A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new method decomposes subjective risk into epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
The construction of artificial general intelligence (AGI) was a long-term goal of AI research aiming to deal with the complex data in the real world and make reasonable judgments in various cases like a human. However, the current AI creations, referred to as "Narrow AI", are limited to a specific problem. The constrai…
We present an approach to derivative exposure management based on subjective and implied probabilities. We suggest to maximize the valuation difference subject to risk constraints and propose a class of risk measures derived from the subjective distribution. We illustrate this process with specific examples for the two…
Solves equity premium puzzle with time-varying variables.
We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabilities. In particular, futures imply returns for these implied probability distributions. We argue that volatility is not risk, but uncertaint…
Solves risk minimization problem with SSD constraints.
By analysing the restrictions that ensure the existence of capital market equilibrium, we show that the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the subjective discount factor cannot be high simultaneously as they are supposed to be to make the standard asset pricing consistent with financial stylised facts.
This article presents a generic model for pricing financial derivatives subject to counterparty credit risk. Both unilateral and bilateral types of credit risks are considered. Our study shows that credit risk should be modeled as American style options in most cases, which require a backward induction valuation. To co…
Solves the equity premium puzzle without calibrated values.
We extend the Vasiček loan portfolio model to a setting where liabilities fluctuate randomly and asset values may be subject to systemic jump risk. We derive the probability distribution of the percentage loss of a uniform portfolio and analyze its properties. We find that the impact of liability risk is ambiguous and …
New model solves equity premium puzzle with risk aversion coefficient.
The risk premium of a policy is the sum of the pure premium and the risk loading. In the classification ratemaking process, generalized linear models are usually used to calculate pure premiums, and various premium principles are applied to derive the risk loadings. No matter which premium principle is used, some risk …
Optimizes costs in uncertain Markov systems using risk filters.
Framework predicts mortality risk in MAFLD subjects.
We provide foundations for decisions in face of unlikely events by extending the standard framework of Savage to include preferences indexed by a family of events. We derive a subjective lexicographic expected utility representation which allows for infinitely many lexicographically ordered levels of events and for eve…
Pairwise ranking aligns subjective clinical evaluations with objective indicators.
Paper proposes a new approach to GDPR compliance using data protection analytics.
Spectral risk measures are attractive risk measures as they allow the user to obtain risk measures that reflect their subjective risk-aversion. This paper examines spectral risk measures based on an exponential utility function, and finds that these risk measures have nice intuitive properties. It also discusses how th…
Model investor risk preferences to adjust real option valuation.
Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major digital currencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. The methodology used i…
This paper studies the problem of optimal investment with CRRA (constant, relative risk aversion) preferences, subject to dynamic risk constraints on trading strategies. The market model considered is continuous in time and incomplete. the prices of financial assets are modeled by Itô processes. The dynamic risk constr…
This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in fina…
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands. We first study this problem under expected utility preferences with an objectivel…
Develops a measure for subjective explainability of ML predictions.
We run experimental asset markets to investigate the emergence of excess trading and the occurrence of synchronised trading activity leading to crashes in the artificial markets. The market environment favours early investment in the risky asset and no posterior trading, i.e. a buy-and-hold strategy with a most probabl…
To find a trade-off between profitability and prudence, financial practitioners need to choose appropriate risk measures. Two key points are: Firstly, investors' risk attitudes under uncertainty conditions should be an important reference for risk measures. Secondly, risk attitudes are not absolute. For different marke…
This paper considers exponential utility indifference pricing for a multidimensional non-traded assets model subject to inter-temporal default risk, and provides a semigroup approximation for the utility indifference price. The key tool is the splitting method, whose convergence is proved based on the Barles-Souganidis…
A new framework for robust risk measurement and portfolio optimization.
Study optimal reinsurance for insurers with a reinsurer's default risk.
The investment risk minimization problem with budget and return constraints has been the subject of research using replica analysis but there are shortcomings in the extant literature. With respect to Tobin's separation theorem and the capital asset pricing model, it is necessary to investigate the implications of a ri…
With the rapid development of Internet finance, a large number of studies have shown that Internet financial platforms have different financial systemic risk characteristics when they are subject to macroeconomic shocks or fragile internal crisis. From the perspective of regional development of Internet finance, this p…
Bayesian optimization reduces CVaR portfolio risk.
This study measures price risk aversion using indirect utility functions in a lab experiment.
In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of …
We present a network-based framework for simulating systemic risk that considers shock propagation in banking systems. In particular, the framework allows the modeller to reflect a top-down framework where a shock to one bank in the system affects the solvency and liquidity position of other banks, through systemic mar…
We show that any objective risk measurement algorithm mandated by central banks for regulated financial entities will result in more risk being taken on by those financial entities than would otherwise be the case. Furthermore, the risks taken on by the regulated financial entities are far more systemically concentrate…
We introduce a novel personalized Gaussian Process Experts (pGPE) model for predicting per-subject ADAS-Cog13 cognitive scores -- a significant predictor of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in the cognitive domain -- over the future 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. We start by training a population-level model using multi-modal data …
Optimal order execution strategies for brokers under reference benchmarks.
New model solves equity premium puzzle.
Solves ambiguity in incomplete markets by minimizing price measure entropy.
We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent claim as a basis for understanding these phenomena. In a continuous time framewo…
Risk measures for multivariate financial positions are studied in a utility-based framework. Under a certain incomplete preference relation, shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of specific set minimization problems. The dual relationship between these two classes of multivariate ris…
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to the Value at Risk assuming a heavy tail distribution of the stock prices return. We use Markov Decision Process and dynamic programming principle to get…
Investigates model risk and semi-static hedging for martingale constrained models.
Method controls treatment risk in learning beneficial allocations.
Model for hedging price and quantity risks in electricity markets.
According to theoretical models of valuing risky corporate securities, risk of default is primary component in overall yield spread. However, sizable empirical literature considers it otherwise by giving more importance to non-default risk factors. Current study empirically attempts to provide relative solution to this…
We study the risk premium impact in the Perturbative Black Scholes model. The Perturbative Black Scholes model, developed by Scotti, is a subjective volatility model based on the classical Black Scholes one, where the volatility used by the trader is an estimation of the market one and contains measurement errors. In t…