A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
This paper develops a stochastic learning-optimization model for resilient automotive supply chains.
Solves inventory control with unknown demand trend using singular control.
Extends return extrapolation to nonlinear, asymmetric functions under stochastic volatility.
The relationship between price volatilty and a market extremum is examined using a fundamental economics model of supply and demand. By examining randomness through a microeconomic setting, we obtain the implications of randomness in the supply and demand, rather than assuming that price has randomness on an empirical …
This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the …
New approach uses deep generative models for inventory and pricing decisions.
Optimistic pricing algorithm handles online dynamic pricing with censored demand.
Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series of demand, supply and the price itself. However, there are many historic events …
New models optimize quotes for automated market makers considering various price dynamics and demand variability.
We consider a version of the stochastic inventory control problem for a spectrally positive Lévy demand process, in which the inventory can only be replenished at independent exponential times. We show the optimality of a periodic barrier replenishment policy that restocks any shortage below a certain threshold at each…
We extend return extrapolation to incorporate asymmetry and saturation, finding that asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation leads to lower welfare loss.
We consider a stochastic inventory control problem under censored demands, lost sales, and positive lead times. This is a fundamental problem in inventory management, with significant literature establishing near-optimality of a simple class of policies called ``base-stock policies'' for the underlying Markov Decision …
The paper calculates how fast optimal investment strategies approach CRRA strategies in stochastic factor models.
New algorithm reduces pricing error by a factor of T^2/3.
Optimal online learning for joint pricing and resource allocation.
Building on a prominent agent-based model, we present a new structural stochastic volatility asset pricing model of fundamentalists vs. chartists where the prices are determined based on excess demand. Specifically, this allows for modelling stochastic interactions between agents, based on a herding process corrected b…
Study optimizes pricing under uncertainty and capacity constraints.
In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at a random time by maximizing total expected profits. We model the firm's optimal …
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
Learning customer preferences from an observed behaviour is an important topic in the marketing literature. Structural models typically model forward-looking customers or firms as utility-maximizing agents whose utility is estimated using methods of Stochastic Optimal Control. We suggest an alternative approach to stud…
Paper tackles learning win-win solutions in aggregation systems.
Optimal market making strategy with price forecasts reduces inventory costs and spreads.
Motivated by posted price auctions where buyers are grouped in an unknown number of latent types characterized by their private values for the good on sale, we investigate revenue maximization in stochastic dynamic pricing when the distribution of buyers' private values is supported on an unknown set of points in [0,1]…
ODC protocol improves learning in asynchronous multi-agent bandits.
The hierarchical structure of production planning has the advantage of assigning different decision variables to their respective time horizons and therefore ensures their manageability. However, the restrictive structure of this top-down approach implying that upper level decisions are the constraints for lower level …
Model analyzes trading frictions in cap-and-trade markets, showing how they interact to affect market effectiveness.
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
We consider a dynamic market model of liquidity where unmatched buy and sell limit orders are stored in order books. The resulting net demand surface constitutes the sole input to the model. We prove that generically there is no arbitrage in the model when the driving noise is a stochastic string. Under the equivalent …
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make optimal sale decisions given these changing market conditions. Using these opti…
We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a singl…
We study the stochastic control problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth under a non-bankruptcy constraint. The wealth process is subject to shocks produced by a general marked point process. The problem of the agent is to derive the optimal insurance strategy which allows "lowering" the level of the…
We study continuous time Bertrand oligopolies in which a small number of firms producing similar goods compete with one another by setting prices. We first analyze a static version of this game in order to better understand the strategies played in the dynamic setting. Within the static game, we characterize the Nash e…
We study a stochastic equation modeling the lay-down of fibers in the production process of nonwovens. The equation can be formulated as some manifold-valued Stratonovich stochastic differential equation. Especially, we study the long time behaviour of the stochastic process. Demanding mathematical difficulties arising…
Demand variance can result in a mismatch between planned supply and actual demand. Demand shaping strategies such as pricing can be used to shift elastic demand to reduce the imbalance. In this work, we propose to consider elastic demand in the forecasting phase. We present a method to reallocate the historical elastic…
The paper proposes a new model to better estimate demand from censored data.
Financial frequency combs emerge from macroeconomic long-range memory.
A new optimization method improves deep learning accuracy without hyper-parameter tuning.
Paper develops methods for solving complex stochastic equations using Malliavin calculus.
Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a biased, or censored, version of the true underlying demand pattern. Without explicitly…
In a market with stochastic investment opportunities, we study an optimal consumption investment problem for an agent with recursive utility of Epstein-Zin type. Focusing on the empirically relevant specification where both risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution are in excess of one, we characterize…
SLIM efficiently solves overidentified models in a scalable manner.
Econometrics is based on the nonempiric notion of utility. Prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. Utility is usually treated by economists as a price potential, other times utility rates are treated as Lagrangians. Assumptions of integrability of Lagrangians and dynamics are im…
A contextual bandit method evaluates and improves inventory control policies.
Study improves cross-modal bike-share and transit demand prediction.
This paper investigates Merton's portfolio problem in a rough stochastic environment described by Volterra Heston model. The model has a non-Markovian and non-semimartingale structure. By considering an auxiliary random process, we solve the portfolio optimization problem with the martingale optimality principle. Optim…
Efficient optimization method reduces Full AdaGrad complexity.
Study of insurer games with model uncertainty in reinsurance and investment strategies.