We introduce Markov substitute processes, a new model at the crossroad of statistics and formal grammars, and prove its main property : Markov substitute processes with a given support form an exponential family.
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48 results for “substitute models”
A method estimates causal parameters using a latent variable recovery.
problem Estimating causal parameters in contexts with multiple causes and unobserved confounding.
method Substitute adjustment via recovery of latent variables.
result Substitute adjustment estimates adjusted regression parameters under certain conditions.
We define 2-dimensional topological substitutions. A tiling of the Euclidean plane, or of the hyperbolic plane, is substitutive if the underlying 2-complex can be obtained by iteration of a 2-dimensional topological substitution. We prove that there is no primitive substitutive tiling of the hyperbolic plane $\mathbb{H…
SAFER method certifies robustness to word substitutions without model structure.
problem Certified robustness against synonymous word substitutions in NLP models.
method Randomized smoothing with stochastic ensemble of randomized inputs.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods for certified robustness.
Geometric theory explains substitutability in market outcomes based on production constraints.
problem Understanding substitutability in markets with structured feasible products.
method Modeling the set of feasible products as a compact Riemannian manifold to study intrinsic geometry and its effects on substitutability.
result Intrinsic geometry of the feasible set governs substitutability and market outcomes, with curvature controlling technological substitution elasticity.
Study generalizes Lebesgue curves to new space-filling and fractal sets.
problem Generating space-filling curves from planar substitutions.
method Generalized Lebesgue's construction to new curves and fractal sets.
result Some substitutions create relatively dense fractal-like sets.
The definition of deposit substitutes in Philippine tax law fails to consider the maturity of a debt instrument. This makes it possible for long-term bonds to be considered as deposit substitutes if they meet the 20-lender rule, taxable at 20% final tax. However, long-term debt instruments cannot realistically function…
This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variatio…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are one of the most prominent technologies of our time, as they achieve state-of-the-art performance in many machine learning tasks, including but not limited to image classification, text mining, and speech processing. However, recent research on DNNs has indicated ever-increasing concern o…
An efficient algorithm for k-median clustering in a sequential setting without substitutions.
problem Clustering a sequence of examples without being able to substitute centers later.
method An efficient algorithm with a multiplicative approximation factor of twice the offline algorithm's factor, and an optimal offline algorithm.
result The efficient algorithm achieves a good approximation of the optimal offline solution.
Risk in Network Economiesecon.GN
Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.
problem Network models assume idiosyncratic risk, which can be unrealistic and lead to incorrect predictions.
method Proposed a production-based asset pricing model to account for substitutability between trade partners and correlation in supply and demand shocks.
result Assets positively exposed to average propagation of upstream and downstream shocks earn lower average risk premia.
Develops methods to improve demand counterfactuals from imperfect proxies.
problem Imperfect proxies in demand models lead to biased counterfactuals and invalid inference.
method Practical toolkit for market-level and individual data, requiring minimal computation.
result Improves substitution prediction and counterfactual performance.
The paper introduces a method to improve adversarial robustness in neural networks using randomized perturbations.
problem Deep neural networks are sensitive to small perturbations on correctly classified examples, leading to erroneous predictions.
method The approach uses randomized perturbations to optimize the worst case loss function over all possible substitutions of training examples, ensuring that substitution likelihood is weighted by the proximity to the original word.
result The method achieves performance gains and differentially-private model training, improving robustness against adversarial attacks.
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are mainstay tools for assessing the long-term interactions between climate and the economy and for deriving optimal policy responses in the form of carbon prices. IAMs have been criticized for controversial discount rate assumptions, arbitrary climate damage functions, and the inade…
Flexible Kernels for Protein Property Prediction
problem Predicting protein properties from sparse experimental data
method Sequence kernels using evolutionary substitution matrices and local linearity
result Data-efficient models of protein property landscapes
Meta-model framework improves efficiency in parameter estimation of dynamical systems.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters of complex dynamical systems with computationally expensive objective functions.
method Dynamic adaptation of surrogate model and substitution strategy using a meta-model framework.
result Significant improvement in optimization efficiency, reducing evaluations by up to 77%.
A Constant Approximation Algorithm for Sequential Random-Order No-Substitution k-Median Clusteringcs.LG
New algorithm for clustering data streams with no substitutions.
problem Clustering sequential data with no point substitution.
method Careful risk estimation, linear bin division, multiscale center selection.
result First constant approximation algorithm for random-order k-median clustering.
We analyze the practical consequences of the bilateral counterparty risk adjustment. We point out that past literature assumes that, at the moment of the first default, a risk-free closeout amount will be used. We argue that the legal (ISDA) documentation suggests in many points that a substitution closeout should be u…
Deep neural network (DNN) as a popular machine learning model is found to be vulnerable to adversarial attack. This attack constructs adversarial examples by adding small perturbations to the raw input, while appearing unmodified to human eyes but will be misclassified by a well-trained classifier. In this paper, we fo…
Defect of knot polynomials remains invariant under certain braid substitutions.
problem Invariance of knot polynomial defects under specific transformations.
method Investigation of defect invariants under antiparallel and parallel braid substitutions.
result Defect remains unchanged under antiparallel braid substitutions and changes by half the added length under parallel braid substitutions.
Privacy-preserving syntactic parsing using obfuscation.
problem Preserving privacy while parsing encrypted natural language data.
method Introducing a neural model that obfuscates words in natural language texts, preserving syntactic relationships.
result The obfuscated text leads to better performance on syntactic parsers compared to a random substitution baseline.
We develop SHOPPER, a sequential probabilistic model of shopping data. SHOPPER uses interpretable components to model the forces that drive how a customer chooses products; in particular, we designed SHOPPER to capture how items interact with other items. We develop an efficient posterior inference algorithm to estimat…
PASS protects private attributes by stochastically substituting data.
problem Protecting private attributes in ML services while maintaining data utility.
method PASS uses stochastic data substitution with a novel loss function derived from information theory.
result PASS effectively protects private attributes across various datasets.
Suppose that f and g are Markov surjections, each defined on a wedge of circles, each fixing the branch point and having the branch point as the only critical value. We show that if the points in the inverse limit spaces associated with f and g corresponding to the branch point are distinguished then these inverse limi…
Efficient black-box evasion attacks against deep networks with fewer queries.
problem Optimizing targeted evasion attacks with limited query budget.
method Formalized problem, evaluated benefits of using substitute models, presented two new attack strategies.
result Attack strategies are as effective as previous techniques but require significantly fewer queries.
Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate computational model (e.g. a finite element model). In this respect simulation methods, whic…
Is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) more or less than one? This question can be answered by confronting theoretical results of asset pricing models with investor behaviour during episodes of stock market panic. If we consider these episodes as periods of high risk aversion, then lower asset prices are…
This paper explores how the generalization of substitute classifiers affects the success of black-box adversarial attacks.
problem Understanding the factors driving the transferability of black-box adversarial examples.
method Max-min adversarial example game framework and theoretical generalization bounds.
result Substitute NN with better generalization behavior results in more transferable adversarial examples.
New statistical model improves protein alignment accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in protein sequence alignment.
method Inferred a time-dependent Markov process from protein sequences.
result Developed a new optimal matrix (MMLSUM) for protein alignment.
Optimizes capital structure for life insurance companies with surplus participation.
problem Determining the optimal participation rate in life insurance contracts.
method Adapted Leland's dynamic capital structure model to life insurance context.
result Optimal participation rate is highly sensitive to contract duration and tax rate.
DES training speeds up large-scale recommender systems convergence.
problem Training large-scale recommender systems with dynamic sparse features.
method Distributed Equivalent Substitution (DES) framework for fully synchronous training.
result DES achieves higher AUC and up to 68.7% communication savings.
Hybrid model combines interpretable and black-box models for better transparency and performance.
problem Balancing interpretability and predictive performance in machine learning models.
method Proposes a Hybrid Predictive Model (HPM) integrating an interpretable model with a black-box model, using principled objective functions and customized training algorithms.
result Hybrid models achieve an efficient trade-off between transparency and predictive performance.
The "color" in the colored Jones polynomial is an integer parameter. In this paper, a periodic pattern of the values of the colored Jones polynomial at the second and the third roots of unity is found. If we substitute -1 to the colored Jones polynomial, the value is alternately 1 or the determinant of the given link. …
New proof shows how to fill a square with Fibonacci curve.
problem How to fill a square with a space-filling curve.
method Used Cartesian product of Fibonacci substitution with itself.
result Different proof of space-filling curve construction.
Management of a portfolio that includes an illiquid asset is an important problem of modern mathematical finance. One of the ways to model illiquidity among others is to build an optimization problem and assume that one of the assets in a portfolio can not be sold until a certain finite, infinite or random moment of ti…
Medical deconfounder uses EHRs to estimate treatment effects without confounders.
problem Bias in assessing treatment effects from EHRs due to unobserved confounders.
method Develops a machine learning algorithm (medical deconfounder) to adjust for confounders.
result Medical deconfounder produces more accurate treatment effect estimates and identifies effective medications.
DRIFT uses neural flows to replace distributional regression models.
problem Lack of neural network representations for distributional regression models.
method Inverse flow transformations (DRIFT) for distributional regression.
result Neural representations in DRIFT match classical statistical methods in performance.
Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose effects are simultaneously of interest. We propose the deconfounder, an algorithm that…
This work addresses the situation where a black-box model with good predictive performance is chosen over its interpretable competitors, and we show interpretability is still achievable in this case. Our solution is to find an interpretable substitute on a subset of data where the black-box model is overkill or nearly …
The paper studies symplectic operations on Stein fillings of Brieskorn singularities.
problem Symplectic operations on Stein fillings of Brieskorn singularities.
method Two interpretations: symplectic sum and monodromy substitution in a Lefschetz fibration.
result Generalized chain surgeries and their applications in symplectic geometry.
We construct new families of non-hyperelliptic Lefschetz fibrations by applying the daisy substitutions to the families of words , , and in the mapping …
We introduce several new families of relations in the mapping class groups of planar surfaces, each equating two products of right-handed Dehn twists. The interest of these relations lies in their geometric interpretation in terms of rational blowdowns of 4-manifolds, specifically via monodromy substitution in Lefschet…
We begin the systematic study of knot polynomials for the twist satellites of a knot, when its strand is substituted by a 2-strand twist knot. This is a generalization of cabling (torus satellites), when the substitute of the strand was a torus knot. We describe a general decomposition of satellite's colored HOMFLY in …
Asset Prices and Risk Aversionq-fin.CP
The standard asset pricing models (the CCAPM and the Epstein-Zin non-expected utility model) counterintuitively predict that equilibrium asset prices can rise if the representative agent's risk aversion increases. If the income effect, which implies enhanced saving as a result of an increase in risk aversion, dominates…
Motivated by the construction of H. Endo and Y. Gurtas, changing a positive relator in Dehn twist generators of the mapping class group by using lantern substitutions, we show that 4-manifold $K3#2\CPb$ equipped with the genus two Lefschetz fibration can be rationally blown down along six disjoint copies of the configu…
Value-at-Risk is a flawed substitute for non-ruin capital, leading to misleading financial standards.
problem Misuse of Value-at-Risk as a risk measure, replacing non-ruin capital, leads to flawed financial standards.
method Mathematical analysis of risk measures and their implications on financial standards.
result Non-ruin capital is a more accurate risk measure than Value-at-Risk, necessitating its adoption over the former.
Paper proposes a data augmentation method for LLM-generated data in market research.
problem Bias in LLM-generated data in market research.
method Statistical data augmentation approach integrating LLM-generated and real data.
result Statistically robust estimators with reduced bias and cost savings.
Structured linear substitutions improve both efficiency and accuracy in neural networks.
problem Improving neural network efficiency and accuracy tradeoff.
method Replacing linear components in pointwise convolutions with structured linear decompositions.
result Structured layers provide Pareto-optimal benefits in efficiency/accuracy.