A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Novel Fourier-based estimator reveals stochastic leverage effect in high-frequency data.
We prove that a wide class of correlated stochastic volatility models exactly measure an empirical fact in which past returns are anticorrelated with future volatilities: the so-called ``leverage effect''. This quantitative measure allows us to fully estimate all parameters involved and it will entail a deeper study on…
We model leverage as stochastic but independent of return shocks and of volatility and perform likelihood-based inference via the recently developed iterated filtering algorithm using S&P500 data, contributing new evidence to the still slim empirical support for random leverage variation.
The leverage effect-- the correlation between an asset's return and its volatility-- has played a key role in forecasting and understanding volatility and risk. While it is a long standing consensus that leverage effects exist and improve forecasts, empirical evidence paradoxically do not show that most individual stoc…
Modeling price formation with interacting Hawkes processes leading to stochastic volatility with leverage.
We show that typical behaviors of market participants at the high frequency scale generate leverage effect and rough volatility. To do so, we build a simple microscopic model for the price of an asset based on Hawkes processes. We encode in this model some of the main features of market microstructure in the context of…
We compare the most common SV models such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), the Heston and the exponential OU (expOU) models. We try to decide which is the most appropriate one by studying their volatility autocorrelation and leverage effect, and thus outline the limitations of each model. We add empirical research on ma…
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage a…
Deep learning solves complex stochastic control with jumps.
We study the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model and observe that the model shows a multiscale behavior in the volatility autocorrelation. It also exhibits a leverage correlation and a probability profile for the stationary volatility which are consistent with market observations. All these featu…
The SV-GARCH-EVT model improves risk assessment in financial markets.
This paper studies the long-term growth rate of expected utility from holding a leveraged exchanged-traded fund (LETF), which is a constant proportion portfolio of the reference asset. Working with the power utility function, we develop an analytical approach that employs martingale extraction and involves finding the …
The sampling efficiency of MCMC methods in Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to highly depend on the actual parameter values, and the effectiveness of samplers based on different parameterizations varies significantly. We derive novel algorithms for the centered and the non-centered para…
This paper examines Bitcoin's unique market properties and the leverage effect.
This paper improves offline contextual bandits using distributional robustness.
We consider parallel asynchronous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for problems where we can leverage (stochastic) gradients to define continuous dynamics which explore the target distribution. We outline a solution strategy for this setting based on stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling (SGHMC) …
Formula for option pricing in a stochastic volatility model with jumps.
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogat…
ProGen improves spatiotemporal forecasting with SDEs and diffusion models.
Derives new equations for stochastic volatility models.
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting. Three examples of random time-changes are provided and the implied volatility sur…
We derive optimal statistical and computational complexity bounds for exp-concave stochastic minimization in terms of the effective dimension. For common eigendecay patterns of the population covariance matrix, this quantity is significantly smaller than the ambient dimension. Our results reveal interesting connections…
New method estimates SDE parameters efficiently using WCE and SGD.
Study reveals different drivers of electricity price volatility across Europe.
Derives token price process for AMM tokens, finds leverage effect and pricing discrepancies.
The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between the return of an asset and the changes in its volatility. There is broad agreement in the literature that the effect should be present for theoretical reasons, and it has been consistently found in empirical work. However, a few papers have pointe…
Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.
Paper proposes efficient offline neural bandit method.
The leverage effect refers to the well-established relationship between returns and volatility. When returns fall, volatility increases. We examine the role of the leverage effect with regards to generating density forecasts of equity returns using well-known observation and parameter-driven volatility models. These mo…
FDBM models use fractional Brownian motion to model complex stochastic processes.
While machine learning has achieved remarkable results in a wide variety of domains, the training of models often requires large datasets that may need to be collected from different individuals. As sensitive information may be contained in the individual's dataset, sharing training data may lead to severe privacy conc…
Bollerslev et al. (2006) study the cross-covariances for squared returns under the Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model. In order to obtain these cross-covariances the authors use an incorrect expression for the distribution of the squared returns. Here we will obtain the correct distribution of the squared return…
Study shows TAR model captures leverage effect in financial series.
New algorithm guarantees performance on noisy data.
New method learns latent energy models using particle algorithms.
Peters (2011a) defined an optimal leverage which maximizes the time-average growth rate of an investment held at constant leverage. It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment in the market portfolio cannot yield long-term outperformance. This places a str…
New algorithm approximates continuous Wasserstein barycenters efficiently.
Vanilla SGD learns SIM from anisotropic data without explicit covariance estimation.
In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset return dynamics in which frequencies of the up and down movements of asset price hav…
FOCUS method forecasts counterfactuals in panel data with time series dynamics.
A semi-supervised framework using stochastic interpolation and latent representations.
Based on a criterion of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity generators of log-price and volatility are independent or are the same, two versions …
This paper analyzes the robust growth rate of leveraged ETFs under uncertain parameters.
An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the stochasticity of different time series can be compared. The local volatility of the time s…
New analysis reveals batch size effects on stochastic conditional gradient methods.
Study examines asymmetry impacts on Japanese stock market volatility modeling and forecasting.
Paper examines constant stepsize in LSA for Markovian data inference.
The autocorrelation function of volatility in financial time series is fitted well by a superposition of several exponents. Such a case admits an explicit analytical solution of the problem of constructing the best linear forecast of a stationary stochastic process. We describe and apply the proposed analytical method …