Consequential decision-making typically incentivizes individuals to behave strategically, tailoring their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. A long line of work has therefore sought to counteract strategic behavior by designing more conservative decision boundaries in an effort to increase robustness to th…
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48 results for “strategic decisions”
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.
We are witnessing an increasing use of data-driven predictive models to inform decisions. As decisions have implications for individuals and society, there is increasing pressure on decision makers to be transparent about their decision policies. At the same time, individuals may use knowledge, gained by transparency, …
This paper deals with the explicit design of strategy formulations to make the best strategic choices from a conventional matrix form of representing strategic choices. The explicit strategy formulation is an analytical model which is targeted to provide a mathematical strategy framework to find the best moment for str…
The paper tackles strategic behavior in decision-making with counterfactual explanations.
problem Finding optimal counterfactual explanations and policies in a strategic setting.
method NP-hard problem, greedy algorithm, submodularity, randomized algorithm, matroid constraint.
result Optimal counterfactual explanations and policies increase utility.
This paper tackles online strategic decision making with asymmetry and knowledge transportability.
problem Strategic decision making with information asymmetry and knowledge transportability challenges.
method Developed a sample-efficient algorithm for online learning under these conditions.
result Proved sample complexity of for learning an -optimal policy.
Consequential decision-making incentivizes individuals to strategically adapt their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. While a long line of work has viewed strategic adaptation as gaming and attempted to mitigate its effects, recent work has instead sought to design classifiers that incentivize individuals…
New algorithm learns optimal policies in strategic MDPs with private types.
problem Optimal policy learning in strategic MDPs with private types and information asymmetry.
method PLAN algorithm using instrumental variable regression and pessimism principle.
result PLAN achieves near-optimal policy with optimality.
Strategic feature selection in high-stakes domains like healthcare.
problem Strategic manipulation of input features in algorithmic predictors.
method Formal study of strategic classification through feature selection and ridge regularization.
result Excluding individual features based on manipulability is generally suboptimal.
Study examines strategic exit timing in uncertain competition.
problem Timing of strategic exit decisions in competitive markets with uncertainty.
method Constructs a stochastic game equilibrium for exit strategies involving state variable and posterior belief process.
result Unique equilibrium found for symmetric Bayesian players.
Study optimal treatment assignment policies under strategic agent responses.
problem Learning optimal treatment policies with strategic agents complicates estimation.
method Dynamic model with threshold convergence to mean-field equilibrium, consistent estimator for policy gradient.
result Threshold for treatment assignment converges to mean-field equilibrium threshold under large but finite number of agents.
New framework reduces strategic manipulation cost for minority groups in fair classification.
problem Strategic manipulation disparities in fair classification.
method Constrained optimization framework that constructs classifiers to reduce strategic manipulation cost for minority groups.
result Empirically, the approach reduces strategic manipulation cost for minority groups over multiple real-world datasets.
User strategization undermines algorithmic trustworthiness.
problem User strategic behavior corrupts algorithmic data and trust.
method Modeling user-platform interactions as a game, analyzing strategic behavior's short-term benefits and long-term harms.
result User strategization can initially benefit platforms but ultimately harms their ability to make accurate decisions.
Algorithms are often used to produce decision-making rules that classify or evaluate individuals. When these individuals have incentives to be classified a certain way, they may behave strategically to influence their outcomes. We develop a model for how strategic agents can invest effort in order to change the outcome…
With the industry trend of shifting from a traditional hierarchical approach to flatter management structure, crowdsourced performance assessment gained mainstream popularity. One fundamental challenge of crowdsourced performance assessment is the risks that personal interest can introduce distortions of facts, especia…
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
problem Predictions that affect the outcomes they predict, leading to undesirable distribution shift.
method Risk minimization framework combining statistics, game theory, and causality.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for retraining to converge to a performatively stable point of minimal loss.
Valuing Post-Revenue Biopharmaceutical Assets with Pfizer's Current Portfolio as a Case Studyq-fin.PR
This study improves valuation of post-revenue biopharmaceutical assets using Pfizer's data.
problem Accurate valuation of post-revenue drug assets in biotech and pharma.
method Historical sales data analysis to forecast future sales and calculate Net Present Value.
result Demonstrates a method for more informed investment decisions in biotech and pharma.
Study one-shot strategic classification under unknown costs, improving worst-case accuracy.
problem Learning robust decision rules in strategic settings with unknown user costs.
method Formal study of one-shot strategic classification, framing as a minimax problem, designing efficient algorithms for full-batch and stochastic settings.
result Proves efficient algorithms converge to minimax solution, revealing dual norm regularization's value.
A Real-Options-Aware Multi-Criteria Framework for Ex-Ante Real Estate Redevelopment Use Selectionq-fin.GN
Framework selects real estate redevelopment uses by integrating value, risk, complexity, and irreversibility.
problem Persistent underperformance of real estate assets due to structural misalignment.
method Integrates real-options logic and multi-criteria decision analysis.
result Reduces over-complexification and misalignment in strategic use selection.
We utilize Wi-Fi communications from smartphones to predict their mobility mode, i.e. walking, biking and driving. Wi-Fi sensors were deployed at four strategic locations in a closed loop on streets in downtown Toronto. Deep neural network (Multilayer Perceptron) along with three decision tree based classifiers (Decisi…
The purpose of this article is to propose a new "theory," the Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets (SAFM) theory, that explains the operation of financial markets using the analytical perspective of an enlightened gambler. The gambler understands that all opportunities for superior performance arise from suboptimal …
The dynamics of many socioeconomic systems is determined by the decision making process of agents. The decision process depends on agent's characteristics, such as preferences, risk aversion, behavioral biases, etc.. In addition, in some systems the size of agents can be highly heterogeneous leading to very different i…
The paper develops classifiers that encourage positive adaptation in machine learning settings.
problem Strategic behavior by decision subjects leads to performance loss in machine learning models.
method Formulates a two-stage game to characterize optimal strategies for model designers and decision subjects.
result Trained classifiers maintain accuracy while inducing higher improvement and less manipulation.
This paper introduces DCE for better counterfactual explanations using optimal transport.
problem Lack of nuanced distributional characteristics in existing counterfactual explanations.
method Formulates a chance-constrained optimization problem using optimal transport to derive counterfactual distributions.
result DCE provides deeper insights into decision-making models by aligning counterfactual distributions with factual ones.
The paper develops an economic foundation for multi-agent learning in markets.
problem Learning dynamics in markets with strategic externalities.
method A two-phase incentive mechanism that estimates and uses implementable transfers to steer long-run dynamics.
result The mechanism achieves sublinear social-welfare regret and asymptotically optimal welfare under mild rationality and exploration conditions.
Game theory models storage investment to balance market competition and profits.
problem Strategic storage investment impacts electricity market prices and revenues.
method Formulated a non-cooperative game between investors to model strategic storage decisions.
result Increasing storage capacity reduces individual profits but increases total investment.
Abstract MDPs enable strategic exploration and fast reward transfer in complex environments.
problem Challenging to learn accurate MDPs for high-dimensional states.
method Learn an abstract MDP over low-dimensional coarse states, using an abstraction function.
result Achieves superhuman performance on Pitfall! and higher reward with fewer samples.
LLMs can collude in market divisions, maximizing profits.
problem Strategic collusion of LLM agents in multi-commodity markets.
method Examined LLMs in Cournot competition frameworks, analyzing pricing and resource allocation strategies.
result LLMs can monopolize specific commodities without direct human input or explicit collusion commands.
Study examines pricing strategies in competitive supply chains with discrete prices.
problem Inaccurate assumptions in traditional SC models for pricing decisions.
method Examines a SC model with one supplier and two manufacturers, considering customer demand segmentation and discrete price setting.
result Nash equilibria among manufacturers are not unique, and low denomination factors can lead to instability.
AI enhances bank credit risk management through deep learning and data analysis.
problem Inaccurate credit decisions and potential risks in bank credit risk management.
method Innovative application of AI technology, including deep learning and big data analysis.
result AI provides more accurate and comprehensive credit decision support, reducing risks and losses.
Academic research in the field of autonomous vehicles has reached high popularity in recent years related to several topics as sensor technologies, V2X communications, safety, security, decision making, control, and even legal and standardization rules. Besides classic control design approaches, Artificial Intelligence…
In illiquid markets, option traders may have an incentive to increase their portfolio value by using their impact on the dynamics of the underlying. We provide a mathematical framework within which to value derivatives under market impact in a multi-player framework by introducing strategic interactions into the Almgre…
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…
DefogGAN: Predicting Hidden Information in the StarCraft Fog of War with Generative Adversarial Netscs.LG
DefogGAN predicts hidden RTS game information to aid strategic decision-making.
problem Predicting hidden information in real-time strategy games like StarCraft.
method Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with pyramidal reconstruction loss.
result DefogGAN predicts enemy buildings and combat units as accurately as professional players.
This paper argues, first, that a major problem in the planning of large infrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such misinformation generates. Second, it explores the causes of misinformation and risk…
Evaluating AI investment strategies
problem Auditing a black-box algorithmic decision-maker
method Exact decomposition of cumulative regret
result Cumulative regret equals sum of per-period covariances
New framework for robust uncertainty quantification in strategic settings.
problem Machine learning model predictions can be strategically altered by informed agents.
method Strategic Conformal Prediction framework
result Theoretical guarantees and experimental validation show remarkable effectiveness.
Paper generalizes strategic classification framework and introduces SVC for PAC-learning.
problem Strategic manipulation of testing data to fool classifiers.
method Unified framework for strategic classification, strategic VC-dimension (SVC).
result Characterizes the learnability and computational tractability of linear classifiers.
Study strategic dynamic pricing for buyers with unknown manipulation costs.
problem Strategic buyers manipulate their features to get lower prices, hindering profit maximization.
method Proposes a strategic dynamic pricing policy that incorporates strategic behavior and binary response data.
result Achieves sublinear regret bound of compared to linear regret of non-strategic policies.
Framework identifies causal factors of climate change using correlations and machine learning.
problem Understanding socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions and climate change.
method Three-step framework: correlation analysis, causal discovery, LLM interpretations.
result Adaptable solutions for data-driven policy-making and strategic decision-making.
Calibrated models can lead to miscalibrated aggregations in strategic interactions.
problem Miscalibration in aggregated predictions from multiple calibrated models.
method Analysis of strategic interactions between calibrated predictors, proving conditions for miscalibration and comparing VCG and Brier-score aggregation methods.
result VCG aggregation method outperforms Brier-score in strategic settings, providing robustness and comparable accuracy.
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
problem Understanding and optimizing strategic interactions in labor markets.
method Formulation of causal strategic classification, theory, and experiments.
result Performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer and labor outcomes, but can also harm labor force utility.
This paper tackles sandbagging in AI safety evaluations.
problem AI agents may hide dangerous capabilities to avoid being deactivated.
method Developed a simple model of strategic deception in sequential decision-making tasks.
result Demonstrated that optimal rational agents exhibit sandbagging behavior.
Although modern portfolio theory has been in existence for over 60 years, fund managers often struggle to get its models to produce reliable portfolio allocations without strongly constraining the decision vector by tight bands of strategic allocation targets. The two main root causes to this problem are inadequate par…
Deep neural network (DNN) has demonstrated its success in multiple domains. However, DNN models are inherently vulnerable to adversarial examples, which are generated by adding adversarial perturbations to benign inputs to fool the DNN model to misclassify. In this paper, we present a cross-layer strategic ensemble fra…
New findings show strategic interactions can undermine model expressiveness in machine learning.
problem How strategic interactions affect model performance in machine learning.
method Analyzing model expressiveness and strategic interactions in various machine learning settings.
result Optimizing over less expressive model classes can lead to better equilibrium outcomes in strategic environments.
To integrate strategic, tactical and operational decisions, the two-stage optimization has been widely used to guide dynamic decision making. In this paper, we study the two-stage stochastic programming for complex systems with unknown response estimated by simulation. We introduce the global-local metamodel assisted t…
New algorithm improves insurance company's asset allocation decisions.
problem Strategic asset allocation with multiple objectives (risk, return, solvency, distance to current portfolio).
method Exact multi-objective optimization algorithm incorporating four objectives.
result Significant improvement in portfolio quality and decision-making process.