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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for success rates

A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.

problem Accurate and explainable prediction of student skill success rates in real-time.
method Performance Distribution Tracing (PDT) using a Dynamic Bayesian Network with continuous random variables.
result PDT provides both explainability and accuracy in real-time predictions of student skill success rates.

Study improves efficiency of MIMO systems' sum rate estimation.

problem Maximizing sum rate in MIMO systems with PAPC constraints.
method Proposes two new low-complexity approaches: alternating optimization and machine learning.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.

The muti-layer information bottleneck (IB) problem, where information is propagated (or successively refined) from layer to layer, is considered. Based on information forwarded by the preceding layer, each stage of the network is required to preserve a certain level of relevance with regards to a specific hidden variab…

2017-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new framework to manage venture capital portfolio risk by focusing on deal-level correlations.

problem Managing venture capital portfolio risk, especially extreme outcomes.
method Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence from observed joint success frequencies.
result Correlation amplifies extreme upside outcomes, shifting portfolio distribution toward heavier right tails.

System recommends workouts and predicts success rates using RNNs.

problem Promoting healthy lifestyles through personalized exercise recommendations.
method Two interconnected recurrent neural networks (RNNs) using historical workout data.
result Interconnected-RNN model predicts exercise success rates with improved accuracy.

The state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms has led to a considerable increase in the utilization of machine learning in security-sensitive and critical applications. However, it has recently been shown that a small and carefully crafted perturbation in the input space can completely fool a deep model.…

2018-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks outperform traditional methods in high-dimensional classification.

problem Understanding the empirical success of deep neural networks in high-dimensional classification.
method Proposed a teacher-student framework with Bayes classifier as ReLU neural networks, derived convergence rates for 0-1 and hinge losses.
result Sharp rate of convergence for classifiers trained using 0-1 or hinge loss, with Od(n2/3)O_d(n^{-2/3}) or Od(n1)O_d(n^{-1}) under separable data distribution.

The paper analyzes how momentum affects convergence in stochastic gradient methods.

problem Lack of clear understanding of momentum's impact on convergence and performance.
method Unified analysis of several popular algorithms using the QHM formulation.
result Provides practical guidelines for setting learning rate and momentum parameters.

Success conditioning optimizes policies by imitating successful trajectories, solving a trust-region optimization problem.

problem Improving policies through random actions that lead to desired outcomes.
method Success conditioning, which involves collecting and updating policies based on successful trajectories.
result Success conditioning solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement with a χ2χ^2 divergence constraint.

Deep 3D models are vulnerable to isometry transformations under adversarial attacks.

problem Vulnerability of deep 3D models to isometry transformations under adversarial attacks.
method Developed a black-box attack with success rate over 95% and a novel white-box attack framework.
result Deep 3D models are extremely vulnerable to isometry transformations under adversarial attacks.

AdversarialPSO uses fewer queries to create high-success-rate adversarial examples.

problem Creating imperceptible adversarial examples with high success rates in black-box settings.
method AdversarialPSO, a black-box attack using Particle Swarm Optimization.
result Achieved high success rates (99.6% on CIFAR-10, 96.3% on MNIST, 82.0% on Imagenet) with fewer queries.

Paper proposes a new Hessian-aware zeroth-order optimization for improving black-box adversarial attacks.

problem Improving black-box adversarial attacks on neural networks.
method Introduces a Hessian-aware zeroth-order optimization algorithm called ZO-HessAware.
result ZO-HessAware achieves improved success rates with lower query complexity.

Study tackles discretization problem in crafting adversarial examples for discrete integer domains.

problem Discretization problem in crafting adversarial examples for discrete integer domains.
method Proposes a black-box method to reduce adversarial example searching to a derivative-free optimization problem.
result Significantly higher success rate in crafting adversarial images in discrete integer domain compared to black-box methods.

The paper provides convergence guarantees for multicalibration gradient boosting.

problem Understanding the convergence properties of multicalibration gradient boosting.
method Computational guarantees for multicalibration gradient boosting algorithms, including adaptive variants.
result The magnitude of successive prediction updates decays at O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt{T}), leading to convergence in empirical multicalibration error.

The paper defines successful active management and introduces a framework.

problem The elusive criteria for successful active management in the literature.
method Introducing definitions of key concepts and a logically coherent evaluation framework.
result A strong defense of active management emerges through the defined concepts.

Paper establishes convergence rates and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.

problem Analyzing convergence rates and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.
method Novel discretization of the mean ODE of stochastic approximation algorithms using intervals with diminishing length.
result First almost sure convergence rate and maximal concentration bound with exponential tails for contractive stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian noise.

The paper analyzes RLVR's training dynamics, proving convergence depends on aligning update direction with Gradient Gap.

problem Understanding why RLVR works and its limitations.
method Analysis of RLVR's training process at trajectory and token levels, introducing Gradient Gap.
result Convergence depends on aligning update direction with Gradient Gap, with a sharp step-size threshold.

New convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods without strong convexity.

problem Theoretical gap between shuffling gradient methods' empirical success and established convergence rates.
method Proved last-iterate convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods using function value gap.
result First last-iterate convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods without strong convexity.

Proposes a method to select features for deep learning in noisy, high-dimensional data.

problem Feature selection for deep learning in ultra-high dimensional and highly correlated data.
method Data-adaptive multi-resolutional screening and cleaning with deep learning.
result Achieves high power while keeping false discovery rate low.

Vanguard uses AI to create personalized financial plans.

problem Challenges in choosing features for complex financial planning.
method Reinforcement learning for identifying optimal savings rates.
result Trains algorithms to model financial success trajectories.

E-valuator converts verifier scores into reliable decision rules.

problem Ensuring the correctness of agent trajectories based on heuristic scores.
method Sequential hypothesis testing framework for online monitoring of agent trajectories.
result E-valuator provides better false alarm rate control and statistical power than other strategies.

In many professons employees are rewarded according to their relative performance. Corresponding economy can be modeled by taking NN independent agents who gain from the market with a rate which depends on their current gain. We argue that this simple realistic rate generates a scale free distribution even though intr…

2007-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Large learning rates enhance model robustness and compressibility.

problem Achieving robustness and resource-efficiency in machine learning models.
method Identifying and utilizing large learning rates as a facilitator for robustness and compressibility.
result Large learning rates produce desirable representation properties and compare favorably to other methods.

We describe and analyze a new boosting algorithm for deep learning called SelfieBoost. Unlike other boosting algorithms, like AdaBoost, which construct ensembles of classifiers, SelfieBoost boosts the accuracy of a single network. We prove a log(1/ε)\log(1/ε) convergence rate for SelfieBoost under some "SGD success" assumpti…

2014-11-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces SuccessProbaMax to optimize policy success probability in online advertising.

problem Optimizing policy success probability in online advertising systems.
method SuccessProbaMax algorithm that optimizes for the probability of success rather than expected value.
result SuccessProbaMax outperforms conventional algorithms in terms of success rate.

We present a novel optimization method, named the Combined Optimization Method (COM), for the joint optimization of two or more cost functions. Unlike the conventional joint optimization schemes, which try to find minima in a weighted sum of cost functions, the COM explores search space for common minima shared by all …

2018-08-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Random forests' performance is analyzed with rates of convergence and asymptotic normality established.

problem Theoretical understanding of random forests' performance and behavior.
method Generalized U-statistics framework to analyze random forest predictions.
result Random forest predictions can remain asymptotically normal for larger subsample sizes.

Defense against DL-based lithographic hotspot detectors backdooring attacks reduces success rate from 84% to ~0%

problem DL-based lithographic hotspot detectors are vulnerable to backdoor attacks that can misclassify hotspots.
method Training data augmentation to eliminate intentional biases introduced during training.
result Significant reduction in attack success rate (from 84% to ~0%) using the proposed defense.

Inspired by the unsupervised learning or self-organization in the machine learning context, here we attempt to draw `learning curve' for the collective behavior of job-seeking `zero-intelligence' labors in successive job-hunting processes. Our labor market is supposed to be opened especially for university graduates in…

2013-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte-Carlo pricing of derivatives in the Lévy LIBOR model of Eberlein and Özkan (2005). Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods are generally slow. We …

2010-06-16abs ↗pdf ↗