Even before deep learning architectures became the de facto models for complex computer vision tasks, the softmax function was, given its elegant properties, already used to analyze the predictions of feedforward neural networks. Nowadays, the output of the softmax function is also commonly used to assess the strength …
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural networ…
In this paper, we propose a perturbation framework to measure the robustness of graph properties. Although there are already perturbation methods proposed to tackle this problem, they are limited by the fact that the strength of the perturbation cannot be well controlled. We firstly provide a perturbation framework on …
Novel method uses information theory to measure causal influences during transient neural events.
Developed neural network for predicting mechanical properties of composite materials.
A fundamental problem in studying and modeling economic and financial systems is represented by privacy issues, which put severe limitations on the amount of accessible information. Here we introduce a novel, highly nontrivial method to reconstruct the structural properties of complex weighted networks of this kind usi…
In economic and financial networks, the strength of each node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interesting devi…
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
This paper introduces a new property of estimators of the strength of statistical association, which helps characterize how well an estimator will perform in scenarios where dependencies between continuous and discrete random variables need to be rank ordered. The new property, termed the estimator response curve, is e…
This work provides bounds on the performance of prediction models in the predict-then-optimize framework.
Study interpolating estimators for causal learning from observational data.
Study smooth manifolds using disc-presheaves.
Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.
We study finite sample properties of estimators of power-law cross-correlations -- detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), height cross-correlation analysis (HXA) and detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) -- with a special focus on short-term memory bias as well as power-law coherency. Presen…
The paper reveals a spinning top geometry in real-world games.
Horseshoe priors improve small area estimation by borrowing strength globally but locally.
We focus on emergence of the power-law cross-correlations from processes with both short and long term memory properties. In the case of correlated error-terms, the power-law decay of the cross-correlation function comes automatically with the characteristics of separate processes. Bivariate Hurst exponent is then equa…
Unified perspective on score matching and new estimators designed.
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
This paper investigates the strength of the trace field as a commensurability invariant of hyperbolic 3-manifolds. We construct an infinite family of two-component hyperbolic link complements which are pairwise incommensurable and have the same trace field, and infinitely many 1-cusped finite volume hyperbolic 3-manifo…
This paper tackles disentanglement in image editing and reconstruction.
This paper calculates interaction strength for translation surfaces with multiple singularities.
Based on the misleading expectation that weighted network properties always offer a more complete description than purely topological ones, current economic models of the International Trade Network (ITN) generally aim at explaining local weighted properties, not local binary ones. Here we complement our analysis of th…
A novel method optimizes variable-stiffness structures for better strength and weight.
Synaptic strength can be seen as probability to propagate impulse, and according to synaptic plasticity, function could exist from propagation activity to synaptic strength. If the function satisfies constraints such as continuity and monotonicity, neural network under external stimulus will always go to fixed point, a…
A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.
Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs) are both computation and memory intensive which hindered their deployment in mobile devices. Inspired by the relevant concept in neural science literature, we propose Synaptic Pruning: a data-driven method to prune connections between input and output feature maps with a newly propos…
In this work, we perform an exploratory study on synthesizing deep neural networks using biological synaptic strength distributions, and the potential influence of different distributions on modelling performance particularly for the scenario associated with small data sets. Surprisingly, a CNN with convolutional layer…
We develop a new active learning algorithm for the streaming setting satisfying three important properties: 1) It provably works for any classifier representation and classification problem including those with severe noise. 2) It is efficiently implementable with an ERM oracle. 3) It is more aggressive than all previo…
The paper examines how spike strengths and alignments affect overfitting in linear regression models.
Optimization algorithms and Monte Carlo sampling algorithms have provided the computational foundations for the rapid growth in applications of statistical machine learning in recent years. There is, however, limited theoretical understanding of the relationships between these two kinds of methodology, and limited unde…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
New method combines strengths of two PCL approaches without density ratio estimation.
We present a simple model of firm rating evolution. We consider two sources of defaults: individual dynamics of economic development and Potts-like interactions between firms. We show that such a defined model leads to phase transition, which results in collective defaults. The existence of the collective phase depends…
While it is an important problem to identify the existence of causal associations between two components of a multivariate time series, a topic addressed in Runge et al. (2012), it is even more important to assess the strength of their association in a meaningful way. In the present article we focus on the problem of d…
We study an optimal execution problem in a continuous-time market model that considers market impact. We formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem and investigate properties of the corresponding value function. We find that right-continuity at the time origin is associated with the strength of market impact…
This paper introduces a nonparametric copula-based index for detecting the strength and monotonicity structure of linear and nonlinear statistical dependence between pairs of random variables or stochastic signals. Our index, termed Copula Index for Detecting Dependence and Monotonicity (CIM), satisfies several desirab…
The need for advanced materials has led to the development of complex, multi-component alloys or solid-solution alloys. These materials have shown exceptional properties like strength, toughness, ductility, electrical and electronic properties. Current development of such material systems are hindered by expensive expe…
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
Financial markets are well known examples of multi-fractal complex systems that have garnered much interest in their characterization through complex network theory. The recent studies have used correlation based distance metrics for defining and analyzing financial networks. In this work the singularity strength is em…
POEM predicts drug properties without tuning, outperforming other methods.
For analysis of a high-dimensional dataset, a common approach is to test a null hypothesis of statistical independence on all variable pairs using a non-parametric measure of dependence. However, because this approach attempts to identify any non-trivial relationship no matter how weak, it often identifies too many rel…
We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting propertie…
There has been much recent, exciting work on combining the complementary strengths of latent variable models and deep learning. Latent variable modeling makes it easy to explicitly specify model constraints through conditional independence properties, while deep learning makes it possible to parameterize these conditio…
Paper optimizes private PCA for covariance estimation in statistics.
More than thirty years ago, Charnes, Cooper and Schinnar (1976) established an enlightening contact between economic production functions (EPFs) -- a cornerstone of neoclassical economics -- and information theory, showing how a generalization of the Cobb-Douglas production function encodes homogeneous functions. As ex…
Over the past decades, numerous loss functions have been been proposed for a variety of supervised learning tasks, including regression, classification, ranking, and more generally structured prediction. Understanding the core principles and theoretical properties underpinning these losses is key to choose the right lo…
New invariant for alternating links is stronger than existing invariants.