Enhances power of covariance matrix tests for high-dimensional data.
problem Testing large covariance matrices in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a new Fisher's combined probability test for quadratic form and maximum form statistics.
result Boosts power against more general alternatives.
Approximate Bayesian computation is an established and popular method for likelihood-free inference with applications in many disciplines. The effectiveness of the method depends critically on the availability of well performing summary statistics. Summary statistic selection relies heavily on domain knowledge and care…
A textbook on statistical machine learning for astronomy.
problem Uncertainty quantification in astronomical data analysis.
method Bayesian inference and classical statistical methods.
result Unified framework connecting modern and traditional methods.
Discusses new probabilistic morphisms and geometric methods in machine and statistical learning.
problem Addressing challenges in statistical, machine, and manifold learning.
method Introduces category of probabilistic morphisms and geometric methods.
result New insights and applications in various learning fields.
A method uses neural networks to approximate sampling distributions of test statistics.
problem Accurate modeling of p-value functions or cdfs for correct confidence set coverage.
method Uses neural networks to model the cdf of test statistics, approximating sampling distributions.
result Neural network approximations of sampling distributions are effective and simple.
Statistical methods remain relevant for ODE inverse problems, especially with sparse data.
problem The relevance of statistical methods in the era of deep learning for ODE inverse problems.
method Employed physics-informed neural networks (PINN) and manifold-constrained Gaussian process inference (MAGI) to compare statistical and deep learning approaches.
result Statistically principled methods outperform deep learning models in tasks like parameter inference and trajectory reconstruction.
Study uses online bootstrap for RL inference, showing effectiveness.
problem Statistical inference for RL parameters in online settings.
method Online bootstrap method applied to TD and GTD algorithms in RL.
result Method is distributionally consistent for policy evaluation inference.
Active learning method for ABC statistics selection reduces expert work and improves posterior estimates.
problem Handling intractable likelihood functions in models with domain knowledge.
method Active learning method for selecting summary statistics in ABC.
result Better posterior estimates than existing methods, especially with limited simulation budget.
RobPy offers robust statistical methods in Python.
problem Lack of robust statistical methods in Python.
method Built on NumPy, SciPy, and scikit-learn, RobPy includes robust tools for various statistical tasks.
result RobPy enables more users to perform robust data analysis in Python.
Introduces statistical optimal transport for probabilistic lectures.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on introduction.
method Lecture-based introduction to statistical optimal transport.
result Provides an introduction to statistical optimal transport.
Develops an empirical likelihood framework for random forests and ensembles.
problem Quantifying the statistical uncertainty of random forests and ensembles.
method Empirical likelihood framework exploiting the incomplete U-statistic structure of ensemble predictions. result Modified empirical likelihood statistic achieves accurate coverage and practical reliability.
New method for valid and exact statistical inference of multi-dimensional change-points.
problem Statistical inference of change-points in multi-dimensional sequences.
method Proposes a method to guarantee the statistical reliability of both location and components of detected changes.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in genomic abnormality identification and human behavior analysis.
We study the problem of discriminative sub-trajectory mining. Given two groups of trajectories, the goal of this problem is to extract moving patterns in the form of sub-trajectories which are more similar to sub-trajectories of one group and less similar to those of the other. We propose a new method called Statistica…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions in models with unknown or computationally intractable likelihoods. Both the accuracy and computational efficiency of ABC depend on the choice of summary statistic, but outside of special cases where the optimal summary statis…
Nyström KPCA balances computational efficiency and statistical accuracy.
problem Computational burden in large sample situations for kernel methods.
method Theoretical analysis of Nyström approximate kernel principal component analysis (KPCA).
result Nyström approximate KPCA matches statistical performance of non-approximate KPCA while being computationally beneficial.
Unified approach to private statistics from empirical to population data.
problem Divided focus on empirical vs population statistics in private statistics.
method Unified methods for both types of statistics.
result Methods for empirical statistics can be applied to population statistics.
New statistical factors improve portfolio risk estimation.
problem Improving estimation of portfolio risk using new statistical factors.
method Matrix factor models and statistical methods (partial F test, double selection LASSO).
result New statistical factors add explanatory power in asset pricing.
This paper deals with the applications of an optimization method on submanifolds, that is, geometric inequalities can be considered as optimization problems. In this regard, we obtain optimal Casorati inequalities and Chen-Ricci inequality for a statistical submanifold in a statistical warped product manifold of type $…
New methods improve statistical accuracy of complex models without high computational cost.
problem Improving statistical accuracy of complex models without high computational cost.
method Neural posterior and likelihood estimation (NPE and NLE) methods.
result NPE and NLE methods have similar theoretical guarantees to ABC and BSL, but achieve accuracy at a reduced computational cost.
FNNs can be made more interpretable with statistical methods.
problem FNNs lack interpretability and are often used as black-box models.
method Supplement FNNs with statistical inference and covariate-effect visualizations.
result FNNs can be made more like traditional statistical models.
Kulldorff's (1997) seminal paper on spatial scan statistics (SSS) has led to many methods considering different regions of interest, different statistical models, and different approximations while also having numerous applications in epidemiology, environmental monitoring, and homeland security. SSS provides a way to …
Paper bridges statistical inference for DP-SGD, a privacy-preserving machine learning method.
problem Asymptotic statistical inference for Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD).
method Established asymptotic properties of SGD under randomized subsampling, extended to DP-SGD, proposed methods for constructing valid confidence intervals.
result Valid confidence intervals for DP-SGD output achieve nominal coverage rates while maintaining privacy.
In the first half of 2018, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis) carried out a "Proof of Concept Machine Learning" as part of its Digital Agenda. A major component of this was surveys on the use of machine learning methods in official statistics, which were conducted at selected national and internationa…
Statistical downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) allows researchers to study local climate change effects decades into the future. A wide range of statistical models have been applied to downscaling GCMs but recent advances in machine learning have not been explored. In this paper, we compare four fundamental st…
New method finds arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
problem Finding arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
method Formulate as maximizing volatility within a price band, using convex-concave optimization.
result Approximately solves non-convex optimization problem for moving-band arbitrage.
Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the sampling nature of the data. In contrast, recognizing the randomness in the dat…
This paper develops a general framework for analyzing asymptotics of V-statistics. Previous literature on limiting distribution mainly focuses on the cases when n→∞ with fixed kernel size k. Under some regularity conditions, we demonstrate asymptotic normality when k grows with n by utilizing existin…
The authors argue against the classification of forecasting methods as machine learning or statistical.
problem The classification of forecasting methods as machine learning or statistical limits insights into their appropriateness and effectiveness.
method Alternative characteristics of forecasting methods are proposed to draw meaningful conclusions.
result The distinction between machine learning and statistical forecasting methods is not fundamental.
Efficient method for tensor linear form inference with noisy incomplete data.
problem Statistical inference of tensor linear forms with incomplete and noisy observations.
method Initial estimate + debiasing + one-step power iteration.
result Optimal uncertainty quantification and statistical-to-computational gaps examined.
Paper develops error rates for physics-informed learning, comparing it to data-driven methods.
problem Understanding the trade-off between soft penalties and hard constraints in PISL.
method Develops complexity-dependent error rates using the small-ball method.
result Physics-informed estimators have comparable error rates to hard constrained methods, differing only by constants.
In this paper we address the problem of performing statistical inference for large scale data sets i.e., Big Data. The volume and dimensionality of the data may be so high that it cannot be processed or stored in a single computing node. We propose a scalable, statistically robust and computationally efficient bootstra…
The paper extends statistical inference methods for black-box generative models.
problem Understanding and validating black-box generative models without access to their internal data.
method Develops model-level statistical inference tasks using generative model representations.
result Model-level representations are effective for multiple inference tasks.
Paper introduces a method to assess the statistical reliability of changepoints using selective inference and dynamic programming.
problem Assessing the statistical reliability of detected changepoints.
method Selective inference framework combined with dynamic programming for exact p-value computation.
result Proposes a method with high statistical power and decent computational efficiency.
This paper develops dimension-agnostic inference methods for high-dimensional data.
problem Understanding how classical inference methods behave in high-dimensional settings.
method Using variational representations, sample splitting, and self-normalization to create a refined test statistic.
result The resulting statistic has a Gaussian limiting distribution regardless of how dimensionality scales with sample size.
Survey of robust clustering methods for hotspot detection.
problem Detecting false positives in spatial hotspot mapping.
method Statistically rigorous clustering techniques.
result Survey of models and algorithms for robust clustering.
Extreme value theory enhances statistical learning extrapolation for rare events.
problem Challenges in traditional machine learning methods for extreme data.
method Asymptotic theory and statistical tools for tail behavior.
result Effective extrapolation methods for extreme quantiles and anomalies.
Responds to a statistical method for policy learning.
problem Improving policy learning efficiency.
method Optimal retargeting approach.
result Discussion and response to previous work.
We present a novel method for frequentist statistical inference in M-estimation problems, based on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a fixed step size: we demonstrate that the average of such SGD sequences can be used for statistical inference, after proper scaling. An intuitive analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlen…
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
New method uses sufficient statistics to infer causal relationships from observational data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from observational data with hidden variables.
method Information Bottleneck method applied to find functional sufficient statistics.
result New causal rules not obtainable from standard methods, validated on simulated and real data.
Efficiently approximates statistical leverage scores for faster KRR.
problem Accurately estimating statistical leverage scores for fast KRR.
method Analytic formula for statistical leverage scores, leveraging kernel spectral density.
result Linear time approximation with theoretical guarantees, significantly faster than existing methods.
The Ising model replicates financial asset statistical features.
problem Replicating statistical characteristics of financial markets.
method Employed the Ising model and Monte Carlo simulations.
result The Ising model can replicate most financial asset statistical features.
Optimal kernel improves estimation accuracy in modal statistical methods.
problem Estimation accuracy of kernel-based modal statistical methods depends on the kernel used.
method The study theoretically shows an optimal kernel that minimizes asymptotic error criterion.
result An optimal kernel minimizes the error criterion when using an optimal bandwidth.
New method for efficient inference in large datasets.
problem Statistical inference in massive datasets.
method Combines divide-and-conquer method and empirical likelihood.
result Reduces computation burden and demonstrates effectiveness.
The paper reviews recent statistical methods for financial markets, focusing on jumps, volatility, and microstructure noise.
problem Analyzing financial market data with statistical models.
method Review and development of statistical methods for financial markets, including jump tests, rough volatility, and microstructure noise.
result Established a minimax lower bound for volatility recovery and proposed new statistical methods for financial market analysis.
Develops a new method for statistical optimal allocation problems.
problem Statistical optimal allocation problems with constraints.
method Functional differentiability approach and Hadamard differentiability of value functions.
result Validates margin assumption for fast convergence rate of plug-in methods.
New method uses quantum annealing and VAN for better statistical mechanics calculations.
problem Difficulty in computing partition function in statistical mechanics.
method Combines quantum annealing samples with variational autoregressive networks.
result Enhanced accuracy in finite-size Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model.
EFI automates statistical inference for big data.
problem Statistical inference for model parameters based on observations.
method EFI uses stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo and sparse deep neural networks.
result EFI provides higher fidelity in parameter estimation and automates the inference process.