A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper proposes a new reserving model using machine learning techniques.
Study derives new equation for reserves in non-monotone information scenarios.
Overprocuring reserves can improve network efficiency by using excess reserves for congestion management.
Derives equations for life insurance reserves with interest rate uncertainty.
Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circul…
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
Mack-Net model combines Mack's model with RNNs for better insurance liability estimation.
The article derives a formula for predicting claims uncertainty using the GCC method.
A new framework combines multiple loss reserving models for better predictive performance.
Researchers solved a model of an exhaustible resource with stochastic discoveries.
We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving data across lines of business, and show that they improve on the predictive accu…
In this paper the utility optimization problem for a general insurance model is studied. The reserve process of the insurance company is described by a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion and a Poisson random measure, representing the randomness from the financial market and the insurance claim…
We propose a model of inter-bank lending and borrowing which takes into account clearing debt obligations. The evolution of log-monetary reserves of banks is described by coupled diffusions driven by controls with delay in their drifts. Banks are minimizing their finite-horizon objective functions which take into a…
New method estimates insurance risk dependencies.
Within the Solvency II framework the insurance industry requires a realistic modelling of the risk processes relevant for its business. Every insurance company should be capable of running a holistic risk management process to meet this challenge. For property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies the risk adequate mo…
We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving an…
Paper addresses unbalanced data in common shock models for loss reserving.
A stochastic model helps maintain insufficiently funded pension funds.
This paper studies a finite-fuel two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem under regime switching that is motivated by the optimal irreversible extraction problem of an exhaustible commodity. A company extracts a natural resource from a reserve with finite capacity, and sells it in the market at a …
We propose a simple model of the banking system incorporating a game feature where the evolution of monetary reserve is modeled as a system of coupled Feller diffusions. The Markov Nash equilibrium generated through minimizing the linear quadratic cost subject to Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type processes creates liquidity and …
Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.
Our article considers the class of recently developed stochastic models that combine claims payments and incurred losses information into a coherent reserving methodology. In particular, we develop a family of Heirarchical Bayesian Paid-Incurred-Claims models, combining the claims reserving models of Hertig et al. (198…
New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.
The paper tackles robust control for insurance contracts under uncertain transition rates.
In this paper, we detail the main simulation methods used in practice to measure one-year reserve risk, and describe the bootstrap method providing an empirical distribution of the Claims Development Result (CDR) whose variance is identical to the closed-form expression of the prediction error proposed by Wüthrich et a…
Study examines value relevance of oil and gas reserve disclosures in London Stock Exchange.
RL-CVaR model improves insurance reserving under economic stress.
Optimal control of reserve assets for stablecoins to maintain peg stability.
New method simplifies individual claims reserving.
Chain-ladder reserving is sensitive to outliers, leading to unreliable estimates.
Neural SVEs model complex systems with memory, outperforming traditional methods.
Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the stan…
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to fit a predictor of the best reserve price. This problem is delicate - the struct…
We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to pri…
Neural network model improves loss reserving accuracy and distribution flexibility.
New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.
Case study shows impact of co-optimizing energy and reserve for wind energy.
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
In this paper, we study the stochastic version of the one-sided full information bandit problem, where we have arms , and playing arm would gain reward from an unknown distribution for arm while obtaining reward feedback for all arms . One-sided full information bandit ca…
Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected during a claim's development over time. We present the hierarchical reserving mod…
In this article we consider the parameter risk in the context of internal modelling of the reserve risk under Solvency II. We discuss two opposed perspectives on parameter uncertainty and point out that standard methods of classical reserving focusing on the estimation error of claims reserves are in general not approp…
The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.
Framework insures AI actions with reserve capital, preventing loss.
A method for analysing the risk of taking a too low reserve level by use of Chain Ladder method is developed. We give an answer to the question of how much safety loading in terms of the Chain Ladder standard error has to be added to the Chain Ladder reserve in order to reach a specified security level in loss reservin…
This paper investigates dividend optimization of an insurance corporation under a more realistic model which takes into consideration refinancing or capital injections. The model follows the compound Poisson framework with credit interest for positive reserve, and debit interest for negative reserve. Ruin occurs when t…
Optimizes reserve prices for first-price auctions to maximize revenue.