Improved prediction of hierarchical time series using structured regularization.
problem Making coherent forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Structured regularization method for bottom-level time series predictions.
result Superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to previous methods.
An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.
This work proposes a method to learn graph structure for multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Improving multivariate time series forecasting by leveraging pairwise information.
method Learning a probabilistic graph model through optimizing mean performance over graph distribution parameterized by a neural network.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in simplicity, efficiency, and performance.
Proves and tests methods for learning time-series with breaks.
problem Learning time-series with structural breaks.
method Complete proofs and experimental validation of a regularized loss function.
result Experimental results support the validity of the techniques.
Study shows RNNs are effective for trend detection in time series.
problem Detecting trends in noisy time series data.
method Empirical investigation of standard RNNs for trend detection using simulated data.
result Standard RNNs structures outperform other estimators in trend detection.
Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. …
SNS-GAN integrates class labels into generative models for images and time series.
problem Effective integration of class labels in generative models without network modifications.
method Embeds class conditions within the generator's noise space.
result Superior performance in time series generation compared to baseline models.
HopCPT improves conformal prediction for time series with temporal dependencies.
problem Uncertainty quantification in time series data.
method HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that leverages temporal dependencies.
result HopCPT outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple real-world time series datasets.
CSTS benchmarks time series clustering by evaluating correlation structures.
problem Lack of validated ground truth for objectively assessing clustering quality.
method Synthetic benchmark CSTS for evaluating correlation structures in multivariate time series data.
result CSTS enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations in correlation-based time series clustering.
Generative Adversarial Graph Neural Network (Sig-Graph GAN) models financial time series data.
problem Challenges in generating synthetic data for non-stationary financial time series.
method Integrates time-series signature, LSTM, and GNNs with visibility graph algorithm.
result Sig-Graph GAN outperforms baseline methods in replicating time series data distributions.
New method discovers accurate time series models using SMC and MCMC.
problem Discovering accurate models of complex time series data.
method Bayesian nonparametric prior, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), involutive MCMC.
result 10x--100x runtime speedup over previous methods.
Paper predicts future graph structures using time series methods.
problem Forecasting dynamic graph structures with unseen nodes and edges.
method Time series forecasting for node degree prediction combined with flux balance analysis.
result Demonstrated utility and applicability of the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
SOEM clusters time series data with improved accuracy.
problem Clustering non-aligned time series data.
method Generalizes SOFM to matrix input using approximate joint diagonalisation of covariance structures.
result SOEM produces valid topological clustering of time series data.
TADA detects anomalies in time series using topological data analysis.
problem Detecting global changes in dependency structure between channels in multivariate time series.
method Topological Data Analysis for detecting anomalies in multivariate time series.
result The approach is more suitable for detecting global changes of correlation structures than existing methods.
An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the stochasticity of different time series can be compared. The local volatility of the time s…
Paper tackles imbalanced time series classification with a novel oversampling method.
problem Imbalanced time series classification challenges due to high dimensionality and correlation.
method Density-ratio based clustering followed by shrinkage technique for covariance estimation, then generating synthetic samples.
result OHIT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in F1, G-mean, and AUC metrics.
Stanza models complex time series with balance between traditional and deep learning approaches.
problem Capturing long-term structure in non-stationary time series.
method Nonlinear, non-stationary state space model.
result Achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with deep LSTMs, especially for multi-step ahead forecasting.
Scalable method for regionalizing and extracting temporal patterns from time series data.
problem Static spatial snapshots and ad hoc regularization limit effective spatial analysis and resource management.
method Minimum description length principle for fully nonparametric spatial partitioning and time series archetypes.
result Accurately recovers planted regional structure and drivers in synthetic and empirical data.
New method identifies nonstationary causal structures in time series data.
problem Identifying causal relationships in time series data that change over time.
method High-order Markov Switching Models for regime-dependent causal discovery.
result Scalable approach for estimating high-order regime-dependent causal structures.
New algorithms predict causal links better than traditional methods in time series data.
problem Learning causal structure from time series data with challenges in real-world Earth sciences.
method Combination of established ideas for linear methods to identify causal links in non-linear systems, with a focus on large regression coefficients.
result Large regression coefficients can predict causal links better than small p-values in practice.
Proposes a model to detect changes in multivariate time series data.
problem Detect abrupt changes in multivariate time series data considering dependencies and correlations.
method Integrates graph neural networks into an encoder-decoder framework to model correlation structures and dynamics.
result Advantageous performance on CPD tasks over strong baselines, classifying changes as correlation or independent.
Overview of high-dimensional time series regression methods.
problem Estimation and inference with high-dimensional time series data.
method Limit theory for high-dimensional dependent data, asymptotic theory for time series regression, statistical learning methods.
result Main limit theory results and asymptotic theory for high-dimensional time series regression.
NAS for financial time series forecasts using chain-structured architectures.
problem Optimizing neural architectures for financial time series forecasting.
method Comparison of three NAS strategies (Bayesian optimization, hyperband, reinforcement learning) on chain-structured search spaces for simple and complex architectures.
result Bayesian optimization and hyperband outperform other strategies, and RNN and 1D CNN perform best among architectures.
InGRA models for efficient Granger causality learning in multivariate time series.
problem Efficiently modeling Granger causality in large-scale multivariate time series data.
method Inductive GRanger causal modeling (InGRA) framework with prototypical Granger causal attention.
result InGRA detects common causal structures and infers Granger causal structures for new individuals.
New method clusters financial time series into volatility regimes.
problem Finding the number of volatility regimes in nonstationary financial time series.
method Change point detection and clustering of segment distributions.
result Optimized trading strategy based on learned volatility regimes.
New model captures time series dependence across and within blocks.
problem Complex multivariate time series dependence structures.
method Time series Gaussian chain graph models with directed and undirected edges.
result Consistent recovery of time series chain graph structure.
Detects change points in time series focusing on specific components.
problem Identifying moments when specific components of multivariate time series change distributions.
method Two-stage non-parametric algorithm: causal structure learning followed by change point detection.
result Validated the approach on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Algorithm classifies market regimes using time series signatures.
problem Classifying different market conditions from time series data.
method Utilizes path signatures and a metric structure for clustering.
result Established a connection between regime separation and point clustering.
DArtNet predicts time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
problem Predicting time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
method DArtNet learns static and dynamic embeddings for graph nodes and encodes history information using RNN for joint link and attribute prediction.
result Improved time series prediction accuracy on five datasets.
Paper proposes LATC for multivariate time series prediction and missing data imputation.
problem Large-scale, incomplete, and corrupted multivariate time series data.
method Transforms multivariate time series into a tensor structure, models global and local trends, and uses autoregressive norm.
result Integration of global and local trends improves missing data imputation and rolling prediction.
Deep learning detects novel changes in time series data.
problem Detecting novel changes in time series with unknown probability structures.
method Causally extracts an innovations sequence for novelty detection.
result Minimax optimality established for the novelty detection method.
Tackles network structure inference from time series data using GNN.
problem Inferring network structure from incomplete or no information.
method Gumbel Graph Network (GGN) model for network reconstruction and completion.
result GGN can reconstruct up to 100% network structure and infer missing parts with up to 90% accuracy.
Analyzing multivariate time series data is important to predict future events and changes of complex systems in finance, manufacturing, and administrative decisions. The expressiveness power of Gaussian Process (GP) regression methods has been significantly improved by compositional covariance structures. In this paper…
theft package simplifies feature extraction for time series analysis in R.
problem Lack of a unified access point and methodological pipelines for feature-based time series analysis.
method theft package provides a unified framework for computing features from six open-source time series feature sets.
result theft enables comprehensive quantification and interpretation of time series structure.
TEAFormers preserve multi-dimensional time series structures for better forecasting.
problem Traditional Transformers flatten multi-dimensional time series data, losing critical multi-dimensional relationships.
method Tensor-Augmented Transformer (TEAFormer) with Tensor-Augmentation (TEA) module.
result Significant performance enhancements in time series forecasting across benchmarks.
Graph neural networks detect structural perturbations from time series data.
problem Detecting structural causes of disturbances in complex systems.
method Graph neural network approach to infer structural perturbations from functional time series.
result Data-driven approach outperforms typical reconstruction methods and meets Bayesian inference accuracy.
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
Generative model for financial time series using structured noise and signature learning.
problem Creating synthetic financial data to reflect real-world market dynamics.
method Structured noise, moving average model, signature transform, reinforcement learning.
result Model effectively captures key financial characteristics and outperforms existing methods.
Paper introduces machine learning for time series data, improving nowcasting accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in nowcasting US GDP growth using machine learning.
method Sparse-group LASSO estimator for high-dimensional time series data, considering different sampling frequencies and financial/macroeconomic data tail properties.
result Sparse-group LASSO outperforms unstructured LASSO in nowcasting US GDP growth.
Deep model forecasts correlated multivariate time series.
problem Forecasting correlated multivariate time series.
method Deep learning structural model using CNN-LSTM architecture.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various time series data sets.
Structured subsampling improves privacy in deep time series forecasting.
problem Incompatible privacy guarantees with time series forecasting.
method Structured subsampling of sequential data for privacy amplification.
result Structured subsampling enables training with strong privacy guarantees.
ReGEN-TAD detects anomalies in financial time series with interpretable models.
problem Detecting anomalies in complex financial time series with high-dimensional data.
method Integrates machine learning with econometric diagnostics in a refined convolutional--transformer architecture.
result Unified anomaly score without labeled data, robust to structured deviations.
SigTime learns interpretable signatures from time series data.
problem Discovering meaningful patterns in time series data with high complexity and limited interpretability.
method Jointly trains two Transformer models using shapelet-based and feature engineering representations.
result Learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures for time series classification.
TGCN detects seizures from EEGs with fewer parameters.
problem Automated seizure detection from EEGs is challenging and time-consuming.
method Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (TGCN) that leverages structural information.
result TGCN matches state-of-the-art performance in seizure detection.
Generalizes bits back coding for time-series models with latent Markov structures.
problem Efficiently compressing time-series data with latent Markov structures.
method Extends bits back coding to time-series models with latent Markov structures, including HMMs and LGSSMs.
result Effective for small scale models, promising for larger scale settings like video compression.
Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.
problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.
Gaussian process variational autoencoders improve disentanglement in time series data.
problem Learning disentangled representations from multivariate time series data.
method Model each latent channel with a Gaussian process prior and a structured variational distribution to capture temporal dependencies.
result Competitive performance on benchmark and real-world medical time series data.
Proposes a new model to better handle overdispersed count time series.
problem Heterogeneous overdispersed count time series.
method Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Process.
result Significantly improves predictive performance and fast convergence of inference algorithm.