A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops robust methods for infinite-dimensional stochastic processes.
We provide sufficient conditions on the coefficients of a stochastic evolution equation on a Hilbert space of functions driven by a cylindrical Wiener process ensuring that its mild solution is positive if the initial datum is positive. As an application, we discuss the positivity of forward rates in the Heath-Jarrow-M…
In the article "Stochastic evolution equations for large portfolios of Stochastic Volatility models" (Arxiv:1701.05640) there is a mistake in the proof of Theorem 3.1. In this erratum we establish a weaker version of this Theorem and then we redevelop the regularity theory for our problem accordingly. This means that m…
We present a framework for describing the evolution of stochastic observables having a non-stationary distribution of values. The framework is applied to empirical volume-prices from assets traded at the New York stock exchange. Using Kullback-Leibler divergence we evaluate the best model out from four biparametric mod…
Using available data from the New York stock market (NYSM) we test four different bi-parametric models to fit the correspondent volume-price distributions at each -minute lag: the Gamma distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, the Weibull distribution and the log-normal distribution. The volume-price data, whi…
Quantum methods model uncertain volatility in financial markets.
We prove a maximum principle for mild solutions to stochastic evolution equations with (locally) Lipschitz coefficients and Wiener noise on weighted spaces. As an application, we provide sufficient conditions for the positivity of forward rates in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model, considering the associated Musiela …
New method estimates Schrödinger bridges using ML techniques.
We model how Lipschitz continuity changes during neural network training.
We present several models to describe the stochastic evolution of stocks that show some strong resistance at some level and generalize to this situation the evolution based upon geometric Brownian motion. If volatility and drift are related in a certain way we show that our model can be integrated in an exact way. The …
The minimization of the loss function is of paramount importance in deep neural networks. On the other hand, many popular optimization algorithms have been shown to correspond to some evolution equation of gradient flow type. Inspired by the numerical schemes used for general evolution equations we introduce a second o…
Entropy-minimal measure calculated for a stochastic volatility model.
Algorithm learns which weights to share in deep multi-task learning.
The paper studies how noise synchronizes tokens in deep transformer models.
The paper calculates how random changes affect paths on a complex geometric space.
This tutorial introduces the CMA Evolution Strategy (ES), where CMA stands for Covariance Matrix Adaptation. The CMA-ES is a stochastic, or randomized, method for real-parameter (continuous domain) optimization of non-linear, non-convex functions. We try to motivate and derive the algorithm from intuitive concepts and …
We perform a classification of the Lie point symmetries for the Black--Scholes--Merton Model for European options with stochastic volatility, , in which the last is defined by a stochastic differential equation with an Orstein--Uhlenbeck term. In this model, the value of the option is given by a linear (1 + 2) evolu…
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make optimal sale decisions given these changing market conditions. Using these opti…
The paper proposes a method to learn evolving multivariate distributions from sample paths.
We exploit the symmetry concepts developed in the companion review of this article to introduce a stochastic version of link reversal symmetry, which leads to an improved understanding of the reciprocity of directed networks. We apply our formalism to the international trade network and show that a strong embedding in …
In this paper we study the stochastic evolution equation (1.1) in martingale-type 2 Banach spaces (with the linear part of the drift being only a generator of a C0-semigroup). We prove the existence and the uniqueness of solutions to this equation. We apply the abstract results to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton-Musiela (HJMM)…
SGRNN models evolving graph data for better property prediction.
Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is transmitted to children. Here we propose a model where we simulate both the dynamics of…
Develops a new method for financial term structure modeling.
Study on stochastic mean curvature flow on networks using Ito calculus.
Optimizes control of infectious disease spread using stochastic methods.
The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Usi…
We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure, decorrelation of moves in different points on the forward curve, and implied volatil…
We consider a structural credit model for a large portfolio of credit risky assets where the correlation is due to a market factor. By considering the large portfolio limit of this system we show the existence of a density process for the asset values. This density evolves according to a stochastic partial differential…
Study on wealth and trading in PoS blockchain.
Neural SVEs model complex systems with memory, outperforming traditional methods.
This paper proposes a governing equation for stock market indexes that accounts for non-stationary effects. This is a linear Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) that describes the time evolution of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the price return. By applying Ito's lemma, this FPE is associated with a stochasti…
Modeling the evolution of a financial index as a stochastic process is a problem awaiting a full, satisfactory solution since it was first formulated by Bachelier in 1900. Here it is shown that the scaling with time of the return probability density function sampled from the historical series suggests a successful mode…
The generalized 5D Black-Scholes differential equation with stochastic volatility is derived. The projections of the stochastic evolutions associated with the random variables from an enlarged space or superspace onto an ordinary space can be achieved via higher-dimensional operators. The stochastic nature of the secur…
Mathematical methods of population genetics and framework of exchangeability provide a Markov chain model for analysis and interpretation of stochastic behaviour of equity markets, explaining, in particular, market shape formation, statistical equilibrium and temporal stability of market weights.
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX rates can be performed effciently through the FFT methodology thanks to the affinit…
We present a novel variation of online kernel machines in which we exploit a consensus based optimization mechanism to guide the evolution of decision functions drawn from a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, which efficiently models the observed stationary process.
We consider learning two layer neural networks using stochastic gradient descent. The mean-field description of this learning dynamics approximates the evolution of the network weights by an evolution in the space of probability distributions in (where is the number of parameters associated to each neuron). T…
Developed LQ MFG theory with common noise, proving existence and uniqueness.
The Mixed-Membership Stochastic Blockmodel~(MMSB) is proposed as one of the state-of-the-art Bayesian relational methods suitable for learning the complex hidden structure underlying the network data. However, the current formulation of MMSB suffers from the following two issues: (1), the prior information~(e.g. entiti…
Clarifies when solutions to stochastic PDEs stay near given subsets.
Study dynamics of alternating minimization for bilinear regression under large system limits.
Since Bachelier's thesis in 1900 (laying the foundation of the stochastic process, or Brownian motion, as a model of stock price changes), attempts at understanding the nature of prices and at predicting them have failed. Statistical methods have only found minor regularities/anomalies, and other mathematical and physi…
We propose a population-based Evolutionary Stochastic Gradient Descent (ESGD) framework for optimizing deep neural networks. ESGD combines SGD and gradient-free evolutionary algorithms as complementary algorithms in one framework in which the optimization alternates between the SGD step and evolution step to improve th…
Study asset price bubbles using random matching and stochastic factors.
Derives effective continuous dynamics for adaptive SGD methods.
In setting up a stochastic description of the time evolution of a financial index, the challenge consists in devising a model compatible with all stylized facts emerging from the analysis of financial time series and providing a reliable basis for simulating such series. Based on constraints imposed by market efficienc…
We recently showed that the S&P500 stock market index is well described by Tsallis non-extensive statistics and nonlinear Fokker-Planck time evolution. We argued that these results should be applicable to a broad range of markets and exchanges where anomalous diffusion and `heavy' tails of the distribution are present.…