A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper predicts significant stock price changes using neural networks.
Paper uses TCN with attention to predict UHF stock price changes.
This study improves stock price prediction by incorporating anticipated macroeconomic policy changes.
While the use of volatilities is pervasive throughout finance, our ability to determine the instantaneous volatility of stocks is nascent. Here, we present a method for measuring the temporal behavior of stocks, and show that stock prices for 24 DJIA stocks follow a stochastic process that describes an efficiently pric…
We propose that predictability is a prerequisite for profitability on financial markets. We look at ways to measure predictability of price changes using information theoretic approach and employ them on all historical data available for NYSE 100 stocks. This allows us to determine whether frequency of sampling price c…
This paper investigates the effects of a price limit change on the volatility of the Korean stock market's (KRX) intraday stock price process. Based on the most recent transaction data from the KRX, which experienced a change in the price limit on June 15, 2015, we examine the change in realized variance after the pric…
Predict stock prices using HMMs trained on fractional price changes and intraday highs/ lows.
We observe the effects of the three different events that cause spread changes in the order book, namely trades, deletions and placement of limit orders. By looking at the frequencies of the relative amounts of price changing events, we discover that deletions of orders open the bid-ask spread of a stock more often tha…
This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have examined both l…
FinALBERT predicts stock prices using labelled Stocktwits data.
In this paper, we describe a newly discovered statistical property of time series data for daily price changes. We conducted quantitative investigation of the {\it calm-time intervals} of price changes for 800 companies listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and for the Nikkei 225 index over a 27-year period from January …
Model predicts stock price changes and forecasts using tokenized data.
We study the cause of large fluctuations in prices in the London Stock Exchange. This is done at the microscopic level of individual events, where an event is the placement or cancellation of an order to buy or sell. We show that price fluctuations caused by individual market orders are essentially independent of the v…
Extends BBSM model to incorporate ESG ratings and path dynamics.
This study investigates empirically whether the degree of stock market efficiency is related to the prediction power of future price change using the indices of twenty seven stock markets. Efficiency refers to weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in terms of the information of past price changes. The prediction …
New risk measure uses Fourier analysis of stock prices.
Warrants with stock price dependent threshold conditions give the right to buy specially issued stocks, if the performance of the stock price satisfies some requirements. Existence of these derivatives changes the price process of the underlying. We show that in the presence of such warrants one cannot assume that the …
Study uses Granger causality to show investor sentiment influences stock prices.
We study the price impact of order book events - limit orders, market orders and cancelations - using the NYSE TAQ data for 50 U.S. stocks. We show that, over short time intervals, price changes are mainly driven by the order flow imbalance, defined as the imbalance between supply and demand at the best bid and ask pri…
Improved stock price prediction model using generalized order flow imbalance.
Study examines stock price correlations between Indonesian holding companies and their subsidiaries.
The present paper introduces a majority orienting model in which the dealers' behavior changes based on the influence of the price to show the oscillation of stock price in the stock market. We show the oscillation of the price for the model by applying the van der Pol equation which is a deterministic approximation of…
The Black-Scholes Option pricing model (BSOPM) has long been in use for valuation of equity options to find the prices of stocks. In this work, using BSOPM, we have come up with a comparative analytical approach and numerical technique to find the price of call option and put option and considered these two prices as b…
We address the question of how stock prices respond to changes in demand. We quantify the relations between price change over a time interval and two different measures of demand fluctuations: (a) , defined as the difference between the number of buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades, and (b) , def…
Model predicts stock prices using GAN and RoI Pooling.
Paper predicts stock prices using ML and human intelligence.
The original research question here is given by marketers in general, i.e., how to explain the changes in the desired timescale of the market. Tangled String, a sequence visualization tool based on the metaphor where contexts in a sequence are compared to tangled pills in a string, is here extended and diverted to dete…
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
Study analyzes price change patterns across different market capitalizations using Markov chains.
Osborne's paradox explained via Bayesian inference and superstatistics.
New framework uses trading volume instead of volatility for stock pricing.
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
The aim of this paper is to evaluate geometric Asian option by a mixed fractional subdiffusive Black-Scholes model. We derive a pricing formula for geometric Asian option when the underlying stock follows a time changed mixed fractional Brownian motion. We then apply the results to price Asian power options on the stoc…
Previous studies of the stock price response to trades focused on the dynamics of single stocks, i.e. they addressed the self-response. We empirically investigate the price response of one stock to the trades of other stocks in a correlated market, i.e. the cross-responses. How large is the impact of one stock on other…
Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and avera…
The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in Chinese stock markets in year 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact…
We investigate Ising model description of dynamics of stock price. The model is defined in near 2 dimensions, one dimension is time and another represents ensemble of stocks, and strength of response of investors to price change corresponds to inverse temperature of the system. At critical temperature, infinitely long …
Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evide…
Previous studies of the stock price response to individual trades focused on single stocks. We empirically investigate the price response of one stock to the trades of other stocks. How large is the impact of one stock on others and vice versa? -- This impact of trades on the price change across stocks appears to be tr…
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
It seems to be very unlikely that all relevant information in the stock market could be fully encoded in a geometrical shape. Still,the present paper will reveal the geometry behind the stock market transactions. The prices of market index (DJIA) stock components are arranged in ascending order from the smallest one in…
We use insight from a model of earth tectonic plate movement to obtain a new understanding of the build up and release of stress in the price dynamics of the worlds stock exchanges. Nonlinearity enters the model due to a behavioral attribute of humans reacting disproportionately to big changes. This nonlinear response …
The probability distribution of stock price changes is studied by analyzing a database (the Trades and Quotes Database) documenting every trade for all stocks in three major US stock markets, for the two year period Jan 1994 -- Dec 1995. A sample of 40 million data points is extracted, which is substantially larger tha…
We propose a class of Markovian agent based models for the time evolution of a share price in an interactive market. The models rely on a microscopic description of a market of buyers and sellers who change their opinion about the stock value in a stochastic way. The actual price is determined in realistic way by match…
In our empirical study, we examine the price of liquid stocks after experiencing a large intraday price change using data from the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find significant reversal for both intraday price decreases and increases. The results are stable against varying parameters. While on the NYSE the large widening of…
The literature provides strong evidence that stock prices can be predicted from past price data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used mathematical technique for dimensionality reduction and analysis of data by identifying a small number of principal components to explain the variation found in a data set…
Robinhood users react strongly to overnight price changes and big losers, trading quickly after extreme losses.
Study evaluates different price response definitions for NASDAQ stocks.