A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.
problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.
The Lookahead optimizer improves SGD's performance and generalization without restrictive assumptions.
problem Improving the generalization of SGD with Lookahead.
method A rigorous stability and generalization analysis of the Lookahead optimizer with minibatch SGD, leveraging on-average model stability.
result Derives generalization bounds for convex and strongly convex problems without the restrictive Lipschitzness assumption, demonstrating a linear speedup with batch size.
The current study proposes a dimension reduction method, stepwise support vector machine (SVM), to reduce the dimensions of large p small n datasets. The proposed method is compared with other dimension reduction methods, namely, the Pearson product difference correlation coefficient (PCCs), recursive feature eliminati…
The vast majority of successful deep neural networks are trained using variants of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. Recent attempts to improve SGD can be broadly categorized into two approaches: (1) adaptive learning rate schemes, such as AdaGrad and Adam, and (2) accelerated schemes, such as heavy-ball an…
Magnitude-based pruning is one of the simplest methods for pruning neural networks. Despite its simplicity, magnitude-based pruning and its variants demonstrated remarkable performances for pruning modern architectures. Based on the observation that magnitude-based pruning indeed minimizes the Frobenius distortion of a…
Real Time Dynamic Programming (RTDP) is an online algorithm based on Dynamic Programming (DP) that acts by 1-step greedy planning. Unlike DP, RTDP does not require access to the entire state space, i.e., it explicitly handles the exploration. This fact makes RTDP particularly appealing when the state space is large and…
In this article, we advocate the ensemble approach for variable selection. We point out that the stochastic mechanism used to generate the variable-selection ensemble (VSE) must be picked with care. We construct a VSE using a stochastic stepwise algorithm, and compare its performance with numerous state-of-the-art algo…
Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness to account for downstream effects of ML predictions.
problem Downstream effects of ML predictions on individuals not considered by counterfactual fairness.
method Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness (LCF), a new fairness notion that considers future status. Proposes an algorithm based on theoretical conditions.
result Proposes an algorithm to achieve lookahead counterfactual fairness and validates it on synthetic and real data.
Lookahead, also known as non-myopic, Bayesian optimization (BO) aims to find optimal sampling policies through solving a dynamic program (DP) that maximizes a long-term reward over a rolling horizon. Though promising, lookahead BO faces the risk of error propagation through its increased dependence on a possibly mis-sp…
In this era of big data, feature selection techniques, which have long been proven to simplify the model, makes the model more comprehensible, speed up the process of learning, have become more and more important. Among many developed methods, forward and stepwise feature selection regression remained widely used due t…
This article presents fast lower and upper estimates for a large class of options: the class of constrained multiple exercise American options. Typical options in this class are swing options with volume and timing constraints, and passport options with multiple lookback rights. The lower estimate algorithm uses the ar…
In real world scenarios, objects are often partially occluded. This requires a robustness for object recognition against these perturbations. Convolutional networks have shown good performances in classification tasks. The learned convolutional filters seem similar to receptive fields of simple cells found in the prima…
We study the conditions for a nilpotent Lie group to be foliated into subgroups that have square integrable (relative discrete series) unitary representations, that fit together to form a filtration by normal subgroups. Then we use that filtration to construct a class of "stepwise square integrable" representations on …
Sequence generative adversarial networks (SeqGAN) have been used to improve conditional sequence generation tasks, for example, chit-chat dialogue generation. To stabilize the training of SeqGAN, Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) or reward at every generation step (REGS) is used to evaluate the goodness of a generated sub…
How can we design safe reinforcement learning agents that avoid unnecessary disruptions to their environment? We show that current approaches to penalizing side effects can introduce bad incentives, e.g. to prevent any irreversible changes in the environment, including the actions of other agents. To isolate the source…
Finite-horizon lookahead policies are abundantly used in Reinforcement Learning and demonstrate impressive empirical success. Usually, the lookahead policies are implemented with specific planning methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (e.g. in AlphaZero). Referring to the planning problem as tree search, a reasonable…