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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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20416181 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for strategic reasoning

A cased-based reasoning method predicts rare events on strategic sites using satellite imagery.

problem Manual prediction of rare events on strategic sites is impractical due to large datasets.
method Case-based reasoning approach incorporating expert knowledge for irregular time series and small datasets.
result The method significantly outperforms random selection on challenging applications.

Look-ahead reasoning helps predict strategic user behavior on learning platforms.

problem Optimization criteria on learning platforms do not reflect users' priorities.
method Formalized level-k thinking and contrasted collective and selfish behavior.
result Coordination benefits users but does not offer higher-level reasoning advantages in the long run.

This work explains crises in markets without external news using bounded rational agents.

problem Inability to model out-of-equilibrium dynamics in economic markets.
method Modeling bounded rational strategic reasoning in multi-agent market games.
result Bounded rational strategic reasoning can lead to endogenously emerging crises.

Algorithms are often used to produce decision-making rules that classify or evaluate individuals. When these individuals have incentives to be classified a certain way, they may behave strategically to influence their outcomes. We develop a model for how strategic agents can invest effort in order to change the outcome…

2018-07-13abs ↗pdf ↗

AI uses KGs to assess economic impact of selective lockdowns on Italian companies.

problem Impact of selective lockdowns on Italian companies' economic stability.
method Automated Reasoning and Knowledge Graphs to analyze company networks.
result Identifies strategic companies at risk of takeover during lockdowns.

This article is a prologue to the article "Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling 'Theory' of Financial Markets for Practitioners and Theorists." It presents important background for that article --- why gambling is important, even necessary, for real-world traders --- the reason for the superiority of the strategic/g…

2018-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Investors can enhance their portfolios by strategically using LETFs, especially with dynamic strategies.

problem Unsuitability of passive or static approaches to LETFs leads to undesirable risk-return profiles.
method Demonstrated the effectiveness of simple dynamic strategies in exploiting favorable Omega ratio dynamics.
result Dynamic strategies can exploit the compounding effect of LETFs, improving risk-return profiles.

ENIAC method optimizes and explores complex RL problems with non-linear policies.

problem Theoretical understanding of non-linear policies in RL with strategic exploration.
method ENIAC, an actor-critic method for non-linear function approximation.
result ENIAC finds near-optimal policies in polynomial exploration rounds under bounded eluder dimension.

Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.

problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.

Framework selects real estate redevelopment uses by integrating value, risk, complexity, and irreversibility.

problem Persistent underperformance of real estate assets due to structural misalignment.
method Integrates real-options logic and multi-criteria decision analysis.
result Reduces over-complexification and misalignment in strategic use selection.

Investors can achieve optimal risk-reward trade-offs with bonds and stocks under mean-reverting stock returns.

problem Optimizing investment strategies with mean-reverting stock returns.
method Calculus of variations to derive the entire family of extremal strategies, not just the optimal ones.
result The value of the portfolio is effectively bounded from below, providing a 'guarantee' on the horizon.

FinCARE combines financial data and AI reasoning to improve causal analysis of financial performance.

problem Correlation-based analysis fails to capture true causal relationships in financial performance.
method Hybrid framework integrating causal discovery algorithms with financial domain knowledge from SEC filings and LLM reasoning.
result KG+LLM-enhanced methods improve causal discovery across PC, GES, and NOTEARS by 36-366%.

Higher CEO career breadth correlates with better firm performance.

problem Limited adaptability in complex environments due to specialization.
method Constructed a Breadth Index from 650 CEOs' cross-domain experience, analyzed using regression.
result Higher Breadth Index CEOs outperform industry peers by 9.8 percentage points.

Paper generalizes strategic classification framework and introduces SVC for PAC-learning.

problem Strategic manipulation of testing data to fool classifiers.
method Unified framework for strategic classification, strategic VC-dimension (SVC).
result Characterizes the learnability and computational tractability of linear classifiers.

Study strategic dynamic pricing for buyers with unknown manipulation costs.

problem Strategic buyers manipulate their features to get lower prices, hindering profit maximization.
method Proposes a strategic dynamic pricing policy that incorporates strategic behavior and binary response data.
result Achieves sublinear regret bound of O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) compared to linear Ω(T)Ω(T) regret of non-strategic policies.

New framework reduces strategic manipulation cost for minority groups in fair classification.

problem Strategic manipulation disparities in fair classification.
method Constrained optimization framework that constructs classifiers to reduce strategic manipulation cost for minority groups.
result Empirically, the approach reduces strategic manipulation cost for minority groups over multiple real-world datasets.

Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.

problem Understanding and optimizing strategic interactions in labor markets.
method Formulation of causal strategic classification, theory, and experiments.
result Performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer and labor outcomes, but can also harm labor force utility.

New algorithm learns optimal policies in strategic MDPs with private types.

problem Optimal policy learning in strategic MDPs with private types and information asymmetry.
method PLAN algorithm using instrumental variable regression and pessimism principle.
result PLAN achieves near-optimal policy with 1/K1 / \sqrt{K} optimality.

Deep neural network (DNN) has demonstrated its success in multiple domains. However, DNN models are inherently vulnerable to adversarial examples, which are generated by adding adversarial perturbations to benign inputs to fool the DNN model to misclassify. In this paper, we present a cross-layer strategic ensemble fra…

2019-10-01abs ↗pdf ↗

New findings show strategic interactions can undermine model expressiveness in machine learning.

problem How strategic interactions affect model performance in machine learning.
method Analyzing model expressiveness and strategic interactions in various machine learning settings.
result Optimizing over less expressive model classes can lead to better equilibrium outcomes in strategic environments.

Consequential decision-making typically incentivizes individuals to behave strategically, tailoring their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. A long line of work has therefore sought to counteract strategic behavior by designing more conservative decision boundaries in an effort to increase robustness to th…

2018-08-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Study allocates resources to strategic agents while balancing cost and incentives.

problem Dynamic allocation of reusable resources to strategic agents with private valuations under long-term cost constraints.
method Incentive-aware framework combining epoch-based lazy updates and randomized exploration rounds.
result Achieves ildeO(T) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) social welfare regret, satisfies all cost constraints, and ensures incentive alignment.

CFRecs uses counterfactual reasoning to improve graph-based recommendations in real estate.

problem Improving model interpretability and actionable insights in graph-based recommender systems.
method A two-stage architecture combining GNN and Graph-VAE to propose minimal yet impactful changes in graph structure and node attributes.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in delivering actionable recommendations for home buyers and sellers.

The paper analyzes trading strategies in a competitive market with incomplete information.

problem Strategic trading under uncertainty when firms lack full knowledge of competitors' strategies.
method Bayesian games framework to incorporate uncertainty and derive optimal trading strategies.
result Uncertainty significantly impacts trading strategies compared to complete information scenarios.

Algorithm learns optimal coordination for strategic agents in uncertain settings.

problem Optimizing rewards for strategic agents with private types and actions.
method Combines delaying mechanism, reward angle estimation, and LinUCB algorithm.
result Near optimal regret bound of O~(T)\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) for learning optimal policy.

Randomised classifiers outperform deterministic ones in strategic classification.

problem Strategic modification of features by agents in classification tasks.
method Theoretical analysis of randomised classifiers in strategic classification.
result Randomised classifiers can achieve better accuracy than deterministic ones under certain conditions.

Study one-shot strategic classification under unknown costs, improving worst-case accuracy.

problem Learning robust decision rules in strategic settings with unknown user costs.
method Formal study of one-shot strategic classification, framing as a minimax problem, designing efficient algorithms for full-batch and stochastic settings.
result Proves efficient algorithms converge to minimax solution, revealing dual norm regularization's value.

Consequential decision-making incentivizes individuals to strategically adapt their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. While a long line of work has viewed strategic adaptation as gaming and attempted to mitigate its effects, recent work has instead sought to design classifiers that incentivize individuals…

2019-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider a symmetric multi-players zero-sum game with two strategic variables. There are nn players, n3n\geq 3. Each player is denoted by ii. Two strategic variables are tit_i and sis_i, i{1,,n}i\in \{1, \dots, n\}. They are related by invertible functions. Using the minimax theorem by \cite{sion} we will show that Nas…

2018-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

We study a strategic version of the multi-armed bandit problem, where each arm is an individual strategic agent and we, the principal, pull one arm each round. When pulled, the arm receives some private reward vav_a and can choose an amount xax_a to pass on to the principal (keeping vaxav_a-x_a for itself). All non-pulle…

2017-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

COBRA addresses strategic behavior in online platforms by ensuring truthful reporting without monetary incentives.

problem Ensuring truthful reporting from strategic agents in online platforms.
method Proposes COBRA, an algorithm for contextual bandits involving strategic agents that disincentivizes strategic behavior.
result COBRA achieves sub-linear regret guarantee and incentive compatibility without monetary incentives.

Strategic feature manipulation helps learners identify meaningful variables in online regression settings.

problem Strategic feature manipulation poses a challenge for learners in online regression settings.
method Investigates how strategic feature manipulation by individuals can help learners recover meaningful features.
result Simple learner behavior can help accurately recover meaningful features and incentivize feature improvement.

The results of a learning process depend on the input data. There are cases in which an adversary can strategically tamper with the input data to affect the outcome of the learning process. While some datasets are difficult to attack, many others are susceptible to manipulation. A resourceful attacker can tamper with l…

2019-01-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper deals with the explicit design of strategy formulations to make the best strategic choices from a conventional matrix form of representing strategic choices. The explicit strategy formulation is an analytical model which is targeted to provide a mathematical strategy framework to find the best moment for str…

2019-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper tackles performative policy learning with strategic agents, improving scalability and generalizability.

problem Strategic agents adjust their features in response to a released policy, causing endogenous distribution shifts.
method Relaxing parametric assumptions, the paper uncovers a low-dimensional structure in distribution shifts and proposes a gradient-based policy optimization algorithm.
result The proposed algorithm achieves high sample efficiency and provides theoretical guarantees for convergence.

Optimized portfolio turnover strategies enhance wealth and reduce costs.

problem Minimizing transaction costs and maximizing wealth in small to medium-sized portfolios.
method Dynamic multi-period model with column generation algorithm to minimize turnover constraints.
result The proposed model leads to higher portfolio values and lower transaction costs compared to a naive model.

Strategic brokers exploit private information in broker-mediated markets, affecting informed traders' performance.

problem Strategic interactions and information leakage in broker-mediated markets.
method Study of strategic trading behavior and information leakage in a broker-mediated market.
result Brokers hold a strategic advantage over informed traders due to information leakage in trading flows.

This paper tackles online strategic decision making with asymmetry and knowledge transportability.

problem Strategic decision making with information asymmetry and knowledge transportability challenges.
method Developed a sample-efficient algorithm for online learning under these conditions.
result Proved sample complexity of O(1/ε2)O(1/ε^2) for learning an εε-optimal policy.