A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Two methods for pricing swing contracts using neural networks or explicit functions.
We characterize the value of swing contracts in continuous time as the unique viscosity solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with suitable boundary conditions. The case of contracts with penalties is straightforward, and in that case only a terminal condition is needed. Conversely, the case of contracts with …
Study on convex ordering in stochastic control for swing contracts, proving value function convexity.
In commodity and energy markets swing options allow the buyer to hedge against futures price fluctuations and to select its preferred delivery strategy within daily or periodic constraints, possibly fixed by observing quoted futures contracts. In this paper we focus on the natural gas market and we present a dynamical …
Swing options on the gas market are american style option where daily quantities exercices are constrained and global quantities exerciced each year constrained too. The option holder has to decide each day how much he consumes of the quantities satisfying the constraints and tries to use a strategy in order to maximiz…
This paper compares linear regression and neural networks for pricing swing options.
Deep Q-Learning models optimal exercise strategies for option-type products.
The paper solves complex swing option pricing equations with numerical methods.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
Paper solves pendulum swing-up problem using RL.
In this paper we study the pricing and hedging of structured products in energy markets, such as swing and virtual gas storage, using the exponential utility indifference pricing approach in a general incomplete multivariate market model driven by finitely many stochastic factors. The buyer of such contracts is allowed…
In this paper, we investigate a numerical algorithm for the pricing of swing options, relying on the so-called optimal quantization method. The numerical procedure is described in details and numerous simulations are provided to assert its efficiency. In particular, we carry out a comparison with the Longstaff-Schwartz…
A new method for stochastic control based on neural networks and using randomisation of discrete random variables is proposed and applied to optimal stopping time problems. The method models directly the policy and does not need the derivation of a dynamic programming principle nor a backward stochastic differential eq…
We study valuation of swing options on commodity markets when the commodity prices are driven by multiple factors. The factors are modeled as diffusion processes driven by a multidimensional Lévy process. We set up a valuation model in terms of a dynamic programming problem where the option can be exercised continuousl…
We study an optimal control problem related to swing option pricing in a general non-Markovian setting in continuous time. As a main result we show that the value process solves a first-order non-linear backward stochastic partial differential equation. Based on this result we can characterize the set of optimal contro…
The paper introduces and studies hedging for game (Israeli) style extension of swing options considered as multiple exercise derivatives. Assuming that the underlying security can be traded without restrictions we derive a formula for valuation of multiple exercise options via classical hedging arguments. Introducing t…
This paper provides fast estimates for complex option types.
We introduce a new probabilistic method for solving a class of impulse control problems based on their representations as Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs for short) with constrained jumps. As an example, our method is used for pricing Swing options. We deal with the jump constraint by a penalization p…
In Bender and Dokuchaev (2013), we studied a control problem related to swing option pricing in a general non-Markovian setting. The main result there shows that the value process of this control problem can be uniquely characterized in terms of a first order backward SPDE and a pathwise differential inclusion. In the …
An energy based approach for stabilizing a mechanical system has offered a simple yet powerful control scheme. However, since it does not impose such strong constraints on parameter space of the controller, finding appropriate parameter values for an optimal controller is known to be hard. This paper intends to generat…
Study prices energy derivatives using specific stochastic processes.
Study normal tempered stable processes for energy derivative pricing.
In this paper we study perpetual American call and put options in an exponential Lévy model. We consider a negative effective discount rate which arises in a number of financial applications including stock loans and real options, where the strike price can potentially grow at a higher rate than the original discount f…
We give several new positive finite presentations for the pure braid group that are easy to remember and simple in form. All of our presentations involve a metric on the punctured disc so that the punctures are arranged "convexly", which is why we describe them as geometric presentaitons. Motivated by a presentation fo…
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
In this paper, mm-Pose, a novel approach to detect and track human skeletons in real-time using an mmWave radar, is proposed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first method to detect >15 distinct skeletal joints using mmWave radar reflection signals. The proposed method would find several applications …
Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.
We start briefly surveying research on optimal stopping games since their introduction by E.B.Dynkin more than 40 years ago. Recent renewed interest to dynkin's games is due, in particular, to the study of Israeli (game) options introduced in 2000. We discuss the work on these options and related derivative securities …
We use probabilistic methods to characterise time dependent optimal stopping boundaries in a problem of multiple optimal stopping on a finite time horizon. Motivated by financial applications we consider a payoff of immediate stopping of "put" type and the underlying dynamics follows a geometric Brownian motion. The op…
The paper explores coalescent contractions in contractible spaces, providing criteria and examples.
Designing optimal controllers continues to be challenging as systems are becoming complex and are inherently nonlinear. The principal advantage of reinforcement learning (RL) is its ability to learn from the interaction with the environment and provide optimal control strategy. In this paper, RL is explored in the cont…
We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm resistant to observation noise. Our method extends the highly data-efficient PILCO algorithm (Deisenroth & Rasmussen, 2011) into partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) by considering the filtering process during policy evaluation. PILCO conduct…
Computable contracts simplify financial transactions and reduce legal costs.
Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.
In an online contract selection problem there is a seller which offers a set of contracts to sequentially arriving buyers whose types are drawn from an unknown distribution. If there exists a profitable contract for the buyer in the offered set, i.e., a contract with payoff higher than the payoff of not accepting any c…
Optimal execution strategy for merger & acquisition contracts with price impact.
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
A core novelty of Alpha Zero is the interleaving of tree search and deep learning, which has proven very successful in board games like Chess, Shogi and Go. These games have a discrete action space. However, many real-world reinforcement learning domains have continuous action spaces, for example in robotic control, na…
Proposes a probabilistic framework for smart contract risk quantification.
We consider a general framework of optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity about the type distribution of agents. We prove the existence of optimal mechanisms under minimal assumptions on the contract space and prove that centralized contracting implemented via mechanisms is equivalent to delegat…
PhI-GPR improves power grid state estimation and forecasting.
Improved security of smart contracts by classifying them into four categories.
Most energy and commodity markets exhibit mean-reversion and occasional distinctive price spikes, which results in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. To this end, in this paper we present exact and fast methodologies for the simulation of the spot price dynamics modeled as the …
Study on contracting maps and their rigidity under curvature constraints.
We study locally compact contractive local groups, that is, locally compact local groups with a contractive pseudo-automorphism. We prove that if such an object is locally connected, then it is locally isomorphic to a Lie group. We also prove a related structure theorem for locally compact contractive local groups whic…
Study shows some contractible complexes can't have certain immersions.
This paper presents some partial answers to the following question. QUESTION. If a normal space X is the union of an increasing sequence of open sets U(1), U(2), U(3) ... such that each U(n) contracts to a point in X, must X be contractible? The main results of the paper are: THEOREM 1. If a normal space X is the union…
The simplicial volume of non-R^3 contractible 3-manifolds is infinite.