Adversarial consistency depends on the uniqueness of adversarial Bayes classifiers.
problem Consistency of adversarial surrogate losses is not guaranteed.
method Connected consistency of adversarial surrogate losses to the uniqueness of adversarial Bayes classifiers.
result A convex surrogate loss is statistically consistent for adversarial learning if and only if the adversarial Bayes classifier is unique.
New method uses imperfect LLM annotations for valid statistical inference in social science.
problem Inaccurate large language model annotations in social science research.
method Design-based supervised learning (DSL) combining imperfect LLM surrogates with gold-standard labels.
result DSL provides valid statistical inference with comparable predictive accuracy to existing methods.
Bayesian surrogate models reduce uncertainty in high-dimensional design optimisation problems.
problem Uncertainty in high-dimensional inputs for complex computational models.
method Variational Bayesian inference for constructing statistical surrogates with Gaussian process priors and KL divergence for approximation.
result The RDVGP surrogate provides accurate and versatile approximations for robust structural optimisation.
Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach to overcome this missing data problem is to analyze treatments effects on an int…
Optimal sampling strategy improves prediction accuracy with surrogate variables under measurement constraints.
problem Measurement-constrained datasets and lack of labeled data.
method A-optimality criterion for optimal sampling, leveraging surrogate variables.
result Achieves lower asymptotic variance and reduced empirical mean squared error.
New method for testing directed graphs using surrogate data.
problem No established method for statistical testing on directed graphs.
method Define directed graph wide-sense stationary signals, generate surrogates preserving covariance, construct null distributions.
result Feasibility and superiority of new approach over existing methods.
Paper develops algorithms for nonsmooth, nonconvex statistical learning problems.
problem Nonsmooth and nonconvex objectives in statistical learning.
method Bregman-surrogate algorithm framework, including local linear approximation, mirror descent, iterative thresholding, DC programming.
result Global convergence rates for nonconvex and nonsmooth objectives in high dimensions.
Conformal Candidate Certification advances offline MBO by certifying candidate designs with statistical guarantees.
problem Offline model-based optimization
method Conformal Candidate Certification (CCC)
result CCC certifies 16.7% of an aggressive proposal pool with 0.990 empirical coverage at nominal 0.90.
In this work we provide a theoretical framework for structured prediction that generalizes the existing theory of surrogate methods for binary and multiclass classification based on estimating conditional probabilities with smooth convex surrogates (e.g. logistic regression). The theory relies on a natural characteriza…
In statistical learning theory, convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss are highly preferred because of the computational and theoretical virtues that convexity brings in. This is of more importance if we consider smooth surrogates as witnessed by the fact that the smoothness is further beneficial both computationally- by at…
The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models and its impact on inference and decision-making.
method Bayesian inference methods for surrogate models with measurement data.
result Scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate models.
New method simplifies checking consistency of differentiable loss functions.
problem Verifying consistency of differentiable loss functions is difficult.
method Developed a new approach called strong indirect elicitation (strong IE) to simplify checking consistency.
result Strong IE is equivalent to calibration for strongly convex, differentiable surrogates.
New statistical guarantee improves conformal predictors for small datasets.
problem Uncertainty quantification for small datasets in surrogate models.
method Proposed a new statistical guarantee for conformal predictors, converging to standard CP for large datasets.
result The new guarantee offers relevant information about coverage for small data sizes, improving applicability.
New method uses AI predictions as cheaper alternatives to expensive outcomes.
problem Using expensive outcomes for statistical inference.
method Recalibrated prediction-powered inference using machine learning techniques.
result Significant gains in effective sample size over existing PPI proposals.
Develops a numerical algorithm for stochastic impulse control using regression surrogates.
problem Optimal impulse control in stochastic processes.
method Generates statistical surrogates for continuation and intervention functions, recursively trained over simulated state trajectories.
result Demonstrates flexibility and extensibility of the numerical scheme through case studies.
EASE estimator improves probabilistic value estimation efficiency.
problem Efficiently estimating probabilistic values like Shapley and semivalues.
method Developed an Efficiency-Aware Surrogate-adjusted Estimator (EASE) that minimizes first-order mean squared error.
result EASE consistently outperforms existing estimators for various probabilistic values.
Robust optimization and statistical robustness improve robot navigation policies.
problem Efficiently finding optimal robot navigation policies in uncertain environments.
method Combining robust optimization and statistical robustness with improved Bayesian optimization techniques.
result Safe and repeatable robot navigation policies are achieved with improved robust optimization methods.
The paper proposes a method to assess surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.
problem Lack of methods to evaluate surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.
method Proposes a framework using meta-learners to assess surrogate heterogeneity in real-world data.
result Identifies individuals for whom the surrogate is a valid replacement of the primary outcome.
Linear-Core Surrogates combine fast optimization and statistical efficiency in classification and structured prediction.
problem The trade-off between smoothness and margin-based losses in classification and structured prediction.
method Linear-Core (LC) Surrogates, a family of convex loss functions that stitch a linear core to a smooth tail.
result LC Surrogates achieve fast linear consistency rates while maintaining differentiability and strict H-consistency bounds. Deep adaptive sampling improves surrogate modeling for complex systems.
problem Statistical errors in random sampling for high-dimensional problems.
method DAS^2 method, using deep generative models to refine training sets.
result Reduces statistical errors in approximating solutions for low-regularity problems.
Surrogate testing techniques have been used widely to investigate the presence of dynamical nonlinearities, an essential ingredient of deterministic chaotic processes. Traditional surrogate testing subscribes to statistical hypothesis testing and investigates potential differences in discriminant statistics between the…
Surrogate model construction for vector-valued outputs
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy and stability for complex engineering systems
method Adaptive sequential sampling for polynomial chaos expansion
result Improves surrogate accuracy and stability
We establish linear regret bounds for convex smooth losses using Fenchel-Young losses.
problem Establishing linear regret bounds for convex smooth losses.
method Constructing a convex smooth surrogate loss using Fenchel-Young losses generated by the convolutional negentropy.
result We derive a smooth loss with a linear surrogate regret bound.
New method integrates real and synthetic data to improve machine learning models.
problem Expensive or impractical collection of high-quality data limits machine learning.
method Weighted empirical risk minimization approach for integrating surrogate data.
result Integrating surrogate data can significantly reduce test error on the original distribution.
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogat…
Paper proposes a surrogate model for efficient experience rating in large insurance portfolios.
problem Inexpensive and transparent computation of Bayesian premiums for large insurance portfolios.
method Surrogate modeling approach using likelihood-based summary statistics.
result Reduced computational burden and provided a transparent way of computing Bayesian premiums.
A new sampling strategy improves reliability and robustness optimization for complex designs.
problem High sample requirements for optimizing reliability and robustness in complex designs.
method Local Latin Hypercube Refinement (LoLHR) for multi-objective design uncertainty optimization.
result LoLHR achieves better results compared to other surrogate-based strategies.
We propose a robust adversarial prediction framework for general multiclass classification. Our method seeks predictive distributions that robustly optimize non-convex and non-continuous multiclass loss metrics against the worst-case conditional label distributions (the adversarial distributions) that (approximately) m…
SRRM improves recursive transport surrogates in the small-discrepancy regime.
problem Insufficient understanding of recursive partitioning methods' statistical behavior and resolution in the small-discrepancy regime.
method Introduced Selective Recursive Rank Matching (SRRM) to improve the resolution of Recursive Rank Matching (RRM).
result SRRM yields a higher-fidelity practical surrogate for the Wasserstein distance at moderate additional computational cost.
Proposes φ-table for statistical SHAP explanations in regression models.
problem Lack of clear directional summaries, uncertainty, and fidelity in SHAP feature importance.
method SHAP importance selection, fitting a standardized linear surrogate, reporting coefficients, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
result Extends SHAP into a statistical global explanation with direction, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
Adaptive learning method for stochastic programs with latent uncertainty.
problem Stochastic programming problems with implicitly decision-dependent uncertainty.
method Adaptive learning-based surrogate method integrating simulation and statistical estimates.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis for enhanced stability and efficiency.
A new kernel improves statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with diverse data.
problem Handling statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data.
method A transient anisotropic kernel is introduced to improve statistical surrogates for stochastic manifolds with heterogeneous data.
result The transient anisotropic kernel provides a better representation of statistical dependencies in the learned probability measure.
This paper proposes a mechanism to produce equivalent Lipschitz surrogates for zero-norm and rank optimization problems by means of the global exact penalty for their equivalent mathematical programs with an equilibrium constraint (MPECs). Specifically, we reformulate these combinatorial problems as equivalent MPECs by…
Surrogate Data Analysis (SDA) is a statistical hypothesis testing framework for the determination of weak chaos in time series dynamics. Existing SDA procedures do not account properly for the rich structures observed in stock return sequences, attributed to the presence of heteroscedasticity, seasonal effects and outl…
Polynomial chaos surrogates handle intrinsic noise in stochastic models.
problem Handling intrinsic noise in stochastic models with parametric uncertainty.
method Developed a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty using Rosenblatt transformations and Karhunen-Loeve expansion.
result Quantified intrinsic noise contribution to model output variance using PCE Sobol indices.
This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be…
We present a Communication-efficient Surrogate Likelihood (CSL) framework for solving distributed statistical inference problems. CSL provides a communication-efficient surrogate to the global likelihood that can be used for low-dimensional estimation, high-dimensional regularized estimation and Bayesian inference. For…
Reduced-rank method improves least-squares regression under output regularity.
problem Least-squares regression with infinite dimensional outputs.
method Reduced-rank method for solving least-squares problems with output regularity assumptions.
result Learning bounds and improved statistical performance compared to full-rank method.
Study on learning to defer to multiple experts with consistent surrogates and confidence calibration.
problem Addressing the open problems of consistent surrogates, confidence calibration, and ensembling of experts.
method Derive two consistent surrogates (softmax and OvA) and propose a conformal inference technique for choosing experts.
result The OvA-based loss does not cause mis-calibration propagation, while the softmax-based loss does.
New method improves solving combinatorial optimization problems with smoothed policies.
problem Solving combinatorial optimization problems repeatedly with varying instances.
method Smoothed policies with controlled random perturbations to linear oracle, leading to differentiable surrogate risk.
result Generalization bound decomposes excess risk into bias, estimation, and optimization components.
Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical…
We present a new machine learning approach to estimate personalized treatment effects in the classical potential outcomes framework with binary outcomes. To overcome the problem that both treatment and control outcomes for the same unit are required for supervised learning, we propose surrogate loss functions that inco…
Automatically searching for optimal hyperparameter configurations is of crucial importance for applying deep learning algorithms in practice. Recently, Bayesian optimization has been proposed for optimizing hyperparameters of various machine learning algorithms. Those methods adopt probabilistic surrogate models like G…
Conformal prediction improves prediction intervals for PCEs, especially in sparse cases.
problem Quantifying local model errors in PCEs for small datasets.
method Integration of conformal prediction methods (full and Jackknife+) into full and sparse PCEs.
result Better-calibrated prediction intervals for both full and sparse PCEs.
KrigHedge uses Gaussian processes to approximate option Greeks efficiently.
problem Computing option Greeks in complex models is computationally expensive or inexact.
method Gaussian process surrogates trained on noisy option prices, with analytical differentiation for sensitivities.
result The method provides accurate Delta approximations and quantifies hedging loss.
Bayesian adaptive PCE method improves surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis.
problem Lack of fully Bayesian PCE methods in statistics.
method Developed a novel fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with R implementation.
result Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for various UQ tasks.
Paper introduces efficient methods for estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices.
problem Efficiently estimating cross-partial derivatives and sensitivity indices in complex models.
method Using randomized points and constraints, the paper develops estimators with optimal convergence rates and low bias.
result The estimators achieve optimal rates of convergence and do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality.
A new method for unlearning trained models without needing the original data.
problem Lack of access to original training data for privacy-preserving unlearning.
method Uses a surrogate dataset to approximate statistical properties and calibrates noise based on statistical distance.
result Effective unlearning of trained models with strong privacy guarantees, even without access to the original data.