Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on each other in a circular way, and it is a non-trivial problem to solve that circul…
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48 results for “stochastic cash-flows”
The paper fits cash management models to data using stochastic and linear programming.
problem Cash flow probability distribution assumptions in cash management models are relaxed.
method Stochastic and linear programming to fit models to data.
result A small random sample of data is sufficient to fit bound-based models.
Study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives, aligning with replication strategy and addressing timing frictions.
problem Inconsistencies in cash-flow forecasting under different measures and stochastic payment times.
method Use discounting sensitivities (funding-curve hedge ratios) for replication and propose a liquidity valuation adjustment.
result Aligns forecasting with replication strategy and avoids measure-mixing issues.
Information-Based Asset Pricingq-fin.PR
A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed as a function of a colle…
Develops a framework to analyze financial structures.
problem Difficulty in systematic analysis, comparison, and verification of financial structures.
method Formalizes financial structures as structured allocation systems with explicit allocation operators.
result Specifies inputs, structural requirements, and feasibility restrictions for financial structures.
Stochastic model for pension insurer assets and liabilities with mortality risk.
problem Modeling assets and liabilities with mortality risk in pensions insurers.
method Multivariate stochastic process for asset and liability returns, capturing dynamics and dependencies.
result Efficient computation of a million scenarios on personal computers.
Paper develops models to forecast private equity fund cash flows.
problem Limited literature on illiquid alternative asset cash flow forecasting.
method Develops benchmark model and two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) using LSTM/GRU models and macroeconomic indicators.
result Direct model performs better and aligns with actual cash flows, but indirect model's performance is less clear.
Cash Flow Entropyq-fin.GN
In this paper we aim to find a measure for the diversity of cash flows between agents in an economy. We argue that cash flows can be linked to probabilities of finding a currency unit in a given cash flow. We then use the information entropy as a natural measure of diversity. This leads to a hirarchical inequality meas…
Analyzes valuation of derivative claims with asymmetric funding costs and WWR.
problem Valuing and hedging derivative claims with bilateral cash flows in asymmetric funding and risk environments.
method Characterizes pre-default claim value as solution to a non-linear Cauchy problem, applies stochastic representation under linear funding policy.
result Derivative claim value can be represented as a portfolio of European options and admits an analytical formula involving elementary functions and Gaussian integrals.
Geometric Arbitrage Theory reformulates a generic asset model possibly allowing for arbitrage by packaging all assets and their forwards dynamics into a stochastic principal fibre bundle, with a connection whose parallel transport encodes discounting and portfolio rebalancing, and whose curvature measures, in this geom…
This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is determined by a collection of independent market factors called X-factors. The ma…
Study optimizes insurance liability cash flows with regulatory capital requirements.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities under regulatory capital constraints.
method Multiple-prior optimal stopping theory applied to insurance liabilities, considering hypothetical transfer and repeated capital requirements.
result Proposes a valuation functional for non-replicable cash flows, incorporating a margin for regulatory capital considerations.
In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to inco…
In this article, a sensitivity analysis of long-term cash flows with respect to perturbations in the underlying process is presented. For this purpose, we employ the martingale extraction through which a pricing operator is transformed into what is easier to address. The method of Fournie et al. will be combined with t…
We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replicatio…
Paper defines the payback period for nonconventional cash flows using axioms.
problem Defining the payback period for nonconventional cash flows is challenging.
method Used axiomatic approach to define the payback period.
result The last break-even point of the project balance is the only definition consistent with axioms.
Optimizes loan recovery timing by forecasting cash flows.
problem Minimizing overall credit loss in loan portfolios.
method Forecast future cash flows using probabilistic and Markov chain models.
result Empirical illustration of loss-optimal recovery timing.
In a market of deterministic cash flows, given as an additive, symmetric relation of exchangeability on the finite signed Borel measures on the non-negative real time axis, it is shown that the only arbitrage-free price functional that fulfills some additional mild requirements is the integral of the unit zero-coupon b…
Research improves LGD approximation using XGBoost for cash-flow-limited data.
problem Accurate LGD calculation with limited cash-flow data.
method Enhanced delta outstanding approach with XGBoost machine learning.
result XGBoost model enhances realized LGD estimation accuracy.
An optimization dichotomy for capital injections and absolutely continuous dividend strategiesmath.OC
Optimal control problem for firm cash flow with dividend and capital injection strategies.
problem Maximizing dividends while managing capital injections in a firm's cash flow.
method Proved two optimal strategies: mean-reverting dividends with capital injections or no injections until ruin.
result Optimal strategies are dichotomous: either mean-reverting dividends with injections or no injections.
A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.
problem Pricing insurance investment portfolios with time-to-event cash flows.
method Discrete-time survival analysis framework, hazard rate estimators, asymptotic multivariate normality.
result Pricing model yields estimates closer to actual cash flows than non-random models.
This paper closely examines theoretical and practical aspects of the widely used discounted cash flows (DCF) valuation method. It assesses its potentials as well as several weaknesses. A special emphasize is being put on the valuation of companies using the DCF method. The paper finds that the discounted cash flow meth…
Cash managers make daily decisions based on predicted monetary inflows from debtors and outflows to creditors. Usual assumptions on the statistical properties of daily net cash flow include normality, absence of correlation and stationarity. We provide a comprehensive study based on a real-world cash flow data set from…
The present paper provides the basis for a novel financial asset pricing model that could avoid the shortcomings of, or even completely replace the traditional DCF model. The model is based on Brownian motion logic and expected future cash flow values. It can be very useful for Islamic Finance.
We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably p…
A new framework for asset pricing based on modelling the information available to market participants is presented. Each asset is characterised by the cash flows it generates. Each cash flow is expressed as a function of one or more independent random variables called market factors or "X-factors". Each X-factor is ass…
This paper is devoted to study the effects arising from imposing a value-at-risk (VaR) constraint in mean-variance portfolio selection problem for an investor who receives a stochastic cash flow which he/she must then invest in a continuous-time financial market. For simplicity, we assume that there is only one investm…
The aim of this paper is to define the market-consistent multi-period value of an insurance liability cash flow in discrete time subject to repeated capital requirements, and explore its properties. In line with current regulatory frameworks, the approach presented is based on a hypothetical transfer of the original li…
Clarifies interest rate cap rules for loans with unconventional cash flows.
problem Ambiguity in applying interest rate caps to loans with non-conventional internal rate of return (IRR).
method Clarified conventional IRR definition, axiomatized, and extended to all loans.
result Unique extension of interest rate cap rule for all loans, based on net present value test.
Indices of acceptability are well suited to frame the axiomatic features of many performance measures, associated to terminal random cash flows.We extend this notion to classes of càdlàg processes modelling cash flows over a fixed investment horizon.We provide a representation result for bounded paths. We suggest an ac…
In our model, private actors with interbank cash flows similar to, but nore general than (Carmona, Fouque, Sun, 2013) borrow from the outside economy at a certain interest rate, controlled by the central bank, and invest in risky assets. Each private actor aims to maximize its expected terminal logarithmic utility. The…
This study shows how monetary uncertainty affects stock market reactions to macroeconomic news.
problem Understanding stock market reactions to macroeconomic news under varying levels of monetary uncertainty.
method Decomposes stock market response into cash flow and risk-free rate channels, analyzing time-varying effects.
result High monetary uncertainty weakens the positive stock market response to macroeconomic news.
The information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM) is extended to include a wider class of models for market information. In the BHM framework, each asset is associated with a collection of random cash flows. The price of the asset is the sum of the discounted conditional expectations of…
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
problem Reducing valuation risk in business valuation models.
method Recursive FCFF model with Kalman filtering to adjust WACC.
result Significant reduction in valuation risk by implementing Kalman filter.
Derives equations for life insurance reserves with interest rate uncertainty.
problem Life insurance reserves with stochastic interest rates.
method Partial differential equations for reserves under stochastic interest rates.
result Explicit solutions for reserves under specific models.
This paper investigates the large-time asymptotic behavior of the sensitivities of cash flows. In quantitative finance, the price of a cash flow is expressed in terms of a pricing operator of a Markov diffusion process. We study the extent to which the pricing operator is affected by small changes of the underlying Mar…
Ensemble method for fast portfolio valuation and risk management.
problem Dynamic portfolio valuation and risk management from cash flow data.
method Regression trees for dynamic value process learning.
result Fast and accurate estimator with closed-form solution.
Firm Projects, NPV and Riskphysics.soc-ph
An investor is estimating net present value of a firm project and performs risk analysis. Usually it is created portfolio hierarchies and make comparison of variants of project based on these hierarchies. Then one finds that portfolio which corresponds to the particular needs of individual groups within the firm. We ha…
Nonlinear Evidence of Investor Heterogeneity: Retail Cash Flows as Drivers of Market Dynamicsq-fin.GN
Study reveals investor heterogeneity in Korean equity market cash flows.
problem Investor heterogeneity and its impact on market dynamics.
method Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) on aggregated cash flows.
result Persistence in cash flows varies by investor type, with retail flows showing strong persistence.
In this paper we provide a valuation formula for different classes of actuarial and financial contracts which depend on a general loss process, by using the Malliavin calculus. In analogy with the celebrated Black-Scholes formula, we aim at expressing the expected cash flow in terms of a building block. The former is r…
In this paper incomplete-information models are developed for the pricing of securities in a stochastic interest rate setting. In particular we consider credit-risky assets that may include random recovery upon default. The market filtration is generated by a collection of information processes associated with economic…
An Empirical Assessment of the Accounting Semi-Identity Problem's Pervasiveness and Severityq-fin.GN
The paper finds a pervasive and severe bias in accounting semi-identity models.
problem Bias in investment-cash flow sensitivity models.
method Augmented specification with a bias-capturing variable tested across multiple databases.
result The Accounting Semi-Identity (ASI) distortion is universal and severe, affecting 100% of databases and explaining more than 83% of total explained variance.
Modeling bank portfolio risk under climate transition impacts.
problem Evaluating risk measures for a bank's collateralized loans in a climate transition economy.
method Developed an end-to-end modeling framework using stochastic processes and dynamic macroeconomic variables.
result Derived expressions for risk measures as functions of climate transition parameters.
In financial markets, the information that traders have about an asset is reflected in its price. The arrival of new information then leads to price changes. The `information-based framework' of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM) isolates the emergence of information, and examines its role as a driver of price dynamics.…
Model investor risk preferences to adjust real option valuation.
problem Investor risk preferences impact real option valuation.
method Model investor heterogeneity with different required returns, discounting cash flows with investor and market rates.
result Risk-adjusted valuation model facilitates subjective decision making.
We study conditions for existence, uniqueness and invariance of the comprehensive nonlinear valuation equations first introduced in Pallavicini et al (2011). These equations take the form of semilinear PDEs and Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDEs). After summarizing the cash flows definitions all…
This paper uses crypto derivatives data to estimate yield curves for cryptocurrencies.
problem Estimating yield curves for cryptocurrencies without bond markets.
method Using mathematical tools and data from cryptocurrency derivatives markets.
result Yield curves can be constructed for cryptocurrencies using derivative data.
Develops risk measures on Lipschitz spaces for financial positions.
problem Lack of standard cash-additive methods in Lipschitz spaces.
method Proposes Lipschitz-free space, uses additivity along benchmark-deviation instruments.
result Derives dual representations for convex and coherent risk measures.