Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters of a predictive distribution are estimated from a training period. We propose a…
Deep neural networks improve ensemble weather forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency of ensemble weather forecasts.
method Mixed model combining subset of trajectories with deep neural networks for post-processing.
result Achieved over 14% relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill.
The study analyzes the conflict between group fairness and individual fairness in machine learning.
problem The conflict between group fairness (optimal statistical parity) and individual fairness in machine learning.
method Established sufficient conditions for the compatibility between optimal statistical parity and individual fairness requirements.
result Identified regions along the Pareto frontier that satisfy individual fairness requirements.
A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.
problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.
New method improves wind and solar energy forecasts by 48 hours.
problem Volatility of wind and solar energy makes accurate forecasts difficult.
method Two-step machine learning approach to calibrate ensemble forecasts.
result Statistical post-processing improves forecast skill by at least 48 hours.
Neural network-based post-processing improves ensemble forecast sharpness
problem Reducing the width of central prediction intervals in ensemble forecasts
method Extending loss function with a penalty term
result 8.2%-12.5% reduction in width of central prediction interval
Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.
Improved visibility forecasts using statistical post-processing.
problem Accurate and reliable predictions of visibility are crucial in aviation and transportation.
method Calibrated ensemble forecasts using locally, semi-locally, and regionally trained POLR and MLP classifiers.
result Post-processing improves forecast skill and POLR models outperform MLPs.
New method wraps black-box classifiers to reduce bias.
problem Reduction of bias in black-box predictions.
method Post-processing with α-trees and boosting algorithms.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in reducing bias across multiple fairness metrics.
The increased usage of solar energy places additional importance on forecasts of solar radiation. Solar panel power production is primarily driven by the amount of solar radiation and it is therefore important to have accurate forecasts of solar radiation. Accurate forecasts that also give information on the forecast u…
Post-processing corrects bias in ML systems without retraining.
problem Correcting bias in ML systems that are already in use.
method Proposes general post-processing algorithms for individual fairness based on graph Laplacian regularization.
result Empirically, post-processing algorithms correct individual biases in large-scale NLP models while preserving accuracy.
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics
Image post-processing is used in clinical-grade ultrasound scanners to improve image quality (e.g., reduce speckle noise and enhance contrast). These post-processing techniques vary across manufacturers and are generally kept proprietary, which presents a challenge for researchers looking to match current clinical-grad…
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
problem Limited spatial patterns in current post-processing methods.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial wind speed information.
result CNNs produce better probabilistic forecasts with higher Brier skill scores.
Algorithm ensures demographic parity in regression without sensitive attribute data.
problem Performing regression with demographic parity constraints.
method Post-processing algorithm using accurate estimates and sensitive attribute predictor.
result Generates predictions meeting demographic parity constraint.
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in wind speed prediction.
method Adapting prediction with expert advice theory to probabilistic forecasts, combining raw or post-processed ensembles, and using CRPS and Jolliffe-Primo tests.
result Combining probabilistic forecasts can lead to more reliable and skillful predictions, as shown by the Jolliffe-Primo test.
Framework purifies approximate differential privacy to pure differential privacy.
problem Achieving pure differential privacy from approximate differential privacy.
method Randomized post-processing with calibrated noise to eliminate δ parameter.
result First statistically and computationally efficient reduction from approximate DP to pure DP.
Risk-controlled post-processing optimizes decision policies under risk constraints.
problem Optimizing decision policies with risk constraints for better outcomes.
method Developed a post-processing algorithm that selects a threshold based on fitted fallback policy and score, leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes.
result The post-processed policy achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability and meets or nearly meets risk budgets while preserving more agreement with the baseline.
This paper tackles inventory control with general arrival dynamics and post-processing, improving profitability.
problem Inventory control with arbitrary arrival dynamics and post-processing constraints.
method Formulated as an exogenous decision process, incorporating deep generative models for arrivals, and applying supervised learning techniques.
result Improves profitability over production baselines and real-world A/B test data.
Word vectors are at the core of many natural language processing tasks. Recently, there has been interest in post-processing word vectors to enrich their semantic information. In this paper, we introduce a novel word vector post-processing technique based on matrix conceptors (Jaeger2014), a family of regularized ident…
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
New algorithm reduces bias in trained models, near-optimal performance proven.
problem Reduction of bias in trained machine learning models.
method Scalable post-processing algorithm for debiasing trained models, including deep neural networks (DNNs).
result Proven to be near-optimal by bounding its excess Bayes risk.
Paper proves fair classification can be done via simple thresholding.
problem Achieving fair binary classification subject to group fairness constraints.
method Proves Bayes optimal fair learning rule is a group-wise thresholding rule over the Bayes regressor with randomization.
result Proposes an efficient unconstrained optimization algorithm for post-processing fair classification.
Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.
problem Improving the accuracy and reliability of wind speed predictions for power generation.
method A novel machine learning approach for calibrating wind speed ensemble forecasts.
result The proposed method improves the calibration and accuracy of probabilistic and point forecasts.
A fundamental result in differential privacy states that the privacy guarantees of a mechanism are preserved by any post-processing of its output. In this paper we investigate under what conditions stochastic post-processing can amplify the privacy of a mechanism. By interpreting post-processing as the application of a…
Post-processing predictors reduces calibration errors for decision-making.
problem Predictors with low calibration error for machine learning may have high error for decision-making.
method Post-processing with ε distance to calibration adds noise to make predictions differentially private.
result Post-processing achieves O(√ε) ECE and CDL, asymptotically optimal.
The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term PV power forecasts for Chile's Atacama Desert.
method 8-member ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance using WRF model, calibrated with EMOS and DRN.
result Machine learning-based post-processing methods improve forecast accuracy and calibration.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
New method improves decision-making accuracy without complex calculations.
problem Improving decision-making accuracy in machine learning.
method Introducing a new measure called calibration decision loss (CDLK) for structured families of post-processing functions. result Proves upper and lower bounds for natural classes K of post-processing functions. Enhances fairness in multi-output models using optimal transport.
problem Improving fairness in multi-output models like multi-task/multi-class classification and representation learning.
method Post-processing method using optimal transport mappings to move model outputs towards empirical Wasserstein barycenter.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed approach on multi-task/multi-class classification and representation learning tasks.
Enhances fairness in predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Balancing fairness and predictive performance in machine learning.
method Model ensemble-based post-processing framework.
result Framework effectively enhances fairness while maintaining predictive accuracy.
Paper introduces data-dependent SSP for private linear and logistic regression.
problem Private linear and logistic regression with better performance.
method Data-dependent sufficient statistic perturbation (SSP) for linear and logistic regression.
result Data-dependent SSP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for linear and logistic regression.
A popular methodology for building binary decision-making classifiers in the presence of imperfect information is to first construct a non-binary "scoring" classifier that is calibrated over all protected groups, and then to post-process this score to obtain a binary decision. We study the feasibility of achieving vari…
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
New debiasing methods for fine-tuned neural networks.
problem Bias in neural networks used for high-stakes decisions.
method Intra-processing methods designed for fine-tuned models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of intra-processing methods across various datasets.
Unified approach adjusts classifiers to meet system-level constraints.
problem Multi-class classification under system-level constraints.
method Post-processing approach using linearly constrained stochastic program and entropic regularization.
result Finite-sample guarantees for risk and constraint satisfaction.
Develops a fair post-processing method for student success predictions.
problem Ensuring fairness in predictive student models for educational applications.
method Uses the MADD metric to improve model fairness while maintaining accuracy.
result Successfully improved fairness of predictive models for student success.
Meta-theorems validate fair regression algorithms under demographic parity constraints.
problem Regression under demographic parity constraints.
method Meta-theorems and post-processing methods.
result Fair minimax optimal regression can be achieved through post-processing.
Project fair estimators while maintaining accuracy.
problem Making estimators fair without sacrificing accuracy.
method Optimal transport tools to find closest fair estimator.
result Efficiently constructs fair estimators with quantified cost.
A new low-dimensional parameterization based on principal component analysis (PCA) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) is developed to represent complex geological models. The CNN-PCA method is inspired by recent developments in computer vision using deep learning. CNN-PCA can be viewed as a generalization of an ex…
Bayesian neural networks improve likelihood-free inference efficiency.
problem Efficient parameter inference from simulation models with uncertainty.
method Bayesian neural networks for summary statistics, adaptive sampling.
result More robust and efficient posterior estimation.
ForestPrune optimizes tree ensemble pruning for compactness and speed.
problem Large tree ensembles in predictive models consume excessive memory and reduce interpretability.
method Developed a specialized optimization algorithm to efficiently prune tree ensembles by depth layers.
result ForestPrune produces compact, high-performing models that outperform existing post-processing methods.
Develops a forward variable selection method for interpretable random forest models.
problem Interpreting high-dimensional non-parametric models like random forests.
method Forward variable selection using CRPS as loss function, with hypothesis testing at each step.
result Method selects a smaller set of variables that optimizes predictive performance.
In this article, we have proposed several approaches for post processing a large ensemble of prediction models or rules. The results from our simulations show that the post processing methods we have considered here are promising. We have used the techniques developed here for estimation of quantitative traits from mar…
Word embeddings learnt from large corpora have been adopted in various applications in natural language processing and served as the general input representations to learning systems. Recently, a series of post-processing methods have been proposed to boost the performance of word embeddings on similarity comparison an…
MRI images reconstructed from sub-sampled Cartesian data using deep learning techniques often show a characteristic banding (sometimes described as streaking), which is particularly strong in low signal-to-noise regions of the reconstructed image. In this work, we propose the use of an adversarial loss that penalizes b…
Paper creates fair synthetic data ensuring equal predictions across sensitive attributes.
problem Ensuring fair predictions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data.
method Equalizing target probability distributions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data generation.
result Synthetic data provides strong fair predictions, equal across all thresholds.