The objective of this paper is to introduce the notion of generalized almost statistical (briefly, GAS) convergence of bounded real sequences, which generalizes the notion of almost convergence as well as statistical convergence of bounded real sequences. As a special kind of Banach limit functional, we also introduce …
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “statistical limits”
GOE statistics emerge from surface moduli space averages.
problem Understanding spectral statistics on hyperbolic surfaces.
method Defined a smooth linear statistic, averaged over moduli space, and analyzed variance.
result GOE statistics are recovered in the large genus and high energy limits.
This paper strengthens the central limit theorem for order statistics using relative entropy.
problem Establishing a stronger mode of convergence for central limit behavior of order statistics.
method Using relative entropy to ensure a stronger mode of convergence for central limit behavior of order statistics.
result An order rate of convergence is established under mild conditions.
Study smooth linear statistics on random covers of hyperbolic surfaces, showing central limit and variance results.
problem Analyzing fluctuations and energy variance of random covers of compact hyperbolic surfaces.
method Examining fluctuations in a small energy window around a fixed energy level, considering the variance of a typical surface, using a double limit where and go to infinity.
result Distribution of fluctuations tends to a Gaussian with variance of GOE/GUE, and energy variance of a typical random -cover is that of GOE/GUE.
Study spectral learning for odeco tensors, addressing initialization bottlenecks.
problem Recovering orthogonally decomposable tensors under noise.
method Investigates perturbation bounds, non-convex optimization, and initialization strategies.
result Initialization is the main bottleneck for efficient algorithms.
Estimating Model Performance on External Samples from Their Limited Statistical Characteristicsstat.ML
Method estimates model performance on external samples from limited statistical characteristics.
problem Limited access to multiple datasets due to privacy and commercial restrictions.
method Search for weights that match external statistics and are closest to uniform, using model performance on weighted internal sample as an estimation.
result Estimated external performance is closer to actual performance than internal performance.
Paper explores statistical and computational limits of estimating low-rank Gaussian mixtures.
problem Estimating low-rank matrix-variate observations with optimal statistical and computational limits.
method Low-rank Gaussian mixture model (LrMM) and minimax lower bounds.
result Minimax optimality of maximum likelihood estimator and spectral aggregation method.
Testing independence is of significant interest in many important areas of large-scale inference. Using extreme-value form statistics to test against sparse alternatives and using quadratic form statistics to test against dense alternatives are two important testing procedures for high-dimensional independence. However…
A High-dimensional Convergence Theorem for U-statistics with Applications to Kernel-based Testingmath.ST
High-dimensional U-statistics show surprising phase transitions, impacting kernel-based tests.
problem Understanding phase transitions in high-dimensional U-statistics.
method Proved a convergence theorem for U-statistics of degree two in high dimensions.
result High-dimensional U-statistics can have non-Gaussian limits with larger variance and asymmetry.
Study on kernel methods in large-scale machine learning problems.
problem Large-scale machine learning with many interacting variables.
method Mean field limit analysis of kernels and their Hilbert spaces.
result Mean field convergence of empirical and infinite-sample solutions.
Polynomial decay of correlations shown for curved surfaces.
problem Analyzing geodesic flows on curved surfaces.
method Proving polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
result Polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
Stochastic gradient descent converges to universal limits in high dimensions.
problem Statistical tasks in high dimensions with specific data projections.
method Stochastic gradient descent applied to mixture distributions, proving universality of limits.
result The ODE limits are universal for mixtures of arbitrary product distributions.
Geometry of hypersurfaces defined by the relation which generalizes classical formula for free energy in terms of microstates is studied. Induced metric, Riemann curvature tensor, Gauss-Kronecker curvature and associated entropy are calculated. Special class of ideal statistical hypersurfaces is analyzed in details. No…
Study the limits of discrete DPPs to continuous DPPs as set size grows.
problem Characterize the behavior of discrete DPPs as they approach continuous DPPs.
method Non-asymptotic characterization of the limit in terms of weak coherency.
result Sufficient conditions for weak coherency are identified.
This paper investigates asymptotic behaviors of gradient descent algorithms (particularly accelerated gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent) in the context of stochastic optimization arising in statistics and machine learning where objective functions are estimated from available data. We show that these alg…
A review of homomorphic encryption and software tools for encrypted statistical machine learningstat.ML
Recent advances in cryptography promise to enable secure statistical computation on encrypted data, whereby a limited set of operations can be carried out without the need to first decrypt. We review these homomorphic encryption schemes in a manner accessible to statisticians and machine learners, focusing on pertinent…
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
problem Uncertainty in predicting macroeconomic variables like prices and returns.
method Defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on forecast accuracy based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Accuracy of forecasts of probabilities of macroeconomic variables doesn't exceed Gaussian approximations.
Statistical Gamesmath.ST
Unified framework for Bayesian and Frequentist statistics.
problem Embedding Bayesian statistics within a broader decision-making framework.
method Game theory and statistical analysis.
result Statistical games unify Bayesian and Frequentist statistics.
Many high dimensional sparse learning problems are formulated as nonconvex optimization. A popular approach to solve these nonconvex optimization problems is through convex relaxations such as linear and semidefinite programming. In this paper, we study the statistical limits of convex relaxations. Particularly, we con…
Paper establishes statistical inference for performative predictions.
problem Dynamic influence of predictions on their targets.
method End-to-end framework for estimation and inference under performativity.
result Established central limit theorem for performative settings.
Efficiently learns Ising model parameters with limited statistics.
problem Learning Ising model parameters with limited sample configurations.
method Examines trade-offs between computation and observation, using Ising model as example.
result Reconstructs model parameters with statistics up to order for width .
Study geodesic paths on flat surfaces, comparing length and singularity counts.
problem Comparing geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
method Apply counting limit laws to infinite graphs and then to flat surfaces.
result Statistical comparison of geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
The study examines how quantum resources enhance the complexity of quantum circuits.
problem Quantum resource enhancement on circuit complexity.
method Utilizing quantum resource theories, the study analyzes statistical complexities of quantum circuits with limited quantum resources.
result Bounds for statistical complexities of quantum circuits are derived and applied to specific cases.
New framework formalizes estimating valid transport maps, revealing their statistical limits.
problem Estimating valid transport maps in generative modeling.
method Formalized a minimax framework for estimating valid transport maps.
result Estimating any valid transport map is as hard as estimating the optimal transport map under standard stability assumptions.
New research limits how well attackers can guess if data points were in a model's training set.
problem Revealing membership of data points in machine learning models.
method Theoretical analysis of statistical limits for membership inference attacks.
result The effectiveness of membership inference attacks is limited by a constant that quantifies data distribution diversity.
Study on statistical inference for nonlinear stochastic approximation with Markovian data.
problem Statistical inference for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian data.
method Established a functional central limit theorem for the partial-sum process of the target parameter estimate, providing asymptotic pivotal statistics for constructing confidence intervals.
result Valid and efficient asymptotic inference method for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian data.
The study proves a central limit theorem for Gaussian holomorphic sections on Kähler manifolds.
problem Understanding statistical properties of zeros of random holomorphic sections.
method Proves a central limit theorem for smooth linear statistics of zero divisors of Gaussian sections in line bundles over Kähler manifolds.
result Derives first-order asymptotics and upper decay estimates for Bergman kernels.
Ice Cream Doesn't Cause Drowning: Benchmarking LLMs Against Statistical Pitfalls in Causal Inferencecs.AI
Benchmark assesses LLMs' causal inference skills, revealing significant limitations.
problem Lack of rigorous evaluation of LLMs' causal inference capabilities.
method CausalPitfalls benchmark with structured challenges and grading rubrics.
result Significant limitations in current LLMs' statistical causal inference.
New framework limits SGD for multi-index models, addressing SQ framework shortcomings.
problem Limitations of SGD for multi-index models beyond SQ framework.
method Developed a new non-SQ framework to study SGD limitations for single-index and multi-index models.
result Applies to broad settings and architectures, including neural networks.
On the Central Limit Theorem for linear eigenvalue statistics on random surfaces of large genusmath.SP
The paper shows Gaussian fluctuations in eigenvalue statistics of random hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Understanding fluctuations in Laplace eigenvalues of random hyperbolic surfaces.
method Analyzing fluctuations of linear statistics of Laplace eigenvalues over moduli space of surfaces of large genus.
result The distribution of linear statistics tends to a Gaussian as the genus of surfaces increases.
Unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression.
problem Challenges in statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting.
method Integrates dropout or parallel training with regularization for CLT in boosting.
result Increasing dropout rate and parallel trees enhances signal recovery and performance.
New method for constructing confidence intervals for time series data.
problem Constructing confidence intervals for statistical functionals from time series data.
method Proposes a general purpose confidence interval procedure based on overlapping batches of time series data.
result Large overlapping batches yield confidence intervals of higher quality than generic methods.
Paper explores limits of high-order clustering with planted structures.
problem Statistical and computational limits of high-order clustering with planted structures.
method Developed methods for detection and recovery of clusters, identified signal-to-noise ratio boundaries.
result Sharp boundaries of signal-to-noise ratio for statistical and computational feasibility.
This work characterizes the fundamental limit of network pruning using statistical dimension and convex geometry.
problem The fundamental limit of network pruning is still lacking, especially for deep neural networks.
method Directly imposing sparsity constraint on the loss function and using statistical dimension in convex geometry.
result Characterizes the sharp phase transition point as the fundamental limit of pruning ratio.
Survey on statistical inference under memory constraints.
problem Effect of memory limitations on statistical inference performance.
method Review of state-of-the-art in several canonical problems.
result Identification of fundamental building blocks and useful techniques.
Recent work in signal propagation theory has shown that dropout limits the depth to which information can propagate through a neural network. In this paper, we investigate the effect of initialisation on training speed and generalisation for ReLU networks within this depth limit. We ask the following research question:…
The paper provides statistical guarantees for sparse deep learning.
problem Understanding the potential and limitations of sparse deep learning.
method Develops statistical guarantees for different types of sparsity in sparse deep learning.
result Statistical guarantees for sparse deep learning with mild dependence on network widths and depths.
This paper analyzes Local SGD for federated learning, achieving both statistical and communication efficiency.
problem Statistical estimation and inference in federated learning with decentralized data.
method Local SGD, a multi-round estimation procedure using intermittent communication.
result Local SGD achieves both statistical efficiency and communication efficiency.
Method infers assortative communities in networks without resolution limit.
problem Finding statistically significant assortative modules in networks.
method Nonparametric Bayesian formulation of the planted partition model.
result Method uncovers an arbitrarily large number of communities with statistical evidence.
Lectures on deep learning properties in infinite and large-width networks.
problem Understanding deep neural networks in extreme width conditions.
method Analysis of random deep neural networks, connections to linear models, kernels, and Gaussian processes, perturbative and non-perturbative treatments.
result Properties and behaviors of deep neural networks in the infinite-width limit and large-width regime.
Market-based asset price probability depends on trade volumes and values, improving forecasts and reliability.
problem Limited accuracy of frequency-based asset price statistical moments.
method Derive market-based variance and 3rd statistical moment from trade values and volumes, accounting for trade volume randomness.
result Market-based statistical moments improve price probability forecasts and reliability.
This paper quantifies uncertainty in Data Shapley using statistical inference.
problem Uncertainty in data valuation due to dynamic data distribution.
method Established relationship with U-statistics and quantified uncertainty using statistical inference.
result Confidence intervals for Data Shapley estimations are provided.
The paper reviews recent statistical methods for financial markets, focusing on jumps, volatility, and microstructure noise.
problem Analyzing financial market data with statistical models.
method Review and development of statistical methods for financial markets, including jump tests, rough volatility, and microstructure noise.
result Established a minimax lower bound for volatility recovery and proposed new statistical methods for financial market analysis.
The paper develops statistical inference for gradient flows in optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification along the entire optimization path.
method Uniform central limit theorem and algorithm-aware covariance estimator.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for target parameter.
The paper explores how market-based returns depend on past trade values.
problem Improving accuracy in forecasting market-based average and volatility of returns.
method Derives the dependence of market-based volatility and higher statistical moments of returns on statistical moments and correlations of current and past trade values.
result Market-based statistical moments can be approximated by a finite number of moments, improving forecast reliability.
The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments. Furthermore, the convergence to the limit distributions can be slow, requiring a huge am…
To model modern large-scale datasets, we need efficient algorithms to infer a set of unknown model parameters from noisy measurements. What are fundamental limits on the accuracy of parameter inference, given finite signal-to-noise ratios, limited measurements, prior information, and computational tractability …
New method uses sufficient statistics to infer causal relationships from observational data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from observational data with hidden variables.
method Information Bottleneck method applied to find functional sufficient statistics.
result New causal rules not obtainable from standard methods, validated on simulated and real data.