Optimal estimator derived for partially observable LTI systems.
problem Optimal estimator for partially observable LTI systems.
method State-space representation for derivation of optimal estimator.
result Derivation of minimum error variance estimator for partially observable LTI systems.
PAC-Bayesian bounds for stochastic LTI systems derived.
problem Error bounds for stochastic LTI systems.
method PAC-Bayesian theory applied to autonomous stochastic LTI models.
result Error bounds for stochastic LTI systems derived.
Paper derives an error bound for stochastic LTI systems.
problem Stochastic LTI systems with inputs in control engineering and econometrics.
method PAC-Bayesian-Like error bound derivation.
result Derived an error bound for stochastic LTI systems.
A distributed system identification method for LTI systems using reverse experience replay.
problem Online system identification of LTI systems over multi-agent networks.
method DSGD-RER, a distributed variant of SGD-RER with backward updates.
result The estimation error decreases as the network size grows.
Paper derives PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI systems learning from empirical data.
problem Characterizing predictive power of LTI systems learned from data.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI stochastic dynamical systems with inputs.
result Finite-sample error bounds for learning algorithms of LTI systems.
New model stabilizes asynchronous LTI systems, independent of synchronous stability.
problem Stability of asynchronous LTI systems under randomization and asynchrony.
method Introduced a new model for random asynchronous LTI systems and developed a method for system identification.
result Stability of random asynchronous LTI systems is independent of synchronous stability.
The paper sets sample complexity bounds for identifying LTI systems from a finite set.
problem Identifying an LTI system from a finite set of possible systems using trajectory data.
method Maximum likelihood estimator and information theory tools.
result Upper and lower bounds for sample complexity are derived, independent of stability assumption.
New algorithm optimizes linear system estimation from single trajectory.
problem Estimating LTI systems from a single trajectory.
method SGD with Reverse Experience Replay (SGD−RER) result Optimal guarantees for parameter and prediction errors.
Solves parameter non-identifiability in Bayesian LTI system identification.
problem Parameter non-identifiability in standard Bayesian approaches for LTI system identification.
method Embedding canonical forms of LTI systems within the Bayesian framework.
result Unlocking the use of meaningful priors and robust uncertainty estimates.
Polynomial-time reachability for LTI systems with TLL NN controllers is achieved.
problem Bounding the reachable set of LTI systems controlled by TLL NN controllers.
method Polynomial-time computation of exact one-step reachable set and tight bounding box via two methods.
result Exact reachability computation in polynomial time for TLL NN controllers.
We consider the problem of learning a realization for a linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical system from input/output data. Given a single input/output trajectory, we provide finite time analysis for learning the system's Markov parameters, from which a balanced realization is obtained using the classical Ho-Kalman al…
Complex frequency generalizes eigenvalues in LTI systems.
problem Characterizing dynamics of signals with complex values.
method Geometric frequency interpretation and transformation analysis.
result Complex frequencies in LTI systems match eigenvalues.
The paper tackles estimation of hidden state LTI systems of unknown order.
problem Estimation of Markov parameters and minimal realization of unknown order LTI systems.
method Hankel penalized least square estimator, Ho-Kalman algorithm, and a combined algorithm.
result Statistical guarantees for estimation error, rank recovery, and sample complexity.
Study non-asymptotic estimation bounds for LTI models with Gaussian noise.
problem Estimating parameters of LTI models with non-asymptotic error bounds.
method Sharp non-asymptotic lower bounds using Cramér-Rao and van Trees inequalities, concentration results, and differential geometric constructions.
result Sharp and rate-optimal lower bounds for mean square estimation risk.
HOPE improves SSMs for long-memory tasks with robust initialization and training.
problem Improving state-space models for long-memory tasks with robust initialization and training.
method Developed a new parameterization scheme called HOPE using Hankel operators and Markov parameters.
result HOPE improves SSMs' performance on Long-Range Arena tasks and demonstrates non-decaying memory.
This systemic risk paper introduces inhomogeneous random financial networks (IRFNs). Such models are intended to describe parts, or the entirety, of a highly heterogeneous network of banks and their interconnections, in the global financial system. Both the balance sheets and the stylized crisis behaviour of banks are …
KKR uses Koopman theory to improve forecasting in complex systems.
problem Forecasting complex, nonlinear dynamical systems in decision-making.
method Derives a universal Koopman-invariant RKHS for LTI dynamical systems.
result KKR framework provides convergence results and generalization error bounds.
In this paper, we provide a unified analysis of temporal difference learning algorithms with linear function approximators by exploiting their connections to Markov jump linear systems (MJLS). We tailor the MJLS theory developed in the control community to characterize the exact behaviors of the first and second order …
Unified Bayesian framework for LTV system identification using neural networks and Gaussian Processes.
problem Identifying Linear Time-Varying systems from input-output data.
method Bayesian modeling of impulse response as a stochastic process, using neural networks and Gaussian Processes for inference.
result Framework can infer LTI system properties from a single noisy input-output pair, achieving lower error than classical methods.
SSMs have a built-in bias towards low-frequency components, which can be adjusted.
problem Frequency bias in SSMs affects their performance on long-range sequences.
method Proposed two mechanisms to tune frequency bias: scaling initialization or applying a Sobolev-norm-based filter.
result Tuning frequency bias improves SSMs' performance on long-range sequence learning tasks.
On-line detection of anomalies in time series is a key technique used in various event-sensitive scenarios such as robotic system monitoring, smart sensor networks and data center security. However, the increasing diversity of data sources and the variety of demands make this task more challenging than ever. Firstly, t…
Physics-based framework improves building energy forecasting.
problem Lack of physical correspondence in machine learning models for building energy systems.
method Combines LTI SSMs with subspace-based domain adaptation (SDA).
result Physics-derived subspaces align with data-derived subspaces for better forecasting.
The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is one of the most popular methods used to solve the problem of parametric distribution-based clustering in unsupervised learning. In this paper, we propose to analyze a generalized EM (GEM) algorithm in the context of Gaussian mixture models, where the maximization step in t…
This paper addresses the problem of identifying sparse linear time-invariant (LTI) systems from a single sample trajectory generated by the system dynamics. We introduce a Lasso-like estimator for the parameters of the system, taking into account their sparse nature. Assuming that the system is stable, or that it is eq…
Transformers can approximate Kalman Filtering in linear systems with small error.
problem Approximating Kalman Filtering using Transformers for linear dynamical systems.
method Two-step reduction: 1) Softmax self-attention block approximates Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing, 2) This estimator approximates Kalman Filter.
result Constructs a Transformer that implements the Kalman Filter with small additive error, uniformly bounded in time.
Study online control of unknown time-varying systems with negative and positive results.
problem Online control of time-varying systems with unknown dynamics.
method Algorithmic upper bounds and lower bounds for different policy classes.
result Sublinear adaptive regret bounds for Disturbance Response policies.
The focal point of this paper is the issue of "drawdown" which arises in recursive betting scenarios and related applications in the stock market. Roughly speaking, drawdown is understood to mean drops in wealth over time from peaks to subsequent lows. Motivated by the fact that this issue is of paramount concern to co…
Paper corrects and expands stochastic Lie systems theory.
problem Stochastic Lie systems and their properties.
method Corrected stochastic Lie theorem, introduced new stochastic Lie systems.
result Stochastic Lie systems can differ significantly between Stratonovich and Itô approaches.
The study analyzes stochastic Lie systems and their applications in various models.
problem Analyzing stochastic differential equations on manifolds.
method Coalgebra method for Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems.
result New examples of stochastic Lie systems and Hamiltonian stochastic Lie systems are analyzed.
A new FFT-based method simplifies causal structure recovery for linear dynamical systems.
problem Efficiently identifying dynamic causal effects from time-series data.
method FFT-based approach to reduce computational complexity to O(Tn3logN). result Significant computational advantage for graph reconstruction.
sFML learns stochastic dynamical systems from data.
problem Learning unknown stochastic dynamical systems from measurement data.
method sFML extends FML for deterministic systems, using a stochastic flow map composed of deterministic and stochastic sub-maps.
result sFML constructs a stochastic evolution model approximating unknown stochastic systems.
Proposes a new method combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow for predicting stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Predicting and capturing long-term behaviors of stochastic dynamical systems.
method Data-driven framework combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow, integrating error modeling and both approaches virtues.
result Successfully predicts the long-term evolution of stochastic dynamical systems and replicates dynamical behaviors.
New insights into spectral statistics of sample covariance matrix for stable linear systems.
problem Estimating high-dimensional stable state transition matrices from noisy data.
method Combining spectral theorem for non-Hermitian operators, concentration of measure, and perturbation theory.
result The spectral radius of the sample covariance matrix exhibits phase transitions in high dimensions.
This work learns effective dynamics from short-term data of stochastic systems.
problem Learning effective dynamics from short-term data of stochastic systems.
method Proposes a novel algorithm using a neural network (Auto-SDE) to learn invariant slow manifold from data.
result Validated through numerical experiments to be accurate, stable, and effective.
SVD-based methods reduce computational cost for stochastic systems.
problem High dimensionality and Monte Carlo runs in stochastic systems.
method Extending SVD-based model reduction to stochastic differential equations.
result Preserving symplectic structures improves accuracy and energy conservation.
PPPD framework extracts physical characterizations from stochastic mechanical systems.
problem Complex system behavior requires more than probabilistic descriptions of QoI.
method Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD) framework.
result Decomposes system behaviors into meaningful patterns in response space.
Method learns model for unknown stochastic system from data.
problem Modeling unknown stochastic dynamical systems.
method Autoencoder approach using deep neural networks (DNNs).
result Decoder serves as a predictive model for unknown stochastic systems.
Method learns dynamics of slow variables from stochastic data.
problem Modeling unknown multiscale stochastic systems with limited data.
method Data-driven approach to learn effective dynamics from bursts of observation data.
result Generative model accurately captures effective dynamics of slow variables.
Investigates spontaneous symmetry breaking in non-equilibrium systems.
problem Spontaneous symmetry breaking of ergodicity in non-equilibrium systems.
method Mathematical and effective field theory approaches to investigate symmetry breaking.
result Symmetry breaking phenomena observed in stochastic processes.
Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
problem Data-driven modeling of multistep stochastic dynamics.
method Adversarial learning with GANs and MMD for stable model classes.
result Stable generative models for long-time prediction and stochastic systems.
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
Develops a new method to discover stochastic systems with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Discovering governing laws from complex systems with non-Gaussian noise.
method Theoretical framework and numerical algorithm to extract stochastic differential equations with Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise.
result Demonstrated the efficacy and accuracy of the approach on various systems.
The paper develops robust tests for detecting independence in synchronous stochastic systems with finite sample guarantees.
problem Detecting independence in synchronous stochastic systems with finite sample guarantees.
method Combines confidence region estimates with permutation tests and dependence measures to detect nonlinear dependence.
result Consistent hypothesis tests for detecting independence under mild assumptions.
This paper presents a novel approach to numerically solve stochastic differential games for nonlinear systems. The proposed approach relies on the nonlinear Feynman-Kac theorem that establishes a connection between parabolic deterministic partial differential equations and forward-backward stochastic differential equat…
This paper proves a version for stochastic differential equations of the Lie-Scheffers Theorem. This result characterizes the existence of nonlinear superposition rules for the general solution of those equations in terms of the involution properties of the distribution generated by the vector fields that define it. Wh…
Deep learning scheme identifies and reconstructs chaotic and stochastic systems from noisy data.
problem Challenging identification of governing equations from noisy and partial observations.
method Jointly learns inference model and governing laws using variational deep learning.
result Framework generalizes state-of-the-art methods and accounts for stochastic variabilities.
Method extracts stochastic systems with Lévy noise from data.
problem Identifying stochastic dynamical systems with Lévy noise from short data.
method Estimate Lévy jump measure and noise intensity, approximate drift coefficient.
result Accurate and effective method for discovering stochastic laws.
We develop a family of reformulations of an arbitrary consistent linear system into a stochastic problem. The reformulations are governed by two user-defined parameters: a positive definite matrix defining a norm, and an arbitrary discrete or continuous distribution over random matrices. Our reformulation has several e…