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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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76153229305 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for stochastic post-processing

Risk-controlled post-processing optimizes decision policies under risk constraints.

problem Optimizing decision policies with risk constraints for better outcomes.
method Developed a post-processing algorithm that selects a threshold based on fitted fallback policy and score, leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes.
result The post-processed policy achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability and meets or nearly meets risk budgets while preserving more agreement with the baseline.

Unified approach adjusts classifiers to meet system-level constraints.

problem Multi-class classification under system-level constraints.
method Post-processing approach using linearly constrained stochastic program and entropic regularization.
result Finite-sample guarantees for risk and constraint satisfaction.

A fundamental result in differential privacy states that the privacy guarantees of a mechanism are preserved by any post-processing of its output. In this paper we investigate under what conditions stochastic post-processing can amplify the privacy of a mechanism. By interpreting post-processing as the application of a…

2019-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Post-processes deep networks with StoNet to quantify uncertainty.

problem Uncertainty quantification in predictions from large-scale deep neural networks.
method Feeds DNN output into StoNet, trains StoNet with sparse penalty, constructs prediction intervals.
result Proposed approach constructs honest confidence intervals with shorter lengths and better calibration.

Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.

problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.

Post-processing corrects bias in ML systems without retraining.

problem Correcting bias in ML systems that are already in use.
method Proposes general post-processing algorithms for individual fairness based on graph Laplacian regularization.
result Empirically, post-processing algorithms correct individual biases in large-scale NLP models while preserving accuracy.

New method removes specific training data influence from neural networks.

problem Removing specific training data influence from neural networks for privacy and regulatory reasons.
method Noisy fine-tuning on retain data to ensure provable unlearning guarantees without restrictive assumptions.
result Achieves formal unlearning guarantees and performs effectively in practice.

Word vectors are at the core of many natural language processing tasks. Recently, there has been interest in post-processing word vectors to enrich their semantic information. In this paper, we introduce a novel word vector post-processing technique based on matrix conceptors (Jaeger2014), a family of regularized ident…

2018-11-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.

problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.

A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.

problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.

Post-processing predictors reduces calibration errors for decision-making.

problem Predictors with low calibration error for machine learning may have high error for decision-making.
method Post-processing with ε distance to calibration adds noise to make predictions differentially private.
result Post-processing achieves O(√ε) ECE and CDL, asymptotically optimal.

Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.

problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters of a predictive distribution are estimated from a training period. We propose a…

2018-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves decision-making accuracy without complex calculations.

problem Improving decision-making accuracy in machine learning.
method Introducing a new measure called calibration decision loss (CDLK\mathsf{CDL}_K) for structured families of post-processing functions.
result Proves upper and lower bounds for natural classes KK of post-processing functions.

Enhances fairness in multi-output models using optimal transport.

problem Improving fairness in multi-output models like multi-task/multi-class classification and representation learning.
method Post-processing method using optimal transport mappings to move model outputs towards empirical Wasserstein barycenter.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed approach on multi-task/multi-class classification and representation learning tasks.

A popular methodology for building binary decision-making classifiers in the presence of imperfect information is to first construct a non-binary "scoring" classifier that is calibrated over all protected groups, and then to post-process this score to obtain a binary decision. We study the feasibility of achieving vari…

2018-10-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a fair post-processing method for student success predictions.

problem Ensuring fairness in predictive student models for educational applications.
method Uses the MADD metric to improve model fairness while maintaining accuracy.
result Successfully improved fairness of predictive models for student success.

Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.

problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.

ForestPrune optimizes tree ensemble pruning for compactness and speed.

problem Large tree ensembles in predictive models consume excessive memory and reduce interpretability.
method Developed a specialized optimization algorithm to efficiently prune tree ensembles by depth layers.
result ForestPrune produces compact, high-performing models that outperform existing post-processing methods.

In this article, we have proposed several approaches for post processing a large ensemble of prediction models or rules. The results from our simulations show that the post processing methods we have considered here are promising. We have used the techniques developed here for estimation of quantitative traits from mar…

2011-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Word embeddings learnt from large corpora have been adopted in various applications in natural language processing and served as the general input representations to learning systems. Recently, a series of post-processing methods have been proposed to boost the performance of word embeddings on similarity comparison an…

2019-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved visibility forecasts using statistical post-processing.

problem Accurate and reliable predictions of visibility are crucial in aviation and transportation.
method Calibrated ensemble forecasts using locally, semi-locally, and regionally trained POLR and MLP classifiers.
result Post-processing improves forecast skill and POLR models outperform MLPs.

Whereas previous post-processing approaches for increasing the fairness of predictions of biased classifiers address only group fairness, we propose a method for increasing both individual and group fairness. Our novel framework includes an individual bias detector used to prioritize data samples in a bias mitigation a…

2018-12-14abs ↗pdf ↗

It is well known that Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods scale poorly with dataset size. A popular class of methods for solving this issue is stochastic gradient MCMC. These methods use a noisy estimate of the gradient of the log posterior, which reduces the per iteration computational cost of the algorithm. Despi…

2017-06-16abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper tackles inventory control with general arrival dynamics and post-processing, improving profitability.

problem Inventory control with arbitrary arrival dynamics and post-processing constraints.
method Formulated as an exogenous decision process, incorporating deep generative models for arrivals, and applying supervised learning techniques.
result Improves profitability over production baselines and real-world A/B test data.

HLTF generates chemically valid 3D molecules with improved topology control.

problem Generating chemically valid 3D molecules is challenging due to bond topology errors.
method HLTF uses a latent multi-scale plan for global context and a constraint-aware sampler to suppress topology-driven failures.
result HLTF achieves high validity and uniqueness on QM9 and GEOM-DRUGS datasets.

New method for Bayesian inference on large datasets.

problem Scalable sampling for Bayesian generalized linear mixed models on large datasets.
method Mirror Langevin dynamics with data subsampling, post-processing for variance estimation.
result Asymptotic, order-wise correct estimation of posterior variance.

Framework purifies approximate differential privacy to pure differential privacy.

problem Achieving pure differential privacy from approximate differential privacy.
method Randomized post-processing with calibrated noise to eliminate δ parameter.
result First statistically and computationally efficient reduction from approximate DP to pure DP.

Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop methods for learning probabilistic models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. The…

2014-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Graph alignment problem solved with convex relaxations for correlated matrices.

problem Recovering hidden vertex permutations from correlated Gaussian matrices.
method Convex relaxations of the quadratic assignment problem over doubly stochastic matrices.
result The solution of the convex relaxation concentrates around the ground-truth permutation matrix for certain correlation parameters.

New method shows hidden state can significantly improve differential privacy in SGD.

problem Differential privacy in SGD with hidden state.
method Proves converging privacy bounds for hidden state SGD, using privacy amplification techniques.
result Privacy bound converges exponentially fast and is smaller than composition bounds.

The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.

problem Accurate short-term PV power forecasts for Chile's Atacama Desert.
method 8-member ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance using WRF model, calibrated with EMOS and DRN.
result Machine learning-based post-processing methods improve forecast accuracy and calibration.

Paper examines fairness of data augmentation methods, finding vanilla Mixup outperforms Fair Mixup.

problem Improving fairness in classification models with limited minority data.
method Uses multicalibration to rigorously evaluate and improve data augmentation methods for classification fairness.
result Vanilla Mixup outperforms Fair Mixup and baseline methods in fairness and accuracy, especially with small minority groups.