Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
problem Data-driven modeling of multistep stochastic dynamics.
method Adversarial learning with GANs and MMD for stable model classes.
result Stable generative models for long-time prediction and stochastic systems.
Generative model improves noise estimation in stochastic rotating shallow water models.
problem Improving noise estimation in stochastic partial differential equations for fluid dynamics.
method Replaced PCA with a generative model to avoid constraints on stochastic increments.
result Generative model produces better RMSE, CRPS score, and forecast rank histograms.
Modeling stochastic arbitrage bubbles in Black-Scholes framework.
problem Analyzing arbitrage bubbles in financial markets.
method Developed a generalized Black-Scholes equation with stochastic arbitrage bubbles.
result The Black-Scholes model is a low-energy limit of a stochastic model.
A new deep generative model uses BSDEs for high-dimensional data generation.
problem Generating high-dimensional complex data, especially images.
method Combines BSDEs with deep neural networks for training with MMD loss.
result BSDE-Gen effectively generates high-dimensional data with stochasticity.
Regularized SB process speeds up generative modeling.
problem Slow sampling and training times in SB-based models.
method Regularization terms to reduce timesteps and training time.
result Faster sampling speed for generative modeling.
The article reviews how to set stochastic volatility model parameters.
problem Choosing parameters for stochastic volatility models.
method Examines existing literature on various methods.
result Different approaches to setting stochastic volatility parameters.
GenFormer uses deep learning to generate complex stochastic data.
problem Creating synthetic stochastic data that matches real-world statistical properties.
method Transformer-based deep learning model that maps Markov state sequences to time series values.
result GenFormer preserves target marginal distributions and other statistical properties in multivariate spatio-temporal data.
We convert deterministic flow models to stochastic samplers.
problem Deterministic flow models are sensitive to errors and cannot condition on intermediate states.
method Transform ODEs into SDEs with the same marginal distributions.
result Empirically outperforms deterministic samplers and controls generation diversity.
sFML learns stochastic dynamical systems from data.
problem Learning unknown stochastic dynamical systems from measurement data.
method sFML extends FML for deterministic systems, using a stochastic flow map composed of deterministic and stochastic sub-maps.
result sFML constructs a stochastic evolution model approximating unknown stochastic systems.
MF-GLaM models improve stochastic simulator emulation with multifidelity data.
problem Challenging to emulate stochastic simulators' full conditional probability distribution.
method Proposes MF-GLaMs to efficiently emulate HF stochastic simulators using LF data.
result MF-GLaMs achieve improved accuracy or comparable performance at reduced cost.
Paper corrects and expands stochastic Lie systems theory.
problem Stochastic Lie systems and their properties.
method Corrected stochastic Lie theorem, introduced new stochastic Lie systems.
result Stochastic Lie systems can differ significantly between Stratonovich and Itô approaches.
Stochastic models analyze traffic network performance.
problem Evaluate traffic system performance.
method Stochastic cell transmission models, preference functionals, Gaussian process regression.
result Illustrated in two case studies.
New algorithms for approximating stochastic processes efficiently.
problem Finding accurate finite approximations for stochastic processes.
method Develops new algorithms and fast implementations for approximating stochastic processes.
result Efficient approximations for stochastic processes can be found.
New model solves complex SDEs with high-dimensional spatial and stochastic spaces.
problem Solving SDEs with high-dimensional spatial and stochastic spaces.
method Physics-informed deep generative model (sPI-GeM) combining PI-BasisNet and PI-GeM.
result Scalable solution for high-dimensional SDE problems.
Unified treatment of RC in stochastic and deterministic settings.
problem Understanding and generalizing reservoir computing in both deterministic and stochastic contexts.
method Investigation of state-space systems, analysis of fading memory and solution stability, introduction of stochastic echo states.
result Generality of fading memory and solution stability in state-space systems, even without the echo state property.
In this paper we investigate general linear stochastic volatility models with correlated Brownian noises. In such models the asset price satisfies a linear SDE with coefficient of linearity being the volatility process. This class contains among others Black-Scholes model, a log-normal stochastic volatility model and H…
How to model distribution of sequential data, including but not limited to speech and human motions, is an important ongoing research problem. It has been demonstrated that model capacity can be significantly enhanced by introducing stochastic latent variables in the hidden states of recurrent neural networks. Simultan…
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in correspondence to monetary policy meetings of the ECB show. We provide a general analysis of …
We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as…
Neural SVEs model complex systems with memory, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Modeling systems with memory effects and irregular behavior.
method Introducing neural stochastic Volterra equations as a physics-inspired architecture.
result Neural SVEs outperform neural SDEs and DeepONets in various applications.
The paper analyzes stability and generalization of decentralized SGD.
problem Stability and generalization of decentralized stochastic gradient descent.
method Novel formulation of decentralized stochastic gradient descent combined with non/convex optimization theory.
result First stability and generalization guarantees for decentralized stochastic gradient descent.
We present new stochastic differential equations, that are more general and simpler than the existing Ito-based stochastic differential equations. As an example, we apply our approach to the investment (portfolio) model.
We extend Dupire's formula for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
problem Deriving formulas for stochastic interest rates and local volatility.
method Generalizations of Dupire's formula for stochastic drift and local volatility.
result Validated the limits of the generalized Dupire formulae for specific cases.
GANs improve stochastic dynamics prediction by selecting randomly between models.
problem Accurately generating stochastic dynamics from multi-model GANs.
method Applying GANs to a lattice stochastic process, adding noise, and selecting randomly between models.
result Multi-model approach leads to significant improvement in accuracy of stochastic dynamics prediction.
Study on test risk dynamics in learning theory with stochastic gradient flow.
problem Understanding test risk in stochastic gradient flow dynamics.
method Path integral formulation for small learning rates, explicit computation for weak features.
result Explicit corrections due to stochastic term in dynamics, good agreement with simulations.
In 'A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options', Heston proposes a Stochastic Volatility (SV) model with constant interest rate and derives a semi-explicit valuation formula. Heston also describes, in general terms, how the model could be extended to inc…
Storchastic improves stochastic AD for complex models in RL and VI.
problem Handling intractable expectations in RL and VI.
method Introduces Storchastic, a framework for AD of stochastic computation graphs with various gradient estimation methods.
result Provable unbiasedness and variance reduction for higher-order gradients.
Develops a novel framework for pricing variance swaps in multi-asset stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing variance swaps in multi-asset stochastic volatility models.
method Determinant-based instantaneous generalized variance, Heston and BNS stochastic volatility frameworks.
result Analytical pricing expressions for multi-asset Heston and BNS formulations.
We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied volatility expansions are explicit; they do not require any special functions nor do…
New model captures time-varying volatility with stochastic exponential tails.
problem Capturing time-varying volatility and stochastic skewness in financial markets.
method Normal Tempered Stable distribution with time-varying parameter.
result Model better explains market option prices with stochastic exponential tails.
We propose a simple stochastic model of market behavior. Dividing market participants into two groups: trend-followers and fundamentalists, we derive the general form of a stochastic equation of market dynamics. The model has two characteristic time scales: the time of changes of market environment and the characterist…
New method solves complex optimization problems with real-time learning.
problem Nonconvex nonsmooth conditional stochastic optimization problems.
method Single time-scale stochastic method with parametric model approximation.
result Method converges with probability one using differential inclusions and Lyapunov function.
The existence of stationary Markov perfect equilibria in stochastic games is shown under a general condition called "(decomposable) coarser transition kernels". This result covers various earlier existence results on correlated equilibria, noisy stochastic games, stochastic games with finite actions and state-independe…
Study on Kyle's model with stochastic liquidity impacts asset volatility.
problem Impact of stochastic volatility of noise trading on asset volatility.
method Construct equilibrium for continuous-time Kyle's model with stochastic liquidity.
result In equilibrium, Kyle's Lambda and its inverse are submartingales.
Improved noise estimation in latent neural SDEs enhances model accuracy.
problem Latent neural SDEs underestimate noise, limiting their stochastic dynamics modeling.
method Explicit additional noise regularization in the loss function.
result Model accurately captures diffusion component of stochastic time series data.
Paper tackles robust model training with a new stochastic algorithm.
problem Training robust models against data distribution shift.
method Derives a novel dual formulation and proposes a nested stochastic gradient descent algorithm.
result Establishes polynomial iteration and sample complexities for large-scale DRO problems.
We generalize the stochastic block model to the important case in which edges are annotated with weights drawn from an exponential family distribution. This generalization introduces several technical difficulties for model estimation, which we solve using a Bayesian approach. We introduce a variational algorithm that …
SGD reduces test error by decorrelating updates.
problem Improving generalization error in machine learning models.
method Derive a formula for generalization gap change due to SGD updates, compare to GD, and show decorrelation effect.
result SGD implicitly regularizes generalization error by decorrelating updates.
A new method for high-dimensional RBDO using stochastic emulators.
problem Efficient RBDO in high-dimensional settings.
method Unified stochastic representation, stochastic emulators, deterministic mapping.
result Significant computational gains in high-dimensional settings.
Constructs stochastic processes on sub-Riemannian manifolds using Cartan connections.
problem Developing stochastic processes on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Introduces stochastic development using Cartan connections, derives generator, and provides conditions for existence.
result Derives a general expression for the generator of the stochastic process and provides conditions for the existence of a Cartan connection.
In this paper we are interested in term structure models for pricing zero coupon bonds under rapidly oscillating stochastic volatility. We analyze solutions to the generalized Cox-Ingersoll-Ross two factors model describing clustering of interest rate volatilities. The main goal is to derive an asymptotic expansion of …
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time series analysis and prediction in finance. The model comprises a pair of complement…
We develop the method of stochastic modified equations (SME), in which stochastic gradient algorithms are approximated in the weak sense by continuous-time stochastic differential equations. We exploit the continuous formulation together with optimal control theory to derive novel adaptive hyper-parameter adjustment po…
Method learns dynamics of slow variables from stochastic data.
problem Modeling unknown multiscale stochastic systems with limited data.
method Data-driven approach to learn effective dynamics from bursts of observation data.
result Generative model accurately captures effective dynamics of slow variables.
SymDiff uses stochastic symmetrisation for equivariant diffusion models.
problem Constructing equivariant diffusion models for data augmentation.
method Stochastic symmetrisation for lightweight, efficient, and easy-to-implement equivariance.
result SymDiff achieves significant empirical benefit for E(3)-equivariant molecular generation. This work introduces a new model for complex stochastic processes.
problem Difficulties in representing non-stationary distributions with conventional models.
method Recurrent Autoregressive Flows using normalizing flows with recurrent neural connections.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model through experiments.
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical D…
New model estimates higher-order interactions in stochastic processes using lower-dimensional projections.
problem Estimating higher-order interaction effects in stochastic processes with limited data.
method Additive Poisson Process (APP) combines information geometry and generalized additive models to model intensity functions in lower dimensions.
result The model can estimate higher-order intensity functions with sparse data.