Study optimal strategies for unwinding uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
problem Optimizing strategies for handling uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
method Modeling and solving the problem for a general class of in-flow processes, enabling an analytic solution.
result Optimal strategies depend on the autocorrelation of orders; only truth-telling flow is unwound myopically.
Optimal market making strategy for electronic markets with persistent order flows.
problem Market making on electronic markets with persistent order flows.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, characterized by viscosity solutions, and implemented numerically.
result Characterization of an optimal market making strategy.
AMM finds optimal contract for LPs to maximize order flow.
problem Maximizing order flow in AMMs with LPs.
method Leader-follower stochastic game, closed-form equilibrium solutions.
result LPs incentivized to add liquidity when external price attracts more noise trading.
Framework simulates market microstructure with stable Hawkes processes.
problem Reproduce realistic market order flow dynamics.
method Deterministic C++ LOB simulator with Hawkes-driven stochastic order flow.
result Derives stability and ergodicity proofs for Hawkes models.
Modeling price dynamics in response to order flow imbalance in Chinese futures markets.
problem Understanding price dynamics in markets with order flow imbalance.
method Modeling order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics.
result Horizon-dependent heterogeneity in conventional metrics' interaction with order flow imbalance.
Riemannian stochastic gradient descent approximates a diffusion process called Riemannian stochastic modified flow.
problem Improving convergence rate of Riemannian stochastic gradient descent.
method Using stochastic differential geometry, the paper shows RSGD can be approximated by the Riemannian stochastic modified flow (RSMF).
result RSGD can be approximated by the solution to the RSMF driven by an infinite-dimensional Wiener process, increasing the order of approximation.
We propose an analytically tractable class of models for the dynamics of a limit order book, described through a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with multiplicative noise for the order book centered at the mid-price, along with stochastic dynamics for the mid-price which is consistent with the order flo…
The paper analyzes fill probabilities in limit order books with varying price levels.
problem Determining the likelihood of limit orders being executed in a limit order book.
method Developed a state-dependent stochastic framework to model limit order book dynamics.
result Derived semi-analytical expressions for fill probabilities and mid-price changes.
NSFs learn SDE transition laws for efficient sampling.
problem Efficiently sampling between arbitrary time points in SDEs.
method Conditional normalising flows with architectural constraints.
result Up to two orders of magnitude speed-ups at large time gaps.
SNF combines stochastic and deterministic steps to sample complex distributions.
problem Sampling complex probability distributions efficiently.
method Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) - sequence of invertible functions and stochastic blocks.
result SNFs improve efficiency and representational power over pure MCMC/LD.
We examine optimal execution models that take into account both market microstructure impact and informational costs. Informational footprint is related to order flow and is represented by the trader's influence on the flow imbalance process, while microstructure influence is captured by instantaneous price impact. We …
Paper proves higher-order flow matching preserves optimality in generative modeling.
problem Theoretical guarantees for higher-order flow matching in generative modeling.
method Neural network approximations with controlled depth, width, and sparsity.
result Proves worst case optimality for second-order flow matching.
This paper deals with an optimal position management problem for a market maker who has to face uncertain customer order flows in an illiquid market, where the market maker's continuous trading incurs a stochastic linear price impact. Although the execution timing is uncertain, the market maker can also ask its OTC cou…
A new method speeds up sampling of Boltzmann distribution in high-dimensional systems.
problem High computational cost of obtaining Jacobian of flow-based models in high dimensions.
method Flow perturbation method that incorporates stochastic perturbations and reweighting.
result Achieves unbiased sampling of Boltzmann distribution with orders of magnitude speedup.
The study characterizes straight-line flows in dynamic measure transport.
problem Tackles the challenge of designing flows that are easy to integrate.
method Characterizes straight-line flows using a PDE and Reynolds tensor.
result Characterizes affine-in-time interpolants and necessary conditions for flow geometry.
The paper develops a new model for order book dynamics using Hawkes processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of order flow and liquidity migration in financial markets.
method Develops a mesoscopic model using Hawkes processes to describe interactions between order arrivals, cancellations, and liquidity movement.
result Derives a diffusive limit for the order book dynamics, providing a unified framework for market microstructure.
We define a stochastic model of a two-sided limit order book in terms of its key quantities \textit{best bid [ask] price} and the \textit{standing buy [sell] volume density}. For a simple scaling of the discreteness parameters, that keeps the expected volume rate over the considered price interval invariant, we prove a…
Model quantifies market price of trading liquidity risk and market depth.
problem Analyzing the market price of trading liquidity risk and market depth.
method Introduced a framework to analyze market price of liquidity risk, derived inhomogeneous Bernoulli ODE, obtained closed form solutions.
result Market depth encapsulates the market price of liquidity risk.
The paper predicts Bitcoin volatility using order flow images.
problem Predicting short-term volatility of Bitcoin prices.
method Transformed order flow data into images, trained CNN and ResNet models.
result Order flow representation with CNN achieves best performance, with RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1.
Develops a framework to analyze financial structures.
problem Difficulty in systematic analysis, comparison, and verification of financial structures.
method Formalizes financial structures as structured allocation systems with explicit allocation operators.
result Specifies inputs, structural requirements, and feasibility restrictions for financial structures.
Introduces a new stochastic optimization method for deep learning.
problem Minimizing loss functions in deep neural networks.
method Introduces a second-order stochastic Runge-Kutta method and an adaptive SGD-G2.
result The method yields consistent minimization of loss functions and automatically adjusts learning rates.
A scalable algorithm for sampling and fine-tuning models using Tilt Matching.
problem Efficient sampling and fine-tuning of generative models.
method Tilt Matching, arising from a dynamical equation, minimizes variance and inherits regularity from stochastic interpolants.
result Empirically verified to be efficient and highly scalable, providing state-of-the-art results.
Game theory model for optimal trading with end-of-day constraints.
problem Optimal trading strategy in a game between slow and fast traders.
method Coupled stochastic control problems, Fredholm integral equation solution.
result Explicit solution to the game with profitable strategies for both players.
Model optimizes trading strategy with unobservable toxicity.
problem Maximizing daily trading profit with unobservable toxicity.
method Formulated as a partially observable stochastic control problem, solved in two steps.
result P&L performance gap is negligible (0.01%) in all scenarios.
Adjoint Matching improves flow and diffusion models with reward fine-tuning.
problem Improving generative models with reward fine-tuning.
method Casting reward fine-tuning as stochastic optimal control (SOC) and enforcing a specific noise schedule.
result Adjoint Matching outperforms existing SOC algorithms.
Geometry arising from two diffusion operators (smooth semi-elliptic, second order differential operators) on different spaces but intertwined by a smooth map is described. Particular cases arise from Riemannian submersions when the operators are Laplace-Beltrami operators, from equivariant operators on the total space …
Paper explores how Rectified Flow adapts to low-dimensional data.
problem Improving sampling efficiency in low-dimensional data.
method Investigates Rectified Flow's adaptation to low-dimensional support and introduces a stochastic version.
result Shows improved sampling efficiency with O(k/ε) complexity. To execute a trade, participants in electronic equity markets may choose to submit limit orders or market orders across various exchanges where a stock is traded. This decision is influenced by the characteristics of the order flow and queue sizes in each limit order book, as well as the structure of transaction fees a…
sFML learns stochastic dynamical systems from data.
problem Learning unknown stochastic dynamical systems from measurement data.
method sFML extends FML for deterministic systems, using a stochastic flow map composed of deterministic and stochastic sub-maps.
result sFML constructs a stochastic evolution model approximating unknown stochastic systems.
Self-test loss functions improve data-driven modeling of weak-form operators and gradient flows.
problem Challenges in selecting test functions for data-driven modeling involving weak-form operators and gradient flows.
method Introducing self-test loss functions that depend on unknown parameters and are quadratic.
result Self-test loss functions conserve energy for gradient flows and coincide with log-likelihood ratios for stochastic differential equations.
The paper introduces new KMEs to capture stochastic process filtrations.
problem Missing filtration information in stochastic processes.
method Higher order kernel mean embeddings (KMEs) conditioned on filtrations.
result Consistent estimators and tests for filtration-sensitive information.
Modeling price impacts and trading signals for optimal execution and speculation.
problem Optimal execution and speculation in markets with trade signals.
method Price impact model driven by order flow, stochastic price impact, Meyer-σ-fields signal process, Marcus-type SDEs. result Derivation and numerical solution of HJB equation for optimal execution, enhanced speculative strategies.
Most modern financial markets use a continuous double auction mechanism to store and match orders and facilitate trading. In this paper we develop a microscopic dynamical statistical model for the continuous double auction under the assumption of IID random order flow, and analyze it using simulation, dimensional analy…
New formulation tackles arbitrage in volatile markets using eigenvalue bounds.
problem Arbitrage opportunities in volatile markets beyond a certain time horizon.
method Formulated as a stochastic optimal control problem, solved via PDE.
result Characterized arbitrage time horizon through PDE solution.
Two algorithms solve nonconvex minimax problems with linear constraints, achieving complexity guarantees.
problem Nonconvex minimax problems with coupled linear constraints.
method Zeroth-order primal-dual alternating projected gradient (ZO-PDAPG) and zeroth-order regularized momentum primal-dual projected gradient (ZO-RMPDPG) algorithms.
result Iteration complexity guarantees for solving nonconvex-(strongly) concave minimax problems with coupled linear constraints.
A simple strategy optimizes broker-client trading, reducing price discounts for informed traders.
problem Optimizing broker-client trading to balance client flow and informed trader losses.
method Modelled as a stochastic control problem, derived optimal strategy in closed form, introduced algorithm.
result Optimal strategy reduces price discounts for informed traders, balancing client flow and informed trader losses.
A new method splits diffusion operators on principal bundles, leading to disintegration theorems.
problem Diffusion operators on principal bundles with constant rank.
method Defining semi-connections and splitting diffusion operators into horizontal and vertical components.
result A disintegration theorem for the law of diffusion operators on principal bundles.
We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the intraday dynamics of the…
Study on stochastic mean curvature flow on networks using Ito calculus.
problem Understanding the dynamics of network structures under random influences.
method Application of Ito calculus to derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for network edges.
result New insights into the stability, long-term behavior, and pattern formation of complex networks under stochastic influences.
In this work we introduce two variants of multivariate Hawkes models with an explicit dependency on various queue sizes aimed at modeling the stochastic time evolution of a limit order book. The models we propose thus integrate the influence of both the current book state and the past order flow. The first variant cons…
Stochastic normalizing flows use SDEs for efficient training and sampling.
problem Efficient maximum likelihood estimation and variational inference.
method Continuous normalizing flows extended with stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and rough path theory.
result Stochastic normalizing flows enable efficient training and sampling from complex distributions.
Paper characterizes equilibrium strategies for stochastic control with higher-order moments.
problem Stochastic control problems with higher-order moments.
method Novel characterization of time-consistent control problems, deriving equilibrium conditions via BSDEs.
result Derives sufficient and necessary conditions for an open-loop Nash equilibrium control (ONEC) in a novel way.
Model strategic interactions between market makers and traders to optimize execution.
problem Optimizing execution in markets with strategic interactions.
method Stochastic game modeling with FBSDEs and decoupling approach.
result Established Nash equilibria and global well-posedness for specific models.
We investigate artificial neural networks as a parametrization tool for stochastic inputs in numerical simulations. We address parametrization from the point of view of emulating the data generating process, instead of explicitly constructing a parametric form to preserve predefined statistics of the data. This is done…
FlowHFT learns adaptive trading strategies from multiple models for diverse market conditions.
problem Traditional HFT models are limited by specific market conditions and cannot adapt to dynamic markets.
method FlowHFT uses flow matching policy to learn from multiple expert models and adapt to various market scenarios.
result FlowHFT consistently outperforms individual expert models in multiple market conditions.
We convert deterministic flow models to stochastic samplers.
problem Deterministic flow models are sensitive to errors and cannot condition on intermediate states.
method Transform ODEs into SDEs with the same marginal distributions.
result Empirically outperforms deterministic samplers and controls generation diversity.
Unified kernel framework extends to stochastic systems, improving numerical stability.
problem Extending kernel methods to stochastic dynamical systems with diffusion.
method Unified kernel framework, Feynman-Kac path-integral representations, collocation-based computational framework.
result Kernel equivalence under uniform ellipticity assumptions and improved numerical stability with moderate diffusion.
Study on test risk dynamics in learning theory with stochastic gradient flow.
problem Understanding test risk in stochastic gradient flow dynamics.
method Path integral formulation for small learning rates, explicit computation for weak features.
result Explicit corrections due to stochastic term in dynamics, good agreement with simulations.