Unified framework for singular statistical models using observable charts.
problem Non-identifiability and breakdown of classical asymptotic theory in singular models.
method Invariant framework based on observable charts to define local coordinate systems in model space.
result Observable order provides a lower bound on KL divergence vanishing rate in singular models.
Neural networks can learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, requiring quadratic samples.
problem Learning from higher-order cumulants in high-dimensional data.
method Spiked cumulant model, polynomial time algorithms, neural networks, random features.
result Neural networks require quadratic samples to learn from higher-order cumulants efficiently, while random features require more samples.
Proposes a more robust rating scale for banks.
problem Inconsistent rating scale validation leading to higher capital requirements.
method Develops a new rating scale that is statistically distinguishable and robust.
result Reduces the calibration probability of default, saving capital requirements.
New criteria distinguish cause from effect in data, overcoming statistical limitations.
problem Determining causal direction from statistical dependence alone.
method Intuitive criteria based on simplicity of prediction, tested on synthetic data.
result Criteria accurately distinguish cause from effect in various scenarios.
Study benchmarks TSC algorithms in distinguishing diffusions using the likelihood ratio test.
problem Benchmarking optimality of TSC algorithms in distinguishing diffusion processes.
method Proposes to benchmark TSC algorithms using the likelihood ratio test (LRT).
result LRT benchmarks are computationally efficient and can be applied to various time series types.
This paper tackles sandbagging in AI safety evaluations.
problem AI agents may hide dangerous capabilities to avoid being deactivated.
method Developed a simple model of strategic deception in sequential decision-making tasks.
result Demonstrated that optimal rational agents exhibit sandbagging behavior.
Neural networks can learn relationships that traditional models cannot.
problem Identifying factors that differentiate neural networks from traditional models.
method Proving non-identifiability of neural networks compared to smooth parametric models.
result Neural networks can learn nontrivial relationships that traditional models cannot.
Deep-learning method improves hypothesis testing for independence.
problem Improving hypothesis testing for independence using deep learning.
method Proposes deep-testing, a novel procedure that uses a deep neural network to distinguish between data generated under and outside a given statistical model.
result Deep-testing achieves the highest overall power against nineteen competing methods across various dependence structures.
The paper sets thresholds for testing correlation in hypergraphs, distinguishing between independent and correlated states.
problem Testing correlation between two hypergraphs under different models.
method Derives sharp information-theoretic thresholds for distinguishing between null and alternative hypotheses.
result The testing threshold decreases as the hypergraph's uniformity (m) increases, making correlation testing easier for higher uniformity.
Modern machine learning techniques can be used to construct powerful models for difficult collider physics problems. In many applications, however, these models are trained on imperfect simulations due to a lack of truth-level information in the data, which risks the model learning artifacts of the simulation. In this …
New method distinguishes feature relevance in non-linear contexts.
problem Finding relevant features with preserved redundancies.
method Random forest models and statistical methods.
result Distinguishes strong from weak feature relevance in non-linear problems.
WaveCycleGAN has recently been proposed to bridge the gap between natural and synthesized speech waveforms in statistical parametric speech synthesis and provides fast inference with a moving average model rather than an autoregressive model and high-quality speech synthesis with the adversarial training. However, the …
The study improves the perceptron's storage capacity by optimizing variable selection.
problem Distinguishing genuine structure from random correlations in high-dimensional data.
method Replica method from statistical mechanics for optimal variable selection.
result Optimal variable selection can surpass the Cover--Gardner bound for pattern classification.
The paper studies estimation rates for MoE models with a new prompt.
problem Estimating parameters in a softmax-contaminated MoE model.
method Analytic notion of distinguishability, minimax optimal estimation rates.
result Estimation rates are minimax optimal under distinguishability, but slower otherwise.
Paper distinguishes causal structures under latent confounding and selection bias.
problem Distinguishing causal relationships when latent variables and selection bias are present.
method Formulated selected-marginalized directed graphs (smDGs) to distinguish causal structures.
result Two causal structures are indistinguishable if they have the same selected-marginalized directed graph.
Study shows topological features improve time series classification.
problem Classifying stochastic processes with varying noise and sampling.
method Topological data analysis features compared to statistical and raw features.
result Topological features lead to better classification performance.
We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are challenged to distinguish actual financial market returns from random temporal permut…
Catastrophic events, though rare, do occur and when they occur, they have devastating effects. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to understand the complexity of the underlying dynamics and signatures of catastrophic events, such as market crashes. For deeper understanding, we choose the US and Japanese markets fro…
SciSports is a Dutch startup company specializing in football analytics. This paper describes a joint research effort with SciSports, during the Study Group Mathematics with Industry 2018 at Eindhoven, the Netherlands. The main challenge that we addressed was to automatically process empirical football players' traject…
Causal KL improves on existing metrics for evaluating causal models.
problem Insufficient discrimination between causal models using edit-distance and KL divergence.
method Introducing Causal KL, an augmented KL divergence that considers causal relationships.
result Causal KL variants effectively distinguish between observationally equivalent models.
Paper proposes a statistical model for detecting mu-suppression in EEG signals.
problem Detecting mu-suppression in motor imagery EEG signals.
method Proposes a statistical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and a linear classifier.
result Preliminary results show good classification accuracy in detecting mu-suppression and distinguishing EEG events.
Improved language models by incorporating statistical discriminators.
problem Distinguishing model-generated text from real text reliably.
method Energy-Based Model framework to incorporate discriminators.
result Improves language model performance in perplexity and human evaluation.
Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big Data intro…
New statistical theory explains contrastive learning effectiveness.
problem Understanding why contrastive learning works well for representation extraction.
method Developed a new theoretical framework based on approximate sufficient statistics.
result Near-sufficient encoders derived from contrastive learning can be adapted for downstream tasks.
Method identifies causal drivers from background features.
problem Distinguishing causal influence from hidden confounding.
method Stability of regression coefficients measured by statistic V.
result V converges to zero if and only if no causal drivers exist.
This paper explores what causal structures can be distinguished by observational and interventional probing schemes.
problem Identifying causal structures with latent variables using observational and interventional data.
method Investigates the power of different probing schemes (observation vs. intervention) to distinguish causal structures.
result Two causal structures are indistinguishable if they share the same mDAG structure.
The study introduces backward baselines to distinguish past prediction from future prediction in machine learning models.
problem Differentiating between past and future prediction in machine learning models.
method Theoretical, empirical, and normative arguments support a family of simple and efficient statistical tests called backward baselines.
result The study provides a meaningful backward baseline for auditing black-box prediction systems.
We present a machine learning model for the analysis of randomly generated discrete signals, modeled as the points of an inhomogeneous, compound Poisson point process. Like the wavelet scattering transform introduced by Mallat, our construction is naturally invariant to translations and reflections, but it decouples th…
Algorithm distinguishes Gaussian mixtures from pure Gaussians in quasi-polynomial time.
problem Distinguishing mixtures of Gaussian components from pure Gaussians, especially when components are well-separated.
method Sum-of-Squares method, quasi-polynomial time algorithm, bipartitioning sample to separate components.
result Algorithm can reliably distinguish between mixtures and pure Gaussians in quasi-polynomial time.
We propose a method to optimize the representation and distinguishability of samples from two probability distributions, by maximizing the estimated power of a statistical test based on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). This optimized MMD is applied to the setting of unsupervised learning by generative adversarial ne…
Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.
problem Challenges in ranking items with limited and noisy comparisons.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning partial rankings.
result Finds partial rankings that distinguish meaningful differences only when data supports it.
Cheap permutation tests speed up distribution testing without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Efficiently testing distribution differences and independence.
method Group datapoints into bins and permute only these bins, using stored sufficient statistics.
result Cheap permutation tests maintain the accuracy and optimality of standard tests but are significantly faster.
All parabolic geometries, i.e. Cartan geometries with homogeneous model a real generalized flag manifold, admit highly interesting classes of distinguished curves. The geodesics of a projective class of connections on a manifold, conformal circles on conformal Riemannian manifolds, and Chern--Moser chains on CR--manifo…
The paper introduces a new kernel-based Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) statistic for measuring the distance between two distributions given finitely-many multivariate samples. When the distributions are locally low-dimensional, the proposed test can be made more powerful to distinguish certain alternatives by incorpora…
Proposes QGC to distinguish between lower and upper tail connectivity in financial networks.
problem Identifying systemically important firms using financial data.
method Quantile Granger Causality (QGC) using Lasso penalized quantile regressions.
result QGC networks detect systemic risk more accurately than mean-based networks.
We propose a method to infer causal structures containing both discrete and continuous variables. The idea is to select causal hypotheses for which the conditional density of every variable, given its causes, becomes smooth. We define a family of smooth densities and conditional densities by second order exponential mo…
AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.
problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.
Several statistical and machine learning methods are proposed to estimate the type and intensity of physical load and accumulated fatigue . They are based on the statistical analysis of accumulated and moving window data subsets with construction of a kurtosis-skewness diagram. This approach was applied to the data gat…
4-Legendrian permutation racks can't distinguish knots but recover classical invariants.
problem Distinguishing Legendrian knots using permutation racks.
method Study of 4-Legendrian racks and their effectiveness.
result 4-Legendrian permutation racks cannot distinguish knots but recover classical invariants.
Study on distinguishing mutant knots using specific representations.
problem Distinguishing mutant knots using colored HOMFLY-PT polynomials.
method Calculating polynomials and differences for mutant knot polynomials in specific representations.
result Properties of mutant knot polynomials in representations [3,1] and [4,2] were studied.
Proposes practical kernel tests for f-divergences with theoretical guarantees.
problem Two-sample testing and machine unlearning evaluation.
method Regularized f-divergence kernel tests, adaptive to hyperparameters. result Different f-divergences highlight localized differences. Fisher width is a geometric measure of complexity on statistical manifolds.
problem Complexity measures on statistical manifolds
method Introducing Fisher width as a Fisher-geometric analogue of Gaussian width
result Fisher width retains key structural features of Gaussian width while capturing anisotropic geometric effects
Proves cosets of certain subgroups in hyperbolic 3-manifold groups are conjugacy distinguished.
problem Characterizing conjugacy distinguished cosets in hyperbolic 3-manifold groups.
method Analyzes conjugacy distinguished cosets of specific subgroups in hyperbolic 3-manifold groups.
result Cosets of loxodromic subgroups are conjugacy distinguished from maximal parabolic subgroups.
This work analyzes tree-based methods from a ranking perspective, providing insights and new statistics.
problem Understanding the effectiveness of tree-based methods in finite-sample settings, especially symbolic feature selection.
method Local ranking perspective, finite-sample analysis, oracle bounds, posterior contraction results, concordant divergence statistics.
result New insights and statistics for evaluating symbolic feature mappings.
Differential privacy is a de facto standard in data privacy, with applications in the public and private sectors. A way to explain differential privacy, which is particularly appealing to statistician and social scientists is by means of its statistical hypothesis testing interpretation. Informally, one cannot effectiv…
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have emerged as a rich source of genetic clues into disease biology, and they have revealed strong genetic correlations among many diseases and traits. Some of these genetic correlations may reflect causal relationships. We developed a method to quantify causal relationships betwe…
We discuss positivity properties of `distinguished propagators', i.e. distinguished inverses of operators that frequently occur in scattering theory and wave propagation. We relate this to the work of Duistermaat and Hörmander on distinguished parametrices (approximate inverses), which has played a major role in quantu…
Enhanced bikei modules distinguish unoriented and non-orientable surface-links.
problem Distinguishing unoriented and non-orientable surface-links.
method Extending biquandle module invariants to unoriented surface-links using bikei modules.
result Enhanced bikei modules are more effective at distinguishing non-orientable surface-links than bikei homset cardinality alone.