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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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3637261,0891,452 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for surrogate Bayesian model

UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.

problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.

The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.

problem Uncertainty in surrogate models and its impact on inference and decision-making.
method Bayesian inference methods for surrogate models with measurement data.
result Scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate models.

Bayesian deep learning improves building energy simulation accuracy.

problem Uncertainty in surrogate models for building energy performance.
method Training dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Processes.
result Surrogate models reduce errors by up to 30% with uncertainty-aware sampling.

Bayesian surrogate models reduce uncertainty in high-dimensional design optimisation problems.

problem Uncertainty in high-dimensional inputs for complex computational models.
method Variational Bayesian inference for constructing statistical surrogates with Gaussian process priors and KL divergence for approximation.
result The RDVGP surrogate provides accurate and versatile approximations for robust structural optimisation.

This study proposes an efficient surrogate for Darcy flow inverse problems.

problem Efficiently constructing accurate surrogate models for high-dimensional complex inverse problems.
method Sequential Bayesian design strategy to acquire a locally accurate surrogate model focusing on high-probability regions.
result The proposed method accelerates inversion accuracy and computational speed.

INP accelerates stochastic simulations using deep Bayesian active learning.

problem Computational expense of stochastic simulations at fine-grained resolution.
method Interactive Neural Process (INP) framework combining spatiotemporal surrogate model and active learning acquisition function.
result STNP outperforms baselines in accelerating stochastic simulations and LIG achieves state-of-the-art for Bayesian active learning.

Bayesian optimization uses BNNs as efficient surrogate models for expensive function evaluations.

problem Optimizing expensive objective functions using Gaussian process surrogates.
method Study of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) as alternatives to standard Gaussian process (GP) surrogates for optimization.
result Infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

Bayesian method refines surrogate models for accurate full waveform inversion.

problem Complex input/output relations in full waveform inversion make accurate surrogate models difficult.
method Iterative refinement of surrogate models using MCMC samples and progressively expanding frequency bandwidth.
result Highly accurate surrogate model across full bandwidth enables accurate final MCMC inversion.

PDMP samplers improve Bayesian PDE coefficient inference.

problem Efficient Bayesian inference in non-linear inverse problems with expensive likelihoods.
method Piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) with surrogate-assisted thinning.
result PDMP samplers achieve higher accuracy and efficiency than traditional methods.

BITS for GAPS uses Bayesian methods to improve surrogate model accuracy in complex systems.

problem Improving surrogate model accuracy in complex physical systems with uncertainty.
method Bayesian Information-Theoretic Sampling for hierarchical Gaussian Process Surrogates.
result Increased expected information gain and predictive accuracy by targeting high-uncertainty regions.

Study improves Bayesian calibration of mechanical properties using active learning and MCMC.

problem Inference of spatially varying material parameters in computational mechanics.
method Comprehensive comparative study of surrogate models and MCMC algorithms.
result Active learning strategy outperforms a priori trained models in posterior estimation.

Due to the need for robust uncertainty quantification, Bayesian neural learning has gained attention in the era of deep learning and big data. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods typically implement Bayesian inference which faces several challenges given a large number of parameters, complex and multimodal posterio…

2018-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.

problem Improving prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification for multi-modal data.
method Multi-modal Bayesian neural network models with conjugate last-layer estimation using SVI.
result Improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal models.

Deep Gaussian Processes improve likelihood-free inference for complex distributions.

problem Limited flexibility of Bayesian Optimization with GPs for multimodal distributions.
method Proposes Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as a surrogate model for likelihood-free inference.
result DGPs outperform GPs on multimodal distributions while maintaining comparable performance on unimodal cases.

Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.

problem Calibrating aerodynamic models with sparse and uncertain measurements.
method Bayesian latent Gaussian process for surrogate model calibration.
result Calibrated surrogate model accurately predicts aerodynamic uncertainty.

SURGIN uses generative models to infer subsurface flow data efficiently.

problem Inefficient and task-specific inversion methods for subsurface multiphase flow.
method SURGIN integrates U-FNO surrogate with SGM for zero-shot conditional generation.
result Decent inference of heterogeneous geological fields and flow dynamics with uncertainty quantification.

A new method for incorporating preferences in multi-objective Bayesian optimization.

problem Incorporating preferences in computationally expensive multi-objective optimization problems.
method Building independent surrogate models on each objective function and using Generalised value distribution to approximate the scalarizing function.
result The proposed multi-surrogate approach outperforms the mono-surrogate approach on benchmark and real-world problems.

Adapts Gaussian process surrogate evaluation with conformal prediction for better coverage guarantees.

problem Uncertainty quantification and model specification issues in Gaussian process surrogate models.
method Adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals using posterior standard deviation weighting.
result Conformal prediction intervals provide significant correlation with surrogate model error and frequentist coverage guarantees.

LazyDINO efficiently solves high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems with fast and scalable solutions.

problem High-dimensional nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems with expensive parameter-to-observable maps.
method LazyDINO combines derivative-informed neural surrogates and lazy map variational inference for efficient posterior approximation.
result Significant cost reduction in amortized Bayesian inversion, achieving one to two orders of magnitude improvement.

This work improves surrogate models for balancing accuracy and cost in multi-fidelity methods.

problem Balancing accuracy and computational cost in multi-fidelity methods.
method Develops context-aware surrogate models for multi-fidelity importance sampling and Bayesian inverse problems.
result Context-aware surrogate models can lead to runtime speedups of up to one order of magnitude.

A new error bound improves safety in Bayesian optimization.

problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models.
method Introducing a novel error bound using Wiener kernel regression for Gaussian processes and noise.
result The new error bound provides larger safety regions than previous methods.

Neural surrogate predicts SPN rates from token trajectories.

problem Challenging parameter estimation in SPNs with covariates.
method 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations.
result Surrogate predicts rate-function coefficients with RMSE = 0.043.

Paper proposes hybrid modeling to improve surrogate accuracy using multiple data sources.

problem Improving surrogate model accuracy by integrating simulation and real-world data.
method Two novel probabilistic approaches: separate and combined surrogates with weighting strategy.
result Hybrid models improve predictive accuracy and coverage compared to single-source surrogates.

Bayesian optimization improves with transfer learning for aircraft design.

problem Cold start problem in Bayesian optimization for aircraft design.
method Ensemble of surrogate models using transfer learning in a constrained Bayesian optimization framework.
result Significant improvement in convergence and prediction accuracy.

Paper proposes a surrogate model for efficient experience rating in large insurance portfolios.

problem Inexpensive and transparent computation of Bayesian premiums for large insurance portfolios.
method Surrogate modeling approach using likelihood-based summary statistics.
result Reduced computational burden and provided a transparent way of computing Bayesian premiums.

This paper proposes an ensemble of Gaussian processes for Bayesian optimization.

problem Optimizing expensive black-box functions with limited evaluations.
method An ensemble of Gaussian processes (EGP) for adaptive surrogate modeling, combined with Thompson sampling (TS) for function sampling.
result The proposed EGP-TS method achieves better optimization results than single-GP approaches.

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and utilizes the expected improvement idea from Bayesian global optimization. We adapt…

2018-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Rank-based Bayesian Optimization improves molecule selection in chemical systems.

problem Optimizing chemical compounds using traditional regression models.
method Introducing Rank-based Bayesian Optimization (RBO) using ranking models.
result RBO outperforms regression-based BO, especially for rough landscapes and activity cliffs.

Enhances PCE surrogates using transfer learning for expensive simulations.

problem Over-sampling in PCE for expensive forward models.
method Transfer learning from similar tasks to a new task with limited training data.
result Improves scalability and accuracy of PCE surrogates.

This research improves PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks using convexified loss.

problem Deriving generalization bounds for classification tasks with non-convex loss functions.
method Shift focus to misclassification excess risk bounds for PAC-Bayesian classification using convex surrogate loss and leveraging PAC-Bayesian relative bounds in expectation.
result Improved PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks with convex surrogate loss.

Generative Bayesian Computation improves surrogates for expensive simulations.

problem Limitations of Gaussian process surrogates in handling complex, non-stationary data.
method Generative Bayesian Computation via Implicit Quantile Networks (IQNs).
result Generative Bayesian Computation outperforms traditional Gaussian process methods across various benchmarks.

Bayesian neural networks with functional priors improve surrogate modeling in mechanics.

problem Challenges in integrating prior knowledge and quantifying uncertainties in high-dimensional NN parameter spaces.
method Anchored ensembling to integrate a priori information and learn low-rank correlations between NN parameters.
result Effective transfer of knowledge between function-space and parameter-space priors improves surrogate model accuracy and uncertainty estimation.

Enhanced Gaussian process models accelerate optimization and posterior approximation.

problem Improving the accuracy and speed of Gaussian process models for optimization and inference.
method Introduces a random exploration step to classical GP-UCB algorithms, facilitating faster convergence.
result New algorithms achieve nearly optimal convergence rates and provide bounds for Hellinger distance.

A hybrid model for Bayesian optimization handles mixed variables using MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous.

problem Optimizing functions with mixed variable types (continuous, integer, categorical).
method Merges MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous variables, integrates UCTS search strategy, and dynamically selects kernels.
result Hybrid models outperform traditional methods in Bayesian optimization.

A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.

problem Extending Bayesian optimization to a broader class of models and utilities.
method Likelihood-free Bayesian Optimization (LFBO) which directly models the acquisition function without separate inference.
result LFBO outperforms state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods on real-world problems.

Robust optimization and statistical robustness improve robot navigation policies.

problem Efficiently finding optimal robot navigation policies in uncertain environments.
method Combining robust optimization and statistical robustness with improved Bayesian optimization techniques.
result Safe and repeatable robot navigation policies are achieved with improved robust optimization methods.