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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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98197295393 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for success rate

A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.

problem Accurate and explainable prediction of student skill success rates in real-time.
method Performance Distribution Tracing (PDT) using a Dynamic Bayesian Network with continuous random variables.
result PDT provides both explainability and accuracy in real-time predictions of student skill success rates.

The muti-layer information bottleneck (IB) problem, where information is propagated (or successively refined) from layer to layer, is considered. Based on information forwarded by the preceding layer, each stage of the network is required to preserve a certain level of relevance with regards to a specific hidden variab…

2017-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new framework to manage venture capital portfolio risk by focusing on deal-level correlations.

problem Managing venture capital portfolio risk, especially extreme outcomes.
method Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence from observed joint success frequencies.
result Correlation amplifies extreme upside outcomes, shifting portfolio distribution toward heavier right tails.

System recommends workouts and predicts success rates using RNNs.

problem Promoting healthy lifestyles through personalized exercise recommendations.
method Two interconnected recurrent neural networks (RNNs) using historical workout data.
result Interconnected-RNN model predicts exercise success rates with improved accuracy.

The state-of-the-art performance of deep learning algorithms has led to a considerable increase in the utilization of machine learning in security-sensitive and critical applications. However, it has recently been shown that a small and carefully crafted perturbation in the input space can completely fool a deep model.…

2018-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks outperform traditional methods in high-dimensional classification.

problem Understanding the empirical success of deep neural networks in high-dimensional classification.
method Proposed a teacher-student framework with Bayes classifier as ReLU neural networks, derived convergence rates for 0-1 and hinge losses.
result Sharp rate of convergence for classifiers trained using 0-1 or hinge loss, with Od(n2/3)O_d(n^{-2/3}) or Od(n1)O_d(n^{-1}) under separable data distribution.

The paper analyzes how momentum affects convergence in stochastic gradient methods.

problem Lack of clear understanding of momentum's impact on convergence and performance.
method Unified analysis of several popular algorithms using the QHM formulation.
result Provides practical guidelines for setting learning rate and momentum parameters.

Success conditioning optimizes policies by imitating successful trajectories, solving a trust-region optimization problem.

problem Improving policies through random actions that lead to desired outcomes.
method Success conditioning, which involves collecting and updating policies based on successful trajectories.
result Success conditioning solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement with a χ2χ^2 divergence constraint.

Deep 3D models are vulnerable to isometry transformations under adversarial attacks.

problem Vulnerability of deep 3D models to isometry transformations under adversarial attacks.
method Developed a black-box attack with success rate over 95% and a novel white-box attack framework.
result Deep 3D models are extremely vulnerable to isometry transformations under adversarial attacks.

Numerous methods for crafting adversarial examples were proposed recently with high success rate. Since most existing machine learning based classifiers normalize images into some continuous, real vector, domain firstly, attacks often craft adversarial examples in such domain. However, "adversarial" examples may become…

2019-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper provides convergence guarantees for multicalibration gradient boosting.

problem Understanding the convergence properties of multicalibration gradient boosting.
method Computational guarantees for multicalibration gradient boosting algorithms, including adaptive variants.
result The magnitude of successive prediction updates decays at O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt{T}), leading to convergence in empirical multicalibration error.

Paper establishes convergence rates and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.

problem Analyzing convergence rates and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.
method Novel discretization of the mean ODE of stochastic approximation algorithms using intervals with diminishing length.
result First almost sure convergence rate and maximal concentration bound with exponential tails for contractive stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian noise.

The paper analyzes RLVR's training dynamics, proving convergence depends on aligning update direction with Gradient Gap.

problem Understanding why RLVR works and its limitations.
method Analysis of RLVR's training process at trajectory and token levels, introducing Gradient Gap.
result Convergence depends on aligning update direction with Gradient Gap, with a sharp step-size threshold.

New convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods without strong convexity.

problem Theoretical gap between shuffling gradient methods' empirical success and established convergence rates.
method Proved last-iterate convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods using function value gap.
result First last-iterate convergence rates for shuffling gradient methods without strong convexity.

Proposes a method to select features for deep learning in noisy, high-dimensional data.

problem Feature selection for deep learning in ultra-high dimensional and highly correlated data.
method Data-adaptive multi-resolutional screening and cleaning with deep learning.
result Achieves high power while keeping false discovery rate low.

Vanguard uses AI to create personalized financial plans.

problem Challenges in choosing features for complex financial planning.
method Reinforcement learning for identifying optimal savings rates.
result Trains algorithms to model financial success trajectories.

E-valuator converts verifier scores into reliable decision rules.

problem Ensuring the correctness of agent trajectories based on heuristic scores.
method Sequential hypothesis testing framework for online monitoring of agent trajectories.
result E-valuator provides better false alarm rate control and statistical power than other strategies.

Despite the great empirical success of deep reinforcement learning, its theoretical foundation is less well understood. In this work, we make the first attempt to theoretically understand the deep Q-network (DQN) algorithm (Mnih et al., 2015) from both algorithmic and statistical perspectives. In specific, we focus on …

2019-01-01abs ↗pdf ↗

In many professons employees are rewarded according to their relative performance. Corresponding economy can be modeled by taking NN independent agents who gain from the market with a rate which depends on their current gain. We argue that this simple realistic rate generates a scale free distribution even though intr…

2007-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Active management is a term that has many meanings and we have found the defining characteristics needed for success as an "active manager" elusive within the literature. In this paper we offer a set of criteria that defines an active manager and his success. In order to facilitate this, we introduce several definition…

2019-03-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Large learning rates enhance model robustness and compressibility.

problem Achieving robustness and resource-efficiency in machine learning models.
method Identifying and utilizing large learning rates as a facilitator for robustness and compressibility.
result Large learning rates produce desirable representation properties and compare favorably to other methods.

We describe and analyze a new boosting algorithm for deep learning called SelfieBoost. Unlike other boosting algorithms, like AdaBoost, which construct ensembles of classifiers, SelfieBoost boosts the accuracy of a single network. We prove a log(1/ε)\log(1/ε) convergence rate for SelfieBoost under some "SGD success" assumpti…

2014-11-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces SuccessProbaMax to optimize policy success probability in online advertising.

problem Optimizing policy success probability in online advertising systems.
method SuccessProbaMax algorithm that optimizes for the probability of success rather than expected value.
result SuccessProbaMax outperforms conventional algorithms in terms of success rate.

The learning rate warmup heuristic achieves remarkable success in stabilizing training, accelerating convergence and improving generalization for adaptive stochastic optimization algorithms like RMSprop and Adam. Here, we study its mechanism in details. Pursuing the theory behind warmup, we identify a problem of the ad…

2019-08-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We present a novel optimization method, named the Combined Optimization Method (COM), for the joint optimization of two or more cost functions. Unlike the conventional joint optimization schemes, which try to find minima in a weighted sum of cost functions, the COM explores search space for common minima shared by all …

2018-08-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the black-box adversarial setting, where the adversary has to generate adversarial perturbations without access to the target models to compute gradients. Previous methods tried to approximate the gradient either by using a transfer gradient of a surrogate white-box model, or based on the query feedback. Ho…

2019-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Defense against DL-based lithographic hotspot detectors backdooring attacks reduces success rate from 84% to ~0%

problem DL-based lithographic hotspot detectors are vulnerable to backdoor attacks that can misclassify hotspots.
method Training data augmentation to eliminate intentional biases introduced during training.
result Significant reduction in attack success rate (from 84% to ~0%) using the proposed defense.

Inspired by the unsupervised learning or self-organization in the machine learning context, here we attempt to draw `learning curve' for the collective behavior of job-seeking `zero-intelligence' labors in successive job-hunting processes. Our labor market is supposed to be opened especially for university graduates in…

2013-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte-Carlo pricing of derivatives in the Lévy LIBOR model of Eberlein and Özkan (2005). Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods are generally slow. We …

2010-06-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic gradient algorithms have been the main focus of large-scale learning problems and they led to important successes in machine learning. The convergence of SGD depends on the careful choice of learning rate and the amount of the noise in stochastic estimates of the gradients. In this paper, we propose a new ad…

2014-12-23abs ↗pdf ↗