Identifying statistical dependence between the features and the label is a fundamental problem in supervised learning. This paper presents a framework for estimating dependence between numerical features and a categorical label using generalized Gini distance, an energy distance in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RK…
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48 results for “statistical dependency”
Paper introduces data-dependent SSP for private linear and logistic regression.
problem Private linear and logistic regression with better performance.
method Data-dependent sufficient statistic perturbation (SSP) for linear and logistic regression.
result Data-dependent SSP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for linear and logistic regression.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
problem Serial dependence in financial time series complicates tail risk assessment.
method The approach involves unconditional and conditional quantile forecasting.
result Serial dependence impacts multivariate tail dependence.
Estimates binary labels from dependent data using Markov Random Fields.
problem Statistical estimation from dependent data across spatial, temporal, and social domains.
method Modeling dependencies as Markov Random Fields and providing efficient estimation algorithms.
result Statistically efficient estimation rates for Ising models from a single sample.
We analyze the statistical dependency structure of the S&P 500 constituents in the 4-year period from 2007 to 2010 using intraday data from the New York Stock Exchange's TAQ database. With a copula-based approach, we find that the statistical dependencies are very strong in the tails of the marginal distributions. This…
Improves normalizing flows by incorporating data dependencies.
problem Current normalizing flow learning assumes independent data, leading to errors.
method Proposes a likelihood objective with dependencies and efficient learning algorithm.
result Improves density estimation and data generation on real-world data.
Study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown dependence using group-invariance.
problem Aggregating statistical evidence under unknown and complex dependence structures.
method Develops a framework using group-invariance and permutation-based constructions to aggregate evidence across transformed datasets.
result Shows uniform improvement in critical values for single-batch aggregation over deterministic calibrations, adapting to unknown dependence structures.
We describe a novel non-parametric statistical hypothesis test of relative dependence between a source variable and two candidate target variables. Such a test enables us to determine whether one source variable is significantly more dependent on a first target variable or a second. Dependence is measured via the Hilbe…
Covariate-dependent Graphical Model Estimation via Neural Networks with Statistical Guaranteesstat.ML
Neural network method estimates covariate-dependent graphical models with statistical guarantees.
problem Estimating graph structure from covariate-dependent data.
method Neural network approach that allows flexible functional dependency on covariates.
result Theoretical PAC guarantees for the method's performance.
Paper introduces a new measure of conditional dependence avoiding matrix inversions.
problem Measuring conditional dependence between two phenomena influenced by a confounder.
method Uses U-statistics pruning to avoid matrix inversions and re-interpret independence.
result Proposes a novel measure of conditional dependence that avoids matrix inversions.
This work improves independence tests for high-dimensional data.
problem Detecting subtle dependencies between high-dimensional random variables with complex distributions.
method Develops two approaches to learn powerful independence tests using variational mutual information and HSIC.
result Optimized HSIC tests generally outperform other approaches on detecting structured dependence.
Study problem-dependent rates in statistical learning theory, achieving optimal generalization error bounds.
problem Generalization error in statistical learning theory.
method Uniform localized convergence framework.
result Optimal generalization error bounds for various learning problems.
MIC consistently estimates dependence in large datasets.
problem Estimating dependence between variable pairs in large datasets.
method Proving consistency of MIC as an estimator.
result MIC is a consistent estimator of population statistic MIC*.
Overview of high-dimensional time series regression methods.
problem Estimation and inference with high-dimensional time series data.
method Limit theory for high-dimensional dependent data, asymptotic theory for time series regression, statistical learning methods.
result Main limit theory results and asymptotic theory for high-dimensional time series regression.
This paper analyzes RMR under Markov-dependent samples, improving understanding of its generalization error.
problem Understanding the generalization error of RMR in Markov-dependent settings.
method Established the upper bound for RMR estimator under Markov-dependent samples, providing a learning rate.
result Markov dependence affects the generalization error, reducing it by a multiplicative factor of the spectral gap.
InfoAtlas speeds up MI estimation for real-time data analysis.
problem Efficiently measuring statistical dependency between high-dimensional datasets.
method Directly infers mutual information in a single forward pass using a pretrained model.
result Matches state-of-the-art accuracy with 100x speedup.
The statistical complexity of quantum circuits is studied using Rademacher complexity.
problem Measuring the richness of quantum hypothesis spaces.
method Applying Rademacher complexity to quantum circuits, investigating dependencies on resources, depth, width, and input/output registers.
result Bounds on the capacity of quantum neural networks constrained by circuit depth, width, and resource measures.
The paper explores how market-based returns depend on past trade values.
problem Improving accuracy in forecasting market-based average and volatility of returns.
method Derives the dependence of market-based volatility and higher statistical moments of returns on statistical moments and correlations of current and past trade values.
result Market-based statistical moments can be approximated by a finite number of moments, improving forecast reliability.
New criteria distinguish cause from effect in data, overcoming statistical limitations.
problem Determining causal direction from statistical dependence alone.
method Intuitive criteria based on simplicity of prediction, tested on synthetic data.
result Criteria accurately distinguish cause from effect in various scenarios.
BET on Independencemath.ST
We study the problem of nonparametric dependence detection. Many existing methods may suffer severe power loss due to non-uniform consistency, which we illustrate with a paradox. To avoid such power loss, we approach the nonparametric test of independence through the new framework of binary expansion statistics (BEStat…
Signature-Based Optimal Execution for Statistical Arbitrage with Path-Dependent Trading Signalsq-fin.TR
Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.
problem Optimal execution in statistical arbitrage strategies with dynamic predictive signals.
method Signature-based framework modeling alpha and trading speed as linear functionals of truncated signature of market path.
result Fitted policy achieves higher return on turnover compared to a z-score benchmark.
Two statistical tasks are shown to have equivalent sample complexity.
problem Determining if a function depends on only a few variables and identifying those variables.
method Proved statistical equivalence of feature selection and junta testing through sample complexity analysis.
result Brute-force algorithm is sample-optimal for both tasks with optimal sample size.
Market-based asset price probability depends on trade volumes and values, improving forecasts and reliability.
problem Limited accuracy of frequency-based asset price statistical moments.
method Derive market-based variance and 3rd statistical moment from trade values and volumes, accounting for trade volume randomness.
result Market-based statistical moments improve price probability forecasts and reliability.
A new framework learns system design using neural features in function space.
problem Learning system design with neural feature extractors.
method Introduces feature geometry in function space, nesting technique for optimal feature approximation.
result Optimal features found from data samples using off-the-shelf architectures and optimizers.
The relationship between statistical dependency and causality lies at the heart of all statistical approaches to causal inference. Recent results in the ChaLearn cause-effect pair challenge have shown that causal directionality can be inferred with good accuracy also in Markov indistinguishable configurations thanks to…
Measures dependence between two systems using Bayesian model comparison.
problem Quantifying dependence between two systems in a dataset.
method Bayesian model comparison of independence and dependence models.
result Dependence measure quantifies evidence for dependence in data.
A new nonparametric test measures dependence between variables using decision trees.
problem Measuring statistical dependence between two variables robustly and efficiently.
method An ensemble of decision trees discriminates between observed and permuted samples without generating the latter.
result The method effectively detects complex relationships from noisy data.
Characterizes symmetric Bernoulli distributions with minimal convex sums.
problem Understanding minimal dependence among Bernoulli random vectors.
method Geometric and algebraic representations of multivariate symmetric Bernoulli distributions.
result Characterizes extremal negative dependence and builds minimal dependence copulas.
The paper sets limits on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
problem Uncertainty in predicting macroeconomic variables like prices and returns.
method Defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on forecast accuracy based on statistical moments and trade volumes.
result Accuracy of forecasts of probabilities of macroeconomic variables doesn't exceed Gaussian approximations.
Statistical Inference for Matching Decisions via Matrix Completion under Dependent Missingnessstat.ME
The paper addresses statistical inference in matching markets with dependent missingness.
problem Statistical inference for two-sided matching markets with matching-induced dependence.
method Non-convex algorithm based on Grassmannian gradient descent, debiasing and projection framework.
result Near-optimal entrywise convergence rates for various matching mechanisms.
Study compares forecasting methods for logistics time series.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy in logistics.
method Compared statistical and machine learning methods on simulated time series.
result Statistical methods outperformed machine learning in one-step forecasts.
New method improves combinatorial optimization by capturing dependencies among solution variables.
problem Performance limitations in solving combinatorial optimization problems using independent solution variables.
method Subgraph tokenization and variational annealing to capture dependencies and improve learning efficiency.
result Empirical evidence shows superior performance of autoregressive methods with tokenization and annealed entropy regularization.
Stochastic Trace Optimization of Parameter Dependent Matrices Based on Statistical Learning Theorystat.ML
Estimates matrix trace optimization with statistical learning theory.
problem Optimizing trace of parameter-dependent matrices.
method Monte Carlo estimator with bounds derived from epsilon nets and generic chaining.
result Predicts small sampling amount for matrices with small off-diagonal mass.
New method for scalable inference in large-scale regression models with complex error structures.
problem Challenges in statistical inference for large-scale regression models with dependent errors.
method Generalized Method of Wavelet Moments with Exogenous variables (GMWMX).
result Statistical validity and scalability of GMWMX for linear models with complex error structures.
Proposes statistical inference for dependency knowledge graphs from EHR data.
problem Statistical uncertainty in linking entities in EHR data.
method Dynamic log-linear topic model with singular value decomposition.
result Established asymptotic normality for sparse graph edge recovery.
Study feature representations induced by dependence between variables.
problem Learning feature representations from dependent random variables.
method Characterized sufficient and necessary conditions for dependence-induced representations, and provided a family of loss functions.
result Features learned from the family of loss functions can be expressed as the composition of a loss-dependent function and the maximal correlation function.
Testing two potentially multivariate variables for statistical dependence on the basis finite samples is a fundamental statistical challenge. Here we explore a family of tests that adapt to the complexity of the relationship between the variables, promising robust power across scenarios. Building on the distance correl…
Introduces a new geometric method for optimal experimental design.
problem Restrictive invariance properties of traditional OED approaches based on probability densities.
method Mutual transport dependence (MTD) using optimal transport theory.
result Demonstrates high-quality designs and flexibility compared to standard methods.
New method uses Winsorized mean estimators for privacy-preserving statistics on dependent data.
problem Privacy-preserving statistics on dependent data with sensitive information.
method Adapting noisy Winsorized mean estimators to handle dependence via log-Sobolev inequalities.
result Asymptotic and finite sample guarantees for item-level and user-level mean estimation similar to \iid{} settings.
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…
We proposed a new statistical dependency measure called Copula Dependency Coefficient(CDC) for two sets of variables based on copula. It is robust to outliers, easy to implement, powerful and appropriate to high-dimensional variables. These properties are important in many applications. Experimental results show that C…
The paper examines how market trade values and volumes affect price autocorrelation.
problem Understanding the impact of market trade values and volumes on price autocorrelation.
method Derives the dependence of price statistical moments and volatility on trade values and volumes, and assesses statistical moments and correlations by conventional frequency-based probabilities.
result Highlights the impact of market trade randomness on price statistical moments and autocorrelation.
Statistical mixing and aggregation in Feller diffusioncond-mat.stat-mech
We consider Feller mean-reverting square-root diffusion, which has been applied to model a wide variety of processes with linearly state-dependent diffusion, such as stochastic volatility and interest rates in finance, and neuronal and populations dynamics in natural sciences. We focus on the statistical mixing (or sup…
SGD performs optimally on dependent data, achieving both estimation and regret.
problem Performance of SGD on temporally dependent data.
method Stochastic gradient descent with martingale-type and sequential dependence.
result SGD achieves optimal estimation and regret under various dependence structures.
Maximizes image representation dependence for self-supervised learning.
problem Learning meaningful image representations from unlabeled data.
method Maximizes Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) between image transformations and identity.
result Matches state-of-the-art performance on ImageNet and other vision tasks.
Graphical lasso models ASR utterance dependencies for consistent WER estimation.
problem Modeling dependent structure among ASR utterances for accurate significance analysis.
method Graphical lasso for dependency modeling, followed by blockwise bootstrap resampling.
result Statistically consistent variance estimator of WER under mild conditions.
We present a novel distribution-free approach, the data-driven threshold machine (DTM), for a fundamental problem at the core of many learning tasks: choose a threshold for a given pre-specified level that bounds the tail probability of the maximum of a (possibly dependent but stationary) random sequence. We do not ass…
New method uses SLL to create masks for PX in noisy optimization problems.
problem Effective optimization in noisy problems with hidden variable dependencies.
method Statistical Linkage Learning (SLL) for decomposition and mask construction.
result Proposed method maintains effectiveness in noisy conditions and outperforms state-of-the-art.