The study proves a central limit theorem for Gaussian holomorphic sections on Kähler manifolds.
problem Understanding statistical properties of zeros of random holomorphic sections.
method Proves a central limit theorem for smooth linear statistics of zero divisors of Gaussian sections in line bundles over Kähler manifolds.
result Derives first-order asymptotics and upper decay estimates for Bergman kernels.
This paper strengthens the central limit theorem for order statistics using relative entropy.
problem Establishing a stronger mode of convergence for central limit behavior of order statistics.
method Using relative entropy to ensure a stronger mode of convergence for central limit behavior of order statistics.
result An order O ( 1 / n ) O(1/\sqrt{n}) O ( 1/ n ) rate of convergence is established under mild conditions. Study smooth linear statistics on random covers of hyperbolic surfaces, showing central limit and variance results.
problem Analyzing fluctuations and energy variance of random covers of compact hyperbolic surfaces.
method Examining fluctuations in a small energy window around a fixed energy level, considering the variance of a typical surface, using a double limit where n n n and L L L go to infinity. result Distribution of fluctuations tends to a Gaussian with variance of GOE/GUE, and energy variance of a typical random n n n -cover is that of GOE/GUE. Paper establishes statistical inference for performative predictions.
problem Dynamic influence of predictions on their targets.
method End-to-end framework for estimation and inference under performativity.
result Established central limit theorem for performative settings.
Study on statistical inference for nonlinear stochastic approximation with Markovian data.
problem Statistical inference for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian data.
method Established a functional central limit theorem for the partial-sum process of the target parameter estimate, providing asymptotic pivotal statistics for constructing confidence intervals.
result Valid and efficient asymptotic inference method for nonlinear stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian data.
Chentsov's theorem characterizes the Fisher information metric on statistical models as essentially the only Riemannian metric that is invariant under sufficient statistics. This implies that each statistical model is naturally equipped with a geometry, so Chentsov's theorem explains why many statistical properties can…
This paper investigates asymptotic behaviors of gradient descent algorithms (particularly accelerated gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent) in the context of stochastic optimization arising in statistics and machine learning where objective functions are estimated from available data. We show that these alg…
High-dimensional U-statistics show surprising phase transitions, impacting kernel-based tests.
problem Understanding phase transitions in high-dimensional U-statistics.
method Proved a convergence theorem for U-statistics of degree two in high dimensions.
result High-dimensional U-statistics can have non-Gaussian limits with larger variance and asymmetry.
Polynomial decay of correlations shown for curved surfaces.
problem Analyzing geodesic flows on curved surfaces.
method Proving polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
result Polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
Unified framework for statistical inference in gradient boosting regression.
problem Challenges in statistical inference and uncertainty quantification for gradient boosting.
method Integrates dropout or parallel training with regularization for CLT in boosting.
result Increasing dropout rate and parallel trees enhances signal recovery and performance.
New method for zeroth-order stochastic gradient algorithms provides confidence intervals.
problem Lack of inferential capabilities for zeroth-order stochastic gradient algorithms.
method Established central limit theorem and provided online estimators for asymptotic covariance matrix.
result Asymptotically valid confidence sets for parameter estimation and prediction.
Study shows normal distribution in divisor counts of random sections on complex manifolds.
problem Distribution of divisors on complex manifolds.
method Central limit theorem for smooth linear statistics of Gaussian sections.
result Asymptotic normality of divisor counts.
Asymptotics for equidistribution of circles on hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Equidistribution of circles on hyperbolic surfaces.
method Spectral method and statistical limit theorems.
result Precise asymptotics for the rate of equidistribution of circles.
This paper analyzes Local SGD for federated learning, achieving both statistical and communication efficiency.
problem Statistical estimation and inference in federated learning with decentralized data.
method Local SGD, a multi-round estimation procedure using intermittent communication.
result Local SGD achieves both statistical efficiency and communication efficiency.
Paper examines constant stepsize in LSA for Markovian data inference.
problem Improving statistical inference with constant stepsize in LSA for Markovian data.
method Established CLT, used averaged LSA iterates, applied Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result Constant stepsize leads to better CI coverage, especially with limited data.
Paper proves a Central Limit Theorem for Random Forest Permutation Importance Measure.
problem Lack of theoretical analysis of Random Forest Permutation Importance Measure (RFPIM).
method Formal proof using U-Statistics theory, deviating from conventional Random Forest model.
result Established a Central Limit Theorem for RFPIM.
NAST generalizes scattering transform for non-stationary time series analysis.
problem Analyzing non-stationary time series data.
method Neural activation of scattering transform with various activation functions and high pass filters.
result Central and non-central limit theorems for NAST of Gaussian processes.
High-dimensional SGD limits show surprising dynamics and phase transitions.
problem Understanding SGD in high dimensions and its scaling limits.
method Proving limit theorems for SGD trajectories in high dimensions, choosing summary statistics, initialization, and step-size.
result Critical scaling regime for step-size, new correction term, and complex diffusive limits.
The paper develops statistical inference for gradient flows in optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification along the entire optimization path.
method Uniform central limit theorem and algorithm-aware covariance estimator.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for target parameter.
We prove several fundamental statistical bounds for entropic OT with the squared Euclidean cost between subgaussian probability measures in arbitrary dimension. First, through a new sample complexity result we establish the rate of convergence of entropic OT for empirical measures. Our analysis improves exponentially o…
Stochastic gradient descent in continuous time (SGDCT) provides a computationally efficient method for the statistical learning of continuous-time models, which are widely used in science, engineering, and finance. The SGDCT algorithm follows a (noisy) descent direction along a continuous stream of data. The parameter …
The rectified flow method is analyzed for its statistical properties.
problem Theoretical support for rectified flow methods is lacking.
method Empirical analysis of rectified flow's statistical properties using regression and density estimation.
result Convergence rates for rectified flow estimators are faster than for nonparametric regression and density estimation.
The paper reviews advances in estimating and understanding optimal transport maps.
problem Estimating and understanding optimal transport maps from samples.
method Recent advances in statistical inference for optimal transport maps.
result Developed limit theorems for the optimal transport map using samples.
New method for constructing confidence intervals for time series data.
problem Constructing confidence intervals for statistical functionals from time series data.
method Proposes a general purpose confidence interval procedure based on overlapping batches of time series data.
result Large overlapping batches yield confidence intervals of higher quality than generic methods.
Study on kernel methods in large-scale machine learning problems.
problem Large-scale machine learning with many interacting variables.
method Mean field limit analysis of kernels and their Hilbert spaces.
result Mean field convergence of empirical and infinite-sample solutions.
The paper shows Gaussian fluctuations in eigenvalue statistics of random hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Understanding fluctuations in Laplace eigenvalues of random hyperbolic surfaces.
method Analyzing fluctuations of linear statistics of Laplace eigenvalues over moduli space of surfaces of large genus.
result The distribution of linear statistics tends to a Gaussian as the genus of surfaces increases.
The paper proposes a method to infer Q-values online with Q-Learning.
problem High variance and instability in reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Adapting FCLT for a modified Q-learning approach and constructing confidence intervals.
result The proposed method provides more stable and reliable inference of Q-values.
Develops CLTs for Markov chain transition probabilities and policies.
problem Estimating transition probabilities and policies in controlled Markov chains.
method Non-parametric estimator for transition matrices; CLTs for value, Q-, and advantage functions; goodness-of-fit tests.
result Asymptotic normality of estimators under specific logging policies.
The CLT fails for LLM evaluations with small data, leading to underestimation of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in LLM evaluations with small datasets.
method Alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification.
result CLT-based methods underestimate uncertainty in small data settings.
The paper studies empirical processes from nearest neighbors in regression.
problem Estimating conditional cumulative distribution functions and local linear regression.
method Uniform central limit theorem and non-asymptotic bound under local bracketing entropy and uniform entropy numbers.
result Gaussian limit of empirical process with simple covariance.
New neural scaling law found for simple quadratic function.
problem Neural scaling laws and their predictions for model performance.
method Analysis of neural networks, lottery ticket ensembling, statistical interpretation.
result Found a new scaling law ( α = 1 α=1 α = 1 ) for a simple quadratic function, contradicting previous theories. The paper studies random covers of torus knot complements and their statistical properties.
problem Understanding the statistical behavior of finite covers of torus knot complements.
method Asymptotic subgroup growth analysis and Benjamini-Schramm limit theorems.
result Determination of the linear growth rate of Betti numbers for random covers of torus knot complements.
Study wSAA for contextual decisions, improving uncertainty quantification under computational constraints.
problem Uncertainty quantification limitations in wSAA for contextual stochastic optimization.
method Establish central limit theorems and asymptotic-normality-based confidence intervals for optimal costs.
result Over-optimizing can mitigate misspecification and preserve asymptotic normality, albeit at a slower convergence rate.
New method for online inference using SGD with random scaling.
problem Efficient online inference for SGD parameters.
method Asymptotic pivotal statistics via random scaling.
result Robust and efficient online inference without resampling.
This paper introduces sample-averaged Q-learning for better RL performance.
problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms by managing uncertainty.
method Integrates statistical inference into Q-learning through sample averaging and functional central limit theorem.
result Establishes a unified theoretical foundation for sample-averaged Q-learning.
Study Q-learning with averaging for reinforcement learning, proving efficient inference and error bounds.
problem Efficient inference and error bounds for Q-learning with averaging.
method Functional central limit theorem and asymptotic linear estimator for optimal Q-value function.
result Standardized partial-sum process converges weakly to a rescaled Brownian motion, matching instance-dependent lower bound for error.
Method upgrades limit theorems to mixing limit theorems for dynamical systems.
problem Improving limit theorems for dynamical systems.
method General method for upgrading limit theorems to mixing limit theorems.
result Mixing limit theorems for specific subbundles of the Kontsevich-Zorich cocycle.
LinUCB algorithm handles adaptive sampling biases for linear bandits.
problem Adaptive sampling introduces biases in statistical inference.
method LinUCB algorithm with stability property for linear bandits.
result LinUCB achieves asymptotic normality with Wald-type confidence sets.
The paper analyzes Kernel Density Estimation in high dimensions with varying data and dimensionality.
problem High-dimensional Kernel Density Estimation with growing data and dimensionality.
method Examines the behavior of Kernel Density Estimators in the regime where both data points and dimensionality grow with a fixed ratio.
result Three distinct statistical regimes are identified for Kernel-based density estimates, each with different statistical properties.
The paper studies eigenvalues of graph Laplacians on data clouds and proves central limit theorems.
problem Asymptotic fluctuations of eigenvalues of graph Laplacians on data clouds.
method Analysis of graph Laplacian operator, asymptotic fluctuations, central limit theorems.
result Central limit theorems for eigenvalues of graph Laplacians are proven.
The paper derives statistics of multi-factor functions from their Fourier transforms.
problem Deriving statistics of multi-factor functions from Fourier transforms.
method Developed an m-Coefficient/Index Annihilation Theorem to analyze the moments of a function from its Fourier transform.
result The mth moment of a function becomes a series of terms, each with precisely m Fourier coefficients, and the indices sum to zero.
Develops thermodynamic formalism for quasimorphisms on negatively curved spaces.
problem Analyzing quasimorphisms on negatively curved spaces.
method Thermodynamic formalism framework, Banach isomorphism, weak Livšic cohomology.
result Establishes Central Limit Theorem and invariance principle for unbounded quasimorphisms.
This paper proves a central limit theorem for differential privacy in high dimensions.
problem Understanding optimal noise distributions for privacy-accuracy trade-offs in high-dimensional settings.
method Developed a central limit theorem approach to analyze differential privacy mechanisms.
result Gaussian mechanisms achieve the optimal privacy-accuracy trade-off in high dimensions.
The Bonnet theorem is proven for statistical manifolds.
problem Locally embeddable statistical manifolds in flat spaces.
method Using statistical embedding and the Gauss--Codazzi--Ricci equations.
result Statistical manifolds with specific tensor properties are locally embeddable to flat statistical manifolds.
The paper proves formulas and theorems for statistical de Rham Hodge operators on manifolds with boundary.
problem Formulating Lichnerowicz type formulas and Kastler-Kalau-Walze theorems for statistical de Rham Hodge operators.
method Developed Lichnerowicz type formulas and proved Kastler-Kalau-Walze type theorems for statistical de Rham Hodge operators on compact manifolds with boundary.
result Proved Lichnerowicz type formulas and Kastler-Kalau-Walze type theorems for statistical de Rham Hodge operators on compact manifolds with boundary.
New flexible confidence sequences for robust statistical inference.
problem Creating robust statistical inference methods that work under mild assumptions.
method Proposed a new class of asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences.
result Sharp asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences achieved under mild assumptions.
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…
Paper studies matching of samples from two distributions with a Gibbs probability weight.
problem Matching two independent i.i.d. samples from two distributions with a weighted cost.
method Uses chaos decomposition of polynomial functions of empirical distributions to derive asymptotics.
result Convergence of resulting random joint distribution to Schrödinger problem solution as N→∞.