A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In this work, we perform an exploratory study on synthesizing deep neural networks using biological synaptic strength distributions, and the potential influence of different distributions on modelling performance particularly for the scenario associated with small data sets. Surprisingly, a CNN with convolutional layer…
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
We conduct an axiomatic study of the problem of estimating the strength of a known causal relationship between a pair of variables. We propose that an estimate of causal strength should be based on the conditional distribution of the effect given the cause (and not on the driving distribution of the cause), and study d…
Study explores different network frameworks to understand global trade complexity.
SLOE speeds up logistic regression in high dimensions with accurate signal strength estimation.
A linear non-Gaussian structural equation model called LiNGAM is an identifiable model for exploratory causal analysis. Previous methods estimate a causal ordering of variables and their connection strengths based on a single dataset. However, in many application domains, data are obtained under different conditions, t…
Study on optimizing model updates in performative prediction.
Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.
A new method interpolates between sampling and variational inference using stochastic mixtures.
Proposes a method to create robust linear models with noisy proxies of unobserved variables.
Proposes a new learning method for RBMs that combines strengths of forward and reverse KLD.
Proposes Population Difference Criterion for visually observed subpopulation differences.
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a fully Bayesian approach to modeling with ensembles of trees. BART can uncover complex regression functions with high dimensional regressors in a fairly automatic way and provide Bayesian quantification of the uncertainty through the posterior. However, BART assumes IID nor…
Study robustness of split conformal prediction under adversarial attacks.
Study of billiards in sub-Finsler geometry, including unusual orbits.
CausalMix generates synthetic data with causal controls for mixed-type tables.
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
Proves rigidity of boundaries with constant mean curvature in warped product manifolds.
We investigate Ising model description of dynamics of stock price. The model is defined in near 2 dimensions, one dimension is time and another represents ensemble of stocks, and strength of response of investors to price change corresponds to inverse temperature of the system. At critical temperature, infinitely long …
Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural networ…
Novel method uses information theory to measure causal influences during transient neural events.
Method estimates multiple related Gaussian distributions using Laplacian regularization.
Paper shows softmax output misleads in evaluating adversarial example strength.
This paper calculates interaction strength for translation surfaces with multiple singularities.
The structure of a Bayesian network encodes most of the information about the probability distribution of the data, which is uniquely identified given some general distributional assumptions. Therefore it's important to study the variability of its network structure, which can be used to compare the performance of diff…
In Part III of this study, we apply the price dynamical model with big buyers and big sellers developed in Part I of this paper to the daily closing prices of the top 20 banking and real estate stocks listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The basic idea is to estimate the strength parameters of the big buyers and the…
Synaptic pruning reduces CNNs by 96% on CIFAR-10.
Random forest model predicts tennis match outcomes with 80% accuracy.
Synaptic strength can be seen as probability to propagate impulse, and according to synaptic plasticity, function could exist from propagation activity to synaptic strength. If the function satisfies constraints such as continuity and monotonicity, neural network under external stimulus will always go to fixed point, a…
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer exact formulas for the tails of the distribution of returns of a port…
This paper introduces a new property of estimators of the strength of statistical association, which helps characterize how well an estimator will perform in scenarios where dependencies between continuous and discrete random variables need to be rank ordered. The new property, termed the estimator response curve, is e…
A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.
We consider the scenario where the parameters of a probabilistic model are expected to vary over time. We construct a novel prior distribution that promotes sparsity and adapts the strength of correlation between parameters at successive timesteps, based on the data. We derive approximate variational inference procedur…
High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross…
We provide a unified analysis of the predictive risk of ridge regression and regularized discriminant analysis in a dense random effects model. We work in a high-dimensional asymptotic regime where and , and allow for arbitrary covariance among the features. For both metho…
The paper examines how spike strengths and alignments affect overfitting in linear regression models.
Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a tradi…
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limi…
We present a simple model of firm rating evolution. We consider two sources of defaults: individual dynamics of economic development and Potts-like interactions between firms. We show that such a defined model leads to phase transition, which results in collective defaults. The existence of the collective phase depends…
While it is an important problem to identify the existence of causal associations between two components of a multivariate time series, a topic addressed in Runge et al. (2012), it is even more important to assess the strength of their association in a meaningful way. In the present article we focus on the problem of d…
Inference in general Ising models is difficult, due to high treewidth making tree-based algorithms intractable. Moreover, when interactions are strong, Gibbs sampling may take exponential time to converge to the stationary distribution. We present an algorithm to project Ising model parameters onto a parameter set that…
Bayesian approach improves online prediction accuracy without distributional assumptions.
The recently proposed distributional approach to reinforcement learning (DiRL) is centered on learning the distribution of the reward-to-go, often referred to as the value distribution. In this work, we show that the distributional Bellman equation, which drives DiRL methods, is equivalent to a generative adversarial n…
Proposes -GNF for sensitivity analysis of unobserved confounding.
The structure of a Bayesian network includes a great deal of information about the probability distribution of the data, which is uniquely identified given some general distributional assumptions. Therefore it's important to study its variability, which can be used to compare the performance of different learning algor…
In economic and financial networks, the strength of each node has always an important economic meaning, such as the size of supply and demand, import and export, or financial exposure. Constructing null models of networks matching the observed strengths of all nodes is crucial in order to either detect interesting devi…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or Student-t-distributed returns, given the volatility, has however been questioned. In this manuscri…
PyChEst detects changes in non-stationary time series without distributional assumptions.