A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.
Study interpolating estimators for causal learning from observational data.
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
SLOE speeds up logistic regression in high dimensions with accurate signal strength estimation.
High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross…
A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.
Paper explores statistical and computational limits of estimating low-rank Gaussian mixtures.
In this paper the correlation between education, research and macroeconomic strength of countries at a global scale is analyzed on the basis of statistical data published by the UNIDO and OECD. It uses sets of composite indicators describing the economical performance and competitiveness as well as those relevant for h…
For analysis of a high-dimensional dataset, a common approach is to test a null hypothesis of statistical independence on all variable pairs using a non-parametric measure of dependence. However, because this approach attempts to identify any non-trivial relationship no matter how weak, it often identifies too many rel…
Proposes Population Difference Criterion for visually observed subpopulation differences.
In this paper, we propose a perturbation framework to measure the robustness of graph properties. Although there are already perturbation methods proposed to tackle this problem, they are limited by the fact that the strength of the perturbation cannot be well controlled. We firstly provide a perturbation framework on …
Identifies learning rules from neural network observables.
We propose a new variational family for Bayesian neural networks. We decompose the variational posterior into two components, where the radial component captures the strength of each neuron in terms of its magnitude; while the directional component captures the statistical dependencies among the weight parameters. The …
In this study, the effects of eight representation regularization methods are investigated, including two newly developed rank regularizers (RR). The investigation shows that the statistical characteristics of representations such as correlation, sparsity, and rank can be manipulated as intended, during training. Furth…
This paper introduces a new property of estimators of the strength of statistical association, which helps characterize how well an estimator will perform in scenarios where dependencies between continuous and discrete random variables need to be rank ordered. The new property, termed the estimator response curve, is e…
Deep heteroskedastic models overfit, showing a phase transition with regularization strength.
Paper optimizes private PCA for covariance estimation in statistics.
Common statistical practice has shown that the full power of Bayesian methods is not realized until hierarchical priors are used, as these allow for greater "robustness" and the ability to "share statistical strength." Yet it is an ongoing challenge to provide a learning-theoretically sound formalism of such notions th…
In the context of sparse principal component detection, we bring evidence towards the existence of a statistical price to pay for computational efficiency. We measure the performance of a test by the smallest signal strength that it can detect and we propose a computationally efficient method based on semidefinite prog…
RealStats detects fake images rigorously, combining multiple detectors for robustness.
Models with many signals, high-dimensional models, often impose structures on the signal strengths. The common assumption is that only a few signals are strong and most of the signals are zero or close (collectively) to zero. However, such a requirement might not be valid in many real-life applications. In this article…
Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily account for explanatory variables and share statistical strength across groups of rela…
The -regularized least squares problem (a.k.a. best subsets) is central to sparse statistical learning and has attracted significant attention across the wider statistics, machine learning, and optimization communities. Recent work has shown that modern mixed integer optimization (MIO) solvers can be used to addre…
Relationship lending is broadly interpreted as a strong partnership between a lender and a borrower. Nevertheless, we still lack consensus regarding how to quantify the strength of a lending relationship, while simple statistics such as the frequency and volume of loans have been used as proxies in previous studies. He…
Consistent estimator derived for confounding strength in observational data.
New tests detect communities in dense bipartite graphs with high accuracy.
Proposes a method to calibrate data for more accurate linear correlation testing.
PAS improves estimation of multiple means using ML predictions and shrinkage.
SI-CLAD improves clustering-based anomaly detection by controlling false positives.
Learning predictive models from small high-dimensional data sets is a key problem in high-dimensional statistics. Expert knowledge elicitation can help, and a strong line of work focuses on directly eliciting informative prior distributions for parameters. This either requires considerable statistical expertise or is l…
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
This review summarizes five Lasso optimization algorithms.
We are concerned with modeling the strength of links in networks by taking into account how often those links are used. Link usage is a strong indicator of how closely two nodes are related, but existing network models in Bayesian Statistics and Machine Learning are able to predict only wether a link exists at all. As …
The paper investigates causal relationships in heart failure prediction using machine learning.
Deep models improve spatial and spatio-temporal data analysis.
This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. The problem is formulated by optimizing a criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength of the portfolio and taking into consideration the variance of the portfolio and an investment budg…
The structure of a Bayesian network encodes most of the information about the probability distribution of the data, which is uniquely identified given some general distributional assumptions. Therefore it's important to study the variability of its network structure, which can be used to compare the performance of diff…
An algorithm reduces breast cancer detection data complexity using effect sizes.
Understanding tie strength in social networks, and the factors that influence it, have received much attention in a myriad of disciplines for decades. Several models incorporating indicators of tie strength have been proposed and used to quantify relationships in social networks, and a standard set of structural networ…
This paper introduces a nonparametric copula-based index for detecting the strength and monotonicity structure of linear and nonlinear statistical dependence between pairs of random variables or stochastic signals. Our index, termed Copula Index for Detecting Dependence and Monotonicity (CIM), satisfies several desirab…
DAF uses attention sharing to adapt forecasts from abundant to scarce data.
Novel method uses information theory to measure causal influences during transient neural events.
We study sequential change-point detection procedures based on linear sketches of high-dimensional signal vectors using generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistics. The GLR statistics allow for an unknown post-change mean that represents an anomaly or novelty. We consider both fixed and time-varying projections, deri…
This paper calculates interaction strength for translation surfaces with multiple singularities.
Ranking problems, also known as preference learning problems, define a widely spread class of statistical learning problems with many applications, including fraud detection, document ranking, medicine, credit risk screening, image ranking or media memorability. In this article, we systematically review different types…
Investigate the evolving structure of cryptocurrency interactions using high-frequency returns.
Estimates binary labels from dependent data using Markov Random Fields.
Improved anomaly detection for launch vehicle propulsion systems using LSTM and statistical relabeling.