Paper uses learned summary statistics for Bayesian inference with difficult likelihood functions.
problem Difficult to obtain exact likelihood function for observation data and simulation model.
method Simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, using Cressie-Read discrepancy criterion.
result Effective inference performed over selected sample sets of observation data.
Study validates ML-UQ calibration statistics using simulated reference values.
problem Validation of ML-UQ calibration statistics is lacking due to lack of predefined reference values.
method Proposed validation workflow using simulated reference values derived from synthetic datasets.
result Some statistics, like CC and ENCE, are overly sensitive to generative distribution choice.
Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a paradigm that enables simulation-based posterior inference in su…
Contrastive learning simplifies statistical inference for complex models.
problem Computational intractability of likelihood functions for certain models.
method Contrastive learning as an alternative for parameter estimation and inference.
result Contrastive learning enables practical methods for diverse statistical problems.
wBSL uses whitening transformations to speed up BSL for intractable likelihood models.
problem Computational demands of Bayesian synthetic likelihood with growing summary statistics.
method Whitening transformations to decorrelate summary statistics.
result Significant reduction in model simulations required for accurate inference.
The thesis tackles overconfident approximations in simulation-based inference.
problem Overconfident conclusions from machine learning approximations in statistical analyses.
method Introduces balancing and Bayesian neural networks to reduce overconfidence.
result Balancing and Bayesian neural networks lead to less overconfident approximations.
Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
problem Project control under uncertainty.
method Integrates Earned Value Methodology with Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning.
result Estimates probabilities of project success and duration.
Study compares forecasting methods for logistics time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in logistics.
method Compared statistical and machine learning methods on simulated time series.
result Statistical methods outperformed machine learning in one-step forecasts.
Paper uses K-NN resampling to simulate and evaluate LOB markets.
problem Simulating and evaluating limit order book (LOB) markets.
method Applies K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) resampling to LOB simulation and evaluation. result Demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of K-NN resampling in LOB simulation and evaluation. New method validates approximate likelihood and emulator models for expensive simulations.
problem Validation of approximate likelihood and emulator models for computationally intensive simulations.
method Statistical framework using two-sample and global goodness-of-fit tests.
result Can distinguish misspecified models and identify inadequate regions.
Researchers analyze a new neural network training method.
problem Training robust configurations in discrete weight neural networks.
method Replicated simulated annealing combining physics and classical simulated annealing.
result Explicit criteria for algorithm convergence and successful sampling.
Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical…
New method improves SBI efficiency and scalability.
problem Scalability issues in SBI methods for large datasets.
method Langevin dynamics with score matching, exploiting likelihood structure.
result Structured score network enhances statistical efficiency and scalability.
SBI with ML helps solve complex problems in science and engineering.
problem Solving inverse problems in science and engineering.
method Bayesian and frequentist statistical frameworks with machine learning.
result Machine learning methods can be applied to Bayesian and frequentist inference.
Method generates dense fields from sparse measurements without needing spatial statistics or examples.
problem Generating dense physical fields from sparse measurements.
method Introduces a differentiable numerical simulator into neural network training.
result Superior results on fluid mechanics problems compared to statistical and neural network methods.
A method uses neural networks to approximate sampling distributions of test statistics.
problem Accurate modeling of p-value functions or cdfs for correct confidence set coverage.
method Uses neural networks to model the cdf of test statistics, approximating sampling distributions.
result Neural network approximations of sampling distributions are effective and simple.
The paper develops a new simulation technique for estimating conditional expectations in financial models.
problem Estimating conditional expectations in financial models with expensive simulation of endogenous variables.
method Introduces a hierarchical simulation scheme with oversimplified defaults to address variance issues.
result The hierarchical simulation technique significantly improves the success of neural net regression for conditional expectation estimation.
Develops black-box methods to estimate parameters of complex models.
problem Lack of efficient methods to produce simulations for complex statistical models.
method Pre-training deep neural networks on extensive simulated databases for well-structured likelihoods. Iterative algorithm for other complex dependencies.
result Successfully estimates and quantifies uncertainty of parameters from non-Gaussian models.
Proposes a method to improve SBI under model misspecification.
problem Unreliable inference from SBI methods under model misspecification.
method Introduces a regularized loss function to penalize statistics that increase model-data mismatch.
result Demonstrates superior performance and robust inference in misspecified scenarios.
Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We assume that only a finite number of parameters are of interest and allow the generat…
INFERNO optimizes neural optimisation for complex simulations.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for complex simulations.
method Construct non-linear summary statistics via minimising inference-motivated losses.
result Proposed method outperforms existing techniques in confidence interval estimation.
The paper proposes methods to infer from privacy-protected data using simulation-based techniques.
problem Valid statistical inference from privacy-protected data is computationally challenging.
method Simulation-based inference methods, including sequential Monte Carlo and neural conditional density estimators.
result Valid statistical inferences can be made from privacy-protected data.
CHARM creates mock halo catalogs from dark matter density fields using neural networks.
problem Creating accurate mock halo catalogs for cosmological studies is computationally expensive.
method CHARM uses multi-stage neural spline flow networks to learn the mapping from dark matter density fields to halo catalogs.
result Mock halo catalogs have the same statistical properties as those from high-resolution N-body simulations.
Paper tackles SBI under model misspecification, presenting robust strategies.
problem Challenges in SBI under model misspecification.
method Three key strategies: robust summary statistics, generalised Bayesian inference, and error modelling.
result Empirical results show vulnerabilities of SBI and effectiveness of misspecification-robust alternatives.
Improved GAN for chaotic systems reduces training time and captures statistics.
problem Training GANs for chaotic dynamical systems is challenging and often fails to capture true statistics.
method Statistical constraints enforced in GANs to improve model fidelity and reduce training time.
result Statistical regularization leads to better performance in capturing physical properties and significantly reduced training time.
BSL package simplifies Bayesian synthetic likelihood for complex models.
problem Estimating posterior distributions for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Approximates likelihood via model simulation and density estimation, using penalized covariance and semi-parametric approaches.
result Reduces the need for model simulations and improves efficiency compared to ABC.
Bayesian and simulation methods predict credit default probabilities.
problem Assessing credit risk in large customer portfolios.
method Two-phase approach: Bayesian estimation followed by Monte Carlo simulations.
result Estimation of true default rates through simulations.
Deep learning used for parameter estimation in hard-to-infer models.
problem Parameter estimation in intractable models like max-stable processes.
method Train deep neural networks on simulated data to estimate parameters.
result Deep learning provides accurate and faster parameter estimation.
The paper shows how shared random seeds can reduce variance in machine learning evaluations.
problem The statistical structure of comparative evaluation under shared random seeds is not well understood.
method An extended learning-based multi-agent economic simulator was used to demonstrate the effects of shared random seeds on variance reduction.
result Pairing seeds can reduce variance in machine learning evaluations, especially when outcomes are positively correlated at the seed level.
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference with intractable likelihood.
method Score Matching neural conditional exponential families for approximate likelihood.
result State-of-the-art performance in posterior sampling for intractable likelihood models.
Active learning method for ABC statistics selection reduces expert work and improves posterior estimates.
problem Handling intractable likelihood functions in models with domain knowledge.
method Active learning method for selecting summary statistics in ABC.
result Better posterior estimates than existing methods, especially with limited simulation budget.
A new RL framework tackles asset allocation problems using Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Existing asset allocation methods fail to consider portfolio management and financial market characteristics.
method Proposes a new reinforcement learning framework that considers portfolio state and uses Monte Carlo simulation to prevent overfitting.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmarks in various test intervals.
Improves inference from sparse data with hybrid summary statistics.
problem Robust simulation-based inference from limited data.
method Augment traditional summary statistics with neural network outputs to maximize mutual information.
result Improves information extraction and makes inference robust in low-data settings.
A novel kernel approach for model selection in simulator-based models.
problem Model selection for simulator-based statistical models with limited prior knowledge.
method Iteratively updates model weights and parameters using Bayes' rule and kernel recursive ABC algorithm.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on dynamical systems in ecology and epidemiology.
New methods improve confidence set calibration in complex models.
problem Challenges in maintaining confidence set coverage in complex models.
method TRUST and TRUST++ methods using simulated data for calibration.
result Methods achieve distribution-free conditional coverage and robust inference.
Improved Monte Carlo simulations using RBMs for phase transitions.
problem Slow mixing times in Monte Carlo simulations for complex systems.
method Fit unnormalized probability to a restricted Boltzmann machine and use its feature detection ability for efficient updates.
result Improved acceptance ratio and autocorrelation time near phase transition points.
Private variable selection method controls FDR with simulations showing reasonable power.
problem Performing variable selection with privacy constraints.
method Private knockoff filter using Gaussian and Laplace mechanisms.
result Achieves controlled false discovery rate (FDR) in variable selection.
In this paper we present detailed simulation results on the wealth distribution model with quenched saving propensities. Unlike other wealth distribution models where the saving propensities are either zero or constant, this model is not found to be ergodic and self-averaging. The wealth distribution statistics with a …
Analyzes unsupervised neural networks using statistical mechanics and Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Understanding computational capabilities of unsupervised neural networks.
method Statistical mechanics approach and Monte Carlo simulations.
result Obtained a phase diagram summarizing network performance.
New method corrects selection bias in complex models.
problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.
BERET improves binary expansion test for multivariate independence.
problem Testing independence of random vectors in arbitrary dimensions.
method Ensemble approach using sum of squared symmetry statistics and distance correlation.
result Improves power while preserving interpretability.
This research improves calorimeter simulations by creating a faster model.
problem Efficiently simulating detailed calorimeter data for high-energy physics.
method Developed a conditional normalizing flow model for superresolution.
result The model successfully reproduces reference distributions.
ABC method uses machine learning for likelihood-free inference.
problem Statistical inference in simulator-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Direct comparison of empirical distributions via KL divergence estimator and contrastive learning.
result Asymptotic normality of ABC posterior distributions with properly scaled exponential kernel.
Enhances weak lensing inference with neural summaries.
problem Extracting additional information from weak lensing convergence maps.
method Hybrid approach combining physics-based and neural summaries.
result Neural summaries extract up to 8 times more information than angular power spectra.
Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealing.
problem Efficiently compressing statistical floating-point data.
method Representation learning with binary variables, classical optimization of basis vectors, quantum annealing for coefficients, bias correction.
result Quantum annealing shows promising results with 3.5x better compression than neural-network autoencoders.
This paper compares and evaluates methods for evaluating statistical models using benchmarking data and simulations.
problem Choosing between benchmarking data sets and simulation studies for method comparison studies.
method Borrowing ideas from mixed methods research and Clinical Scenario Evaluation, the paper investigates and develops new approaches to evaluate methods.
result Develops new approaches to evaluate methods by combining the strengths of benchmarking data sets and simulation studies.
Machine learning improves long-time molecular dynamics simulations.
problem Expensive long-time MD simulations for practical applications.
method Novel machine learning techniques for efficient sampling and model learning.
result Machine learning can revolutionize long-timescale MD simulations.
Generative adversarial networks with attention improve financial time series simulation.
problem Limited real financial data for training and evaluation of trading strategies.
method Two generative adversarial networks (GANs) using convolutional networks with attention and transformers.
result Attention-based GANs better reproduce stylized facts and smooth returns autocorrelation.