Recent efforts on combining deep models with probabilistic graphical models are promising in providing flexible models that are also easy to interpret. We propose a variational message-passing algorithm for variational inference in such models. We make three contributions. First, we propose structured inference network…
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48 results for “structural inference”
Most structure inference methods either rely on exhaustive search or are purely data-driven. Exhaustive search robustly infers the structure of arbitrarily complex data, but it is slow. Data-driven methods allow efficient inference, but do not generalize when test data have more complex structures than training data. I…
Structured prediction requires searching over a combinatorial number of structures. To tackle it, we introduce SparseMAP: a new method for sparse structured inference, and its natural loss function. SparseMAP automatically selects only a few global structures: it is situated between MAP inference, which picks a single …
Structured prediction energy networks (SPENs; Belanger & McCallum 2016) use neural network architectures to define energy functions that can capture arbitrary dependencies among parts of structured outputs. Prior work used gradient descent for inference, relaxing the structured output to a set of continuous variables a…
Book introduces ML and AI for causal inference.
problem Uncertainty in causal relationships.
method Structural equation models, DAGs, SCMs, and Double/Debiased Machine Learning.
result Improved inference in causal models using predictive tools.
A new method learns causal structure from data using amortized inference.
problem Causal structure learning is a combinatorial search problem that is costly and difficult to design suitable scores or tests.
method Train a variational inference model to predict causal structure from data.
result Our inference model generalizes well to larger problem instances and outperforms existing algorithms, especially in genomics.
DiBS learns Bayesian network structure and parameters efficiently.
problem Bayesian structure learning with uncertainty reasoning.
method Differentiable framework for continuous latent graph representation, agnostic to local conditional distributions.
result Significantly outperforms related approaches in posterior inference.
Paper tackles high-order inference in structured prediction tasks.
problem Maximizing a score function on the space of labels in high-order Markov random fields.
method Generative model approach with two-stage convex optimization algorithm.
result Success in general high-order inference problems driven by hyperedge expansion properties.
Paper proposes learnable topological features for efficient phylogenetic inference.
problem Finding appropriate topological structures for phylogenetic inference tasks requires significant design effort and domain expertise.
method Combines raw node features with graph neural networks to automatically adapt to different tasks.
result Demonstrates effectiveness and efficiency on simulated and real data phylogenetic inference tasks.
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.
Develops methods for structured variational inference with star-structured models.
problem Inference in models with interdependent variables.
method Star-structured variational inference, existence, uniqueness, self-consistency proofs, approximation error bounds, gradient-based algorithm.
result First results for existence, uniqueness, and self-consistency of variational approximations in star-structured models.
There has been significant interest in the use of fully-connected graphical models and deep-structured graphical models for the purpose of structured inference. However, fully-connected and deep-structured graphical models have been largely explored independently, leaving the unification of these two concepts ripe for …
Variational Causal Networks approximate Bayesian inference over causal structures.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal structure inference from finite data.
method Parametric variational family over DAGs, using Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for tractable learning.
result Approximation of the true posterior over DAGs is demonstrated to be good.
Bayesian method for semi-structured models accounts for both types of uncertainty.
problem Lack of work on epistemic uncertainty in semi-structured regression models.
method Bayesian approximation with subspace inference for joint posterior sampling.
result Validated approach recovers structured effect posteriors and approaches full-space posterior.
A new predictive coding algorithm improves machine learning performance.
problem Improving performance of variational inference algorithms in high-dimensional, structured problems.
method Divide-and-Conquer Predictive Coding (DCPC) that respects generative model correlation structure and performs maximum-likelihood updates.
result DCPC achieves better numerical performance and accurate inference in structured generative models.
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon i…
Combines structured inference and targeted learning to tackle causal inference challenges.
problem Treatment assignment heterogeneity and lack of counterfactual data.
method Factorizes joint distribution into risk, confounding, instrumental, and miscellaneous factors; applies regularizer derived from influence curve.
result TVAE demonstrates competitive and state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
problem Efficient inference in complex probabilistic models.
method Introduces md-vtrees to generalize tractability conditions for advanced inference queries.
result Derives first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries.
TRUST improves structure learning with tractable uncertainty.
problem Capturing uncertainty in structure learning for causal DAGs.
method Probabilistic circuits for posterior inference.
result Probabilistic circuits enhance structure learning quality and uncertainty.
Many inference problems in structured prediction are naturally solved by augmenting a tractable dependency structure with complex, non-local auxiliary objectives. This includes the mean field family of variational inference algorithms, soft- or hard-constrained inference using Lagrangian relaxation or linear programmin…
Deep SCMs with deep learning infer counterfactuals from noisy data.
problem Inference of counterfactuals from noisy data in causal models.
method Normalizing flows and variational inference for deep SCMs.
result Tractable inference of exogenous noise variables for counterfactuals.
We propose a new family of combinatorial inference problems for graphical models. Unlike classical statistical inference where the main interest is point estimation or parameter testing, combinatorial inference aims at testing the global structure of the underlying graph. Examples include testing the graph connectivity…
Bayesian hypergraph inference models disease pathways from EHR data.
problem Modeling rare diseases influenced by shared risk factors.
method Bayesian hypergraph inference framework reframing multi-disease modeling.
result Interpretable disease pathways and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification.
The paper tackles partial inference in structured prediction using a convex optimization approach.
problem Maximizing a score function with unary and pairwise potentials in graph label spaces.
method Generative model approach with two-stage convex optimization for label recovery.
result Conditions for recovering a majority of labels with provable guarantees.
Network structures in various backgrounds play important roles in social, technological, and biological systems. However, the observable network structures in real cases are often incomplete or unavailable due to measurement errors or private protection issues. Therefore, inferring the complete network structure is use…
BaCaDI discovers causal structures from unknown interventions.
problem Inferring causal structures from unknown interventions with limited data.
method Bayesian framework with gradient-based variational inference.
result BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.
In this work, we address semi-supervised classification of graph data, where the categories of those unlabeled nodes are inferred from labeled nodes as well as graph structures. Recent works often solve this problem via advanced graph convolution in a conventionally supervised manner, but the performance could degrade …
Beta process is the standard nonparametric Bayesian prior for latent factor model. In this paper, we derive a structured mean-field variational inference algorithm for a beta process non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) model with Poisson likelihood. Unlike the linear Gaussian model, which is well-studied in the non…
Proposes a new model to handle latent structure methods.
problem Lack of model inference, generative form, and unidentifiable parameters in latent structure methods.
method Generative Flexible Latent Structure Regression (GFLSR) model structure.
result Proposed model allows for model inference and leads to potential probabilistic model.
Tree-AMP simplifies inference in complex tree-structured models.
problem Inference in high-dimensional tree-structured models.
method Approximate Message Passing algorithms for various machine learning tasks.
result Theoretical performance predictions and automated entropy estimation.
Online algorithm detects community structure in dynamic event streams.
problem Community detection in networks with temporal event streams.
method Continuous-time point process latent network models with fast online variational inference.
result Online inference achieves comparable community recovery to non-online methods but with computational gains.
Proposes DCNAR for dynamic causal inference from neural time series.
problem Uncertainty and evolution of causal structure in real-world domains.
method Two-stage neural causal modeling integrating discovery and inference.
result Dynamic causal inferences are more stable and meaningful than alternatives.
Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering in the data, where it is assumed that meaningful correlation structure exists ac…
We consider the inference of the structure of an undirected graphical model in an exact Bayesian framework. More specifically we aim at achieving the inference with close-form posteriors, avoiding any sampling step. This task would be intractable without any restriction on the considered graphs, so we limit our explora…
ASVI automates variational inference for complex models.
problem Efficient variational inference for complex probabilistic models.
method Automatic structured variational inference (ASVI) using convex updates.
result ASVI outperforms other methods on a wide range of problems.
LDTA expands LDA's topic modeling capacity with tree-structured priors.
problem Limited expressiveness of Dirichlet priors in LDA for complex topic relationships.
method Introduces Latent Dirichlet-Tree Allocation (LDTA) with Dirichlet-Tree (DT) priors, and develops universal mean-field variational inference and Expectation Propagation.
result LDTA enables expressive, tree-structured priors over topic proportions, expanding modeling capacity of LDA.
Structure inference is an important task for network data processing and analysis in data science. In recent years, quite a few approaches have been developed to learn the graph structure underlying a set of observations captured in a data space. Although real-world data is often acquired in settings where relationship…
Debiased Machine Learning of Conditional Average Treatment Effects and Other Causal Functionsstat.ME
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning (ML) tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expec…
New federated learning method for structured models.
problem Limited federated learning for structured probabilistic models.
method Structured variational inference adapted for federated learning.
result Effective algorithms compared to hierarchical Bayesian models.
VFG model embeds flow-based models with hierarchical structures using variational inference.
problem Flow-based models struggle with high-dimensional latent spaces and lack of tractable inference for graphical structures.
method Integrates flow-based functions through variational inference with aggregation nodes for hierarchical information integration.
result VFG models achieve improved ELBO and likelihood values on multiple datasets.
A new method infers causal gene regulatory networks from parallel CRISPR interventions and transcriptomic data.
problem Learning causal gene regulatory networks from observational data is complicated by lack of identifiability and a combinatorial solution space.
method A continuous optimization framework that leverages observational and interventional data to infer a single causal structure, assuming a linear Structural Equation Model (SEM).
result A provably consistent estimator of the true DAG under mild assumptions.
Paper explores limits of exact inference in structured prediction models.
problem Exact recovery of true labels in graph-based structured prediction models.
method Analyzes necessary and sufficient conditions for exact recovery using maximum likelihood estimation.
result Derives tight conditions for exact recovery, revealing a gap with computationally tractable methods.
Neural EKF improves structural dynamics prediction.
problem Accurately predicting structural response for health monitoring.
method Neural Extended Kalman Filter (Neural EKF) for learning dynamics.
result Significant predictive capabilities demonstrated on simulated and real-world data.
Paper develops robust methods for panel data with latent groups, improving inference under group separation violations.
problem Inference in latent group panel models under group separation violations.
method Selective conditional inference approach to derive conditional distribution of coefficients given estimated group structure.
result Valid inference under violations of group separation, superior to traditional asymptotic methods.
Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.
problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.
New method scales inference for deep discrete models to thousands of states.
problem Traditional inference limits model capacity for deep discrete models.
method Randomized Dynamic Programming (RDP) algorithms for scaling inference.
result RDP achieves low bias and variance while reducing computation.
A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the structure of such complex data, but performing these inferences is generally difficul…
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficie…