A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New algorithms optimize spectral risk measures, improving interpolation between average and worst-case performance.
problem Optimizing spectral risk measures for learning systems.
method Developed stochastic algorithms to optimize spectral risk measures by characterizing their subdifferential and addressing challenges like biasedness of subgradient estimates and non-smoothness.
result Our approach outperforms out-of-the-box stochastic subgradient and dual averaging methods in optimizing spectral risk measures.
In risk management it is desirable to grasp the essential statistical features of a time series representing a risk factor. This tutorial aims to introduce a number of different stochastic processes that can help in grasping the essential features of risk factors describing different asset classes or behaviors. This pa…
We study a risk-constrained version of the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, where the risk measure considered is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We propose two algorithms that obtain a locally risk-optimal policy by employing four tools: stochastic approximation, mini batches, policy gradients and importance s…
We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set of training samples observed so far. For non-i.i.d. data, the training set contai…
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of different risk categories and between severities of different risk categories as well …
When simulating a complex stochastic system, the behavior of output response depends on input parameters estimated from finite real-world data, and the finiteness of data brings input uncertainty into the system. The quantification of the impact of input uncertainty on output response has been extensively studied. Most…
Hedging methods to mitigate the exposure of variable annuity products to market risks require the calculation of market risk sensitivities (or "Greeks"). The complex, path-dependent nature of these products means these sensitivities typically must be estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard market practice is to m…
A framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in reinforcement learning.
problem Estimating risk and uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning.
method Proposed a framework for disentangling and estimating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties on learned Q-values, derived unbiased estimators, and introduced an uncertainty-aware DQN algorithm.
result The uncertainty-aware DQN algorithm exhibits safe learning behavior and outperforms other DQN variants on the MinAtar testbed.
The paper connects higher order risk measures and stochastic dominance, showing their equivalence and integrating them with optimization.
problem Comparing and characterizing random outcomes in risk assessment.
method Exploring the equivalence between higher order risk measures and stochastic dominance, using stochastic optimization and expectiles as examples.
result Higher order risk measures and stochastic dominance are equivalent and can be used to characterize random outcomes.
New methods show sparse portfolios offer no advantage over mean-variance in diversification.
problem Investment diversification and risk management with sparse portfolios.
method Developed and implemented a new estimation procedure for sparse second-order stochastic spanning using a greedy algorithm and Linear Programming.
result No benefit from expanding a sparse opportunity set beyond 45 assets; optimal sparse portfolio reduces tail risk.
We prove that a wide class of correlated stochastic volatility models exactly measure an empirical fact in which past returns are anticorrelated with future volatilities: the so-called ``leverage effect''. This quantitative measure allows us to fully estimate all parameters involved and it will entail a deeper study on…