Moate Simulation improves accuracy and speed of financial derivative pricing.
problem Efficiently pricing financial derivatives with high accuracy.
method Discrete time simulation of probability distributions using Moate Simulation.
result Moate Simulation provides highly accurate distributions for financial derivatives pricing.
A new fast method simulates stochastic volatility models.
problem Simulating stochastic volatility models efficiently.
method Karhunen-Loève expansions to express stochastic volatility as sine series, followed by analytical derivation of integrals.
result Simulation is several hundred times faster than existing methods.
MF-GLaM models improve stochastic simulator emulation with multifidelity data.
problem Challenging to emulate stochastic simulators' full conditional probability distribution.
method Proposes MF-GLaMs to efficiently emulate HF stochastic simulators using LF data.
result MF-GLaMs achieve improved accuracy or comparable performance at reduced cost.
The paper uses optimal transport to calibrate stochastic simulations.
problem Improper fidelity of stochastic simulators in scientific applications.
method Optimal transport theory applied to neural network corrections.
result Calibrated stochastic simulations improve fidelity to reality.
PALS extends PAL for optimizing stochastic simulators efficiently.
problem Optimizing stochastic simulators with high output variance and expensive evaluations.
method Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models, extending PAL for stochastic settings.
result PALS outperforms other methods in optimizing stochastic simulators.
Developed a simulation method for 3/2 stochastic volatility model.
problem Pricing options in the 3/2 stochastic volatility model.
method Explicit weak solution for the 3/2 model, using inverse CIR process property.
result Simulation algorithm performance comparable to other methods.
Proposes a new simulator for complex arrival processes.
problem Modeling and simulating complex arrival processes with non-stationary and multi-dimensional rates.
method Integrates Monte Carlo and GANs to model a broad class of arrival processes.
result Consistent and efficient estimation of the simulator using Wasserstein distance.
INP accelerates stochastic simulations using deep Bayesian active learning.
problem Computational expense of stochastic simulations at fine-grained resolution.
method Interactive Neural Process (INP) framework combining spatiotemporal surrogate model and active learning acquisition function.
result STNP outperforms baselines in accelerating stochastic simulations and LIG achieves state-of-the-art for Bayesian active learning.
Scout-Nd optimizes parameters of stochastic simulators efficiently.
problem Optimizing parameters of stochastic, computationally expensive simulators.
method Scout-Nd algorithm, reducing gradient noise, multi-fidelity schemes.
result Demonstrates better performance compared to existing methods.
Surrogate models speed up RL training in dynamic systems.
problem High computational cost of high-fidelity simulations.
method Developed and tested surrogate models for RL training.
result Surrogate models can significantly accelerate RL training.
Efficiently simulates slow dynamics of high-dimensional stochastic systems.
problem Simulating high-dimensional stochastic systems with slow dynamics and fast modes.
method Designs an algorithm to estimate an invariant manifold and its dynamics, averaging out fast modes.
result Efficient simulator of effective dynamics on low-dimensional invariant manifold.
Develops methods to simulate option prices for a specific stochastic volatility model.
problem No method exists to compute option prices numerically for a non-martingale jump-type model.
method Develops two Monte Carlo simulation methods under change of measure.
result Conducts numerical experiments to validate the developed methods.
This paper improves simulation methods for rough Volterra stochastic volatility models.
problem Inefficient techniques in Monte-Carlo simulations for rough Volterra volatility models.
method Comparison and modification of three simulation methods: Cholesky, Hybrid, and rDonsker schemes.
result Suggests modifications to improve simulation accuracy and efficiency.
Stochastic approach improves neural network training for kinetic simulations.
problem Training neural networks under physical constraints in kinetic fusion simulations.
method Stochastic augmented Lagrangian approach using pyTorch.
result Higher model prediction accuracy achieved compared to fixed penalty method.
New method optimizes sensor placement for stochastic systems efficiently.
problem Optimizing sensor placements for black-box stochastic systems with computational constraints.
method Trains a joint energy-based model on simulation data to learn parameter and solution distributions, allowing efficient sensor placement.
result Demonstrates lower computational cost and more informative sensor locations compared to conventional approaches.
We present a framework for automatically structuring and training fast, approximate, deep neural surrogates of stochastic simulators. Unlike traditional approaches to surrogate modeling, our surrogates retain the interpretable structure and control flow of the reference simulator. Our surrogates target stochastic simul…
Study compares models for pricing multi-strike quanto call options with SV, SC, and SER.
problem Pricing multi-strike quanto call options with stochastic volatility, correlation, and exchange rates.
method Comparative analysis of SV, SC, and SER models; Monte Carlo simulation; Milstein scheme; antithetic variates; correlation risk parameters.
result GARCH-Jump SV, Weibull SC, and Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) SER model combination performs best.
Method trains neural network for optimal decisions from stochastic simulators.
problem Suboptimal decisions from SBI approximations of posterior distributions.
method Trains neural network on simulated data to predict optimal actions.
result Induces similar cost as true posterior for optimal actions.
New method improves parameter estimation in complex stochastic models.
problem Parameter calibration in stochastic models with unavailable analytical likelihood.
method Gradient-based simulated parameter estimation with multi-time scale stochastic approximation.
result Enhanced estimation accuracy and reduced computational costs.
GPU speeds up Monte Carlo simulations for large time steps.
problem Slow convergence and inaccurate solutions with large time steps in Monte Carlo simulations.
method Generalizes the Seven League scheme for GPU acceleration.
result Significantly improved computational speed.
New method improves zeroth-order stochastic optimization with adaptive sampling.
problem Optimization problems without gradient information.
method Adaptive sampling quasi-Newton method using finite differences.
result Significant improvement in performance with adaptive sample sizes.
New method transforms complex stochastic equations into simpler ones for efficient simulation.
problem Efficient simulation of complex path-dependent stochastic processes.
method Transforms Volterra-type SDEs into standard diffusion processes using convolution kernels.
result Proposes a numerical simulation scheme with a strong convergence rate of 1/2.
Neural SDEs reduce variance in stochastic simulations.
problem Efficiency of Monte Carlo simulations in finance.
method Use neural SDEs with control variates parameterized by neural networks.
result Prove optimality conditions for variance reduction in SDEs with infinite activity.
The paper studies efficient simulation methods for financial firm values under fast mean-reverting volatility.
problem Estimating the probability of firm default under fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models.
method Approximations using ergodic averages and central limit theorem corrections for efficient simulation.
result Accuracy of approximations assessed through numerical simulation and payoff function estimation.
The paper develops methods to analyze sensitivity in stochastic models using surrogate models.
problem Quantifying the impact of input variability on stochastic simulators with randomness.
method The authors propose using generalized lambda models to emulate response distributions of stochastic simulators and estimate sensitivity indices.
result The proposed method can estimate sensitivity indices even with strong heteroskedasticity and small signal-to-noise ratio.
Optimizes control of infectious disease spread using stochastic methods.
problem Optimizing control of highly infectious diseases like COVID-19.
method Reformulated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation as stochastic minimum principle, leading to forward-backward stochastic differential equations.
result Numerous numerical solutions presented under various scenarios.
AL-SPCE improves reliability analysis for complex systems with active learning and SPCE.
problem Efficiently analyzing reliability of complex, computationally expensive models with intrinsic randomness.
method Active learning framework using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions (SPCE) to reduce computational burden.
result AL-SPCE maintains high accuracy in reliability estimates while significantly improving efficiency.
New method improves stochastic kriging for high-dimensional simulations.
problem High-dimensional simulation models require prohibitive sample sizes and computational costs.
method Tensor Markov kernels and sparse grid experimental designs.
result Sample complexity grows only slightly with dimensionality, improving accuracy and efficiency.
CoolMomentum combines momentum and Simulated Annealing for deep learning optimization.
problem Global optimization of non-convex functions in deep learning.
method Discretized Langevin dynamics with Simulated Annealing.
result CoolMomentum achieves high accuracy on Resnet-20 on Cifar-10 and Efficientnet-B0 on Imagenet.
SDE Matching eliminates simulation for training Latent SDEs, achieving similar performance.
problem Training Latent SDEs with adjoint sensitivity methods is computationally expensive and limited.
method SDE Matching, inspired by Score- and Flow Matching, eliminates simulation for training Latent SDEs.
result SDE Matching achieves performance comparable to adjoint sensitivity methods while reducing computational complexity.
Quantum computing techniques applied to Monte Carlo simulations in finance.
problem Efficiently simulating quantum algorithms for financial modeling.
method Introduces quantum computing basics, amplitude estimation, and Grover's algorithm for unstructured search.
result Demonstrates quantum approaches to Monte Carlo integration and counting in finance.
A number of optimal decision problems with uncertainty can be formulated into a stochastic optimal control framework. The Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm is a popular numerical method to approach solutions of such stochastic control problems as analytical solutions are not tractable in general. This paper ge…
Hybrid model simulates market dynamics using neural stochastic background traders.
problem Lack of realistic LOB simulations that combine historical data and dynamic interactions.
method Neural stochastic background trader trained on historical LOB data, embedded in multi-agent simulation.
result Hybrid model recreates stylised market facts and financial herding behaviors.
Deep learning model approximates stochastic responses.
problem Approximating stochastic responses using neural networks.
method Generative neural network with conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD) loss.
result Excellent performance on benchmark problems.
Develops a new bivariate process for energy markets with improved simulation methods.
problem Modelling energy markets with stochastic delays and efficient simulations.
method Introduces a novel bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian process and a path simulation scheme.
result Improves simulation efficiency for energy market models.
The paper quantifies and attributes uncertainty in complex system simulations.
problem Uncertainty in complex system simulations due to unknown or approximated subprocesses.
method Developed a framework for quantifying and attributing submodel uncertainty using bootstrapping, Bayesian model averaging, and tree-based methods.
result Individual submodels contribute to overall uncertainty, and their importance can be quantified.
We introduce a novel paradigm for learning non-parametric drift and diffusion functions for stochastic differential equation (SDE). The proposed model learns to simulate path distributions that match observations with non-uniform time increments and arbitrary sparseness, which is in contrast with gradient matching that…
Efficiently simulates SABR model with novel sampling methods.
problem Sampling integrated variance and terminal forward price in SABR model.
method Moment-matched shifted lognormal approximation for integrated variance, CEV approximation for terminal forward price.
result Enhanced simulation scheme is highly efficient, accurate, and reliable.
Efficiently simulates the Heston model with large time steps using a novel method.
problem Challenges in simulating the Heston model with large time steps.
method Implicit integrated variance scheme exploiting the near-linear nature between stochastic driver and conditional integrated variance process.
result Achieves near-exact accuracy with coarse discretizations, efficient for large time steps.
This paper tackles reliability analysis for stochastic systems using surrogate models.
problem Traditional reliability analysis relies on deterministic models, which are not suitable for stochastic systems with non-repeatable outcomes.
method The paper introduces reliability analysis for stochastic models by using generalized lambda models and stochastic polynomial chaos expansions as surrogate models to lower computational cost.
result The surrogate models enable efficient uncertainty quantification at a lower cost than traditional Monte Carlo simulation.
The chapter compares Gaussian process models for stochastic simulators with varying noise.
problem Modeling stochastic simulators with varying noise.
method Various Gaussian process models are compared, including input varying noise variance, non-Gaussian noise, and quantile modeling.
result Sequential design procedures are adapted for these models.
GenFormer uses deep learning to generate complex stochastic data.
problem Creating synthetic stochastic data that matches real-world statistical properties.
method Transformer-based deep learning model that maps Markov state sequences to time series values.
result GenFormer preserves target marginal distributions and other statistical properties in multivariate spatio-temporal data.
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods are Bayesian analogs to popular stochastic optimization methods; however, this connection is not well studied. We explore this relationship by applying simulated annealing to an SGMCMC algorithm. Furthermore, we extend recent SG-MCMC methods with two key co…
Stochastic normalizing flows improve lattice field theory simulations.
problem Efficiently sample lattice field theories.
method Combining neural-network layers with Monte Carlo updates.
result Stochastic normalizing flows are equivalent to out-of-equilibrium simulations.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
problem Estimating stochastic intensity of traffic processes.
method Deep neural networks for nonlinear filtering.
result Deep learning method accurately estimates traffic intensity.
Framework simulates market microstructure with stable Hawkes processes.
problem Reproduce realistic market order flow dynamics.
method Deterministic C++ LOB simulator with Hawkes-driven stochastic order flow.
result Derives stability and ergodicity proofs for Hawkes models.
New model captures time-varying volatility with stochastic exponential tails.
problem Capturing time-varying volatility and stochastic skewness in financial markets.
method Normal Tempered Stable distribution with time-varying parameter.
result Model better explains market option prices with stochastic exponential tails.
New algorithms for approximating stochastic processes efficiently.
problem Finding accurate finite approximations for stochastic processes.
method Develops new algorithms and fast implementations for approximating stochastic processes.
result Efficient approximations for stochastic processes can be found.