Proposes new Monte Carlo methods for calibrating local volatility models with stochastic components.
problem Calibrating local volatility models with stochastic drift and diffusion.
method Developed Monte Carlo algorithms for three models: local volatility with stochastic interest rates, stochastic local volatility with deterministic interest rates, and stochastic local volatility with stochastic interest rates.
result Conditions for the existence of local volatility given European option prices, stochastic interest rate model parameters, and correlations.
The study analyzes stochastic Lie systems and their applications in various models.
problem Analyzing stochastic differential equations on manifolds.
method Coalgebra method for Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems.
result New examples of stochastic Lie systems and Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems are analyzed.
The paper models FX option skew using SLV models with stochastic correlation and jumps.
problem Stochastic skew of FX options.
method Created SLV models with stochastic correlation and jumps, using Levy processes for drivers and a new finite-difference scheme for calibration.
result Demonstrated capacity of the model in modeling stochastic skew.
This paper extends Heston's SV model to include stochastic interest rates.
problem Modeling options with stochastic interest rates.
method Developed a new SV model with stochastic interest rates and derived a semi-explicit formula.
result Derived a semi-explicit formula for option pricing with stochastic interest rates.
The article reviews how to set stochastic volatility model parameters.
problem Choosing parameters for stochastic volatility models.
method Examines existing literature on various methods.
result Different approaches to setting stochastic volatility parameters.
Paper corrects and expands stochastic Lie systems theory.
problem Stochastic Lie systems and their properties.
method Corrected stochastic Lie theorem, introduced new stochastic Lie systems.
result Stochastic Lie systems can differ significantly between Stratonovich and Itô approaches.
In this paper we investigate general linear stochastic volatility models with correlated Brownian noises. In such models the asset price satisfies a linear SDE with coefficient of linearity being the volatility process. This class contains among others Black-Scholes model, a log-normal stochastic volatility model and H…
Large deviation principles for multivariate stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding the behavior of log-processes in multivariate stochastic volatility models.
method Establishing a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle for log-processes.
result Asymptotic formulas for first exit times and barrier option prices derived from the LDP.
Entropy-minimal measure calculated for a stochastic volatility model.
problem Calculating the entropy-minimal equivalent martingale measure in a stochastic volatility model.
method Revised related theory, calculated entropy-minimal measure.
result Entropy-minimal measure for the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.
This paper compares two extensions of the Heston model for option pricing.
problem Improving the accuracy of option pricing models.
method Empirical analysis and non-linear least square optimization of parameters.
result The multiscale stochastic volatility model outperforms the Heston model.
Modeling stochastic arbitrage bubbles in Black-Scholes framework.
problem Analyzing arbitrage bubbles in financial markets.
method Developed a generalized Black-Scholes equation with stochastic arbitrage bubbles.
result The Black-Scholes model is a low-energy limit of a stochastic model.
Model for valuing options on epidemic spread.
problem Valuation of options on epidemic spread during an outbreak.
method Stochastic differential SIR model for epidemic dynamics.
result Parsimonious model for option valuation on epidemic spread.
Stochastic models analyze traffic network performance.
problem Evaluate traffic system performance.
method Stochastic cell transmission models, preference functionals, Gaussian process regression.
result Illustrated in two case studies.
Stochastic programs simplify complex models with noise and nondeterminism.
problem Handling models with nuisance parameters, noise, and nondeterminism.
method Developed a reference implementation for stochastic probabilistic programs and inference.
result Efficient inference in models with noise and nondeterminism is possible.
We introduce a stochastic model for noisy vector fields on manifolds.
problem Noisy vector fields violate the assumption of parallel transport in stochastic analysis.
method We define a stochastic Lie bracket that induces torsion and analyze its consequences.
result The stochastic Lie bracket induces torsion in expectation.
New algorithms for approximating stochastic processes efficiently.
problem Finding accurate finite approximations for stochastic processes.
method Develops new algorithms and fast implementations for approximating stochastic processes.
result Efficient approximations for stochastic processes can be found.
Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
problem Data-driven modeling of multistep stochastic dynamics.
method Adversarial learning with GANs and MMD for stable model classes.
result Stable generative models for long-time prediction and stochastic systems.
Corrects a mistake in a proof about large portfolios of stochastic volatility models.
problem Problems with a proof in a paper about large portfolios of stochastic volatility models.
method Reestablishes a weaker version of Theorem 3.1 and redevelops regularity theory.
result Most regularity results are replaced by slightly weaker ones.
Generative model improves noise estimation in stochastic rotating shallow water models.
problem Improving noise estimation in stochastic partial differential equations for fluid dynamics.
method Replaced PCA with a generative model to avoid constraints on stochastic increments.
result Generative model produces better RMSE, CRPS score, and forecast rank histograms.
New model captures time-varying volatility with stochastic exponential tails.
problem Capturing time-varying volatility and stochastic skewness in financial markets.
method Normal Tempered Stable distribution with time-varying parameter.
result Model better explains market option prices with stochastic exponential tails.
Calibrates hybrid LSV models with stochastic rates using particle method and control variates.
problem Calibrating complex foreign exchange models with stochastic volatility and stochastic rates.
method Combines particle method with variance reduction techniques and control variates.
result Accelerates convergence in calibration process for a wide class of hybrid LSV models.
Proposes a new method combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow for predicting stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Predicting and capturing long-term behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems.
method Data-driven framework combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow, integrating error modeling and both approaches virtues.
result Successfully predicts the long-term evolution of stochastic dynamical systems and replicates dynamical behaviors.
Study approximates rough stochastic volatility models using diffusion processes.
problem High computational cost in simulating rough stochastic volatility models.
method Approximates stochastic Volterra equations with an N-dimensional diffusion process.
result Approximations converge strongly with superpolynomial rate in N.
Optimizes control of infectious disease spread using stochastic methods.
problem Optimizing control of highly infectious diseases like COVID-19.
method Reformulated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation as stochastic minimum principle, leading to forward-backward stochastic differential equations.
result Numerous numerical solutions presented under various scenarios.
Proposes uncertain volatility models with fluctuating stochastic bounds for improved accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in modeling volatility with fluctuating bounds.
method Introduces stochastic bounds that fluctuate according to a stochastic volatility process, applying perturbation analysis to reduce complexity.
result The method provides a significant computational advantage and performs well even with moderately slow varying bounds.
PASTIS selects minimal models from stochastic dynamics data.
problem Overfitting in model selection for stochastic dynamics.
method Combining likelihood-estimation statistics with extreme value theory.
result PASTIS reliably identifies minimal models, even with low sampling rates or error.
sFML learns stochastic dynamical systems from data.
problem Learning unknown stochastic dynamical systems from measurement data.
method sFML extends FML for deterministic systems, using a stochastic flow map composed of deterministic and stochastic sub-maps.
result sFML constructs a stochastic evolution model approximating unknown stochastic systems.
Stochastic WaveNet models sequential data with latent variables and dilated convolutions.
problem Modeling distribution of sequential data like speech and motions.
method Combines stochastic latent variables and dilated convolutions in WaveNet architecture.
result Obtains state-of-the-art performances on speech and handwriting datasets.
Paper improves stochastic collocation for local volatility models.
problem Improving local volatility models for assets with boundaries.
method Applied stochastic collocation to lognormal distributions, derived analytical local volatility.
result Simple analytical Dupire local volatility derived from option prices.
Study on Kyle's model with stochastic liquidity impacts asset volatility.
problem Impact of stochastic volatility of noise trading on asset volatility.
method Construct equilibrium for continuous-time Kyle's model with stochastic liquidity.
result In equilibrium, Kyle's Lambda and its inverse are submartingales.
Stochastic neural networks with infinite width become deterministic, reducing training variance.
problem Understanding how stochasticity in neural networks affects learning and regularization.
method Theoretical analysis of stochastic neural networks with infinite width.
result As the width of an optimized stochastic neural network increases, its predictive variance on the training set decreases to zero.
This study models credit default swap premiums with a stochastic recovery rate.
problem Analyzing credit default swap premiums with varying recovery rates.
method Develops a model using stochastic recovery rates.
result Models credit default swap premiums effectively with a stochastic recovery rate.
Develops a framework for modeling interest rate markets with jumps.
problem Stochastic discontinuities in interest rate markets.
method Extended HJM framework with stochastic discontinuities, affine semimartingales.
result Fundamental theorem of asset pricing based on NAFLVR.
Improved noise estimation in latent neural SDEs enhances model accuracy.
problem Latent neural SDEs underestimate noise, limiting their stochastic dynamics modeling.
method Explicit additional noise regularization in the loss function.
result Model accurately captures diffusion component of stochastic time series data.
The paper provides a formula for pricing volatility swaps with stochastic volatility, jumps, and stochastic intensity.
problem Valuation of volatility swaps in markets with stochastic volatility, jumps, and stochastic intensity.
method The paper uses the stochastic volatility model with jumps and stochastic intensity, and the Feynman-Kac theorem to derive a partial integral differential equation. Discrete and continuous sampled volatility swap pricing formulas are obtained using transform techniques.
result The paper delivers a pricing formula for volatility swaps under stochastic volatility with jumps and stochastic intensity.
STCN combines TCNs with stochastic latent variables for sequence modeling.
problem Performance gap between TCNs and stochastic RNNs, especially with multiple layers of random variables.
method Proposes a hierarchy of stochastic latent variables in a modular architecture.
result Achieves state-of-the-art log-likelihoods across various tasks.
Research forecasts electricity spot prices using stochastic volatility models.
problem Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in a spot market.
method Exploring and enriching a baseline stochastic volatility model with exogenous regressors.
result A better fitting model confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts.
Paper simplifies stock market theory without randomness.
problem Applying stochastic portfolio theory to non-stochastic markets.
method Develops non-stochastic versions of stochastic portfolio theory results.
result Establishes non-stochastic versions of basic stochastic portfolio theory results.
In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps based on a hybrid model of stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate with regime-switching. Our modelling framework extends the Heston stochastic volatility model by including the CIR stochastic interest rate and model paramete…
Scalable Gaussian process models trained with unbiased stochastic ELBO.
problem Training large capacity Gaussian process models on huge datasets.
method Unbiased stochastic variational inference for scalable GPs.
result Accurate inference on large datasets with up to 10 million basis functions.
VSDN models sporadic time series with neural SDEs.
problem Modeling irregular and sparse time series data.
method Variational Bayesian method and neural SDEs.
result VSDNs outperform state-of-the-art models in prediction and interpolation.
New method scales Bayesian inference for nonlinear SSMs using buffered stochastic gradient.
problem Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is computationally challenging and particle degeneracy increases with longer series.
method Extends stochastic gradient MCMC to nonlinear SSMs using particle methods and error bounds.
result Demonstrates the importance of particle buffered stochastic gradient for long sequential data.
SON learns SPDE solutions and uncertainty from noisy data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in SPDEs with unknown model uncertainties.
method Combining DeepONet and SNNs, SON models stochasticity and predicts uncertainty.
result SON accurately captures solution structure and quantifies predictive uncertainty.
Derives new equations for stochastic volatility models.
problem Modeling local-stochastic-volatility models and their derivatives.
method Conditional forward equation, Dupire stochastic PDE, rolling expiry vanilla option SPDE.
result New equations for LSV models and their derivatives.
Derives new equations for volatility models and option pricing.
problem Modeling and pricing options in local-stochastic-volatility models.
method Develops conditional forward equations and Dupire stochastic PDEs.
result Derives new SPDE for vanilla options.
Regularized SB process speeds up generative modeling.
problem Slow sampling and training times in SB-based models.
method Regularization terms to reduce timesteps and training time.
result Faster sampling speed for generative modeling.
We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financia…
Better models make stochastic optimization more stable and robust.
problem Stability and robustness issues in standard stochastic optimization methods.
method Investigation of the aProx family of models for stochastic minimization and learning problems.
result Stochastic methods can be made stable, provably convergent, and asymptotically optimal with accurate models.