Research aims to bridge statistical learning to causal models in AI.
problem Challenges in machine learning and AI related to causality.
method Transition from statistical learning to causal models.
result Progress in AI may require advances in causal modeling.
AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.
problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.
Study interpolating estimators for causal learning from observational data.
problem Learning causal models from observational data in complex model classes.
method Investigate min-norm interpolators and ridge-regularized regressors in a linearly confounded model.
result Interpolators cannot be optimal for causal learning under the principle of independent causal mechanisms, requiring stronger regularization.
Study on forecasting methods and their causal implications.
problem Understanding the difference between statistical and causal risks in forecasting models.
method Introduce causal learning theory for forecasting, obtain uniform convergence bounds for VAR models.
result First theoretical guarantees for causal generalization in time-series forecasting.
Benchmark assesses LLMs' causal inference skills, revealing significant limitations.
problem Lack of rigorous evaluation of LLMs' causal inference capabilities.
method CausalPitfalls benchmark with structured challenges and grading rubrics.
result Significant limitations in current LLMs' statistical causal inference.
Statistical tests for fairness in admissions data reveal hidden patterns.
problem Simpson's paradox in admissions data hides true gender bias.
method Introduces a new statistical test based on Pearl's instrumental-variable inequalities.
result Statistical tests for fairness coincide with causal notions for the Berkeley admissions case.
New method uses sufficient statistics to infer causal relationships from observational data.
problem Inferring causal relationships from observational data with hidden variables.
method Information Bottleneck method applied to find functional sufficient statistics.
result New causal rules not obtainable from standard methods, validated on simulated and real data.
TSCD is an algorithm for causal discovery using second-order statistics.
problem Causal discovery
method Tensor-based Second-order Causal Discovery (TSCD)
result Identifiable causal order and parameters from logarithmic number of interventions
CRL uses causality to build interpretable AI models from complex data.
problem Interpreting deep neural networks' implicit representations.
method Causal representation learning (CRL) synthesizing latent variable models, causal graphical models, and nonparametric statistics.
result CRL can improve interpretability of generative AI models.
The relationship between statistical dependency and causality lies at the heart of all statistical approaches to causal inference. Recent results in the ChaLearn cause-effect pair challenge have shown that causal directionality can be inferred with good accuracy also in Markov indistinguishable configurations thanks to…
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
problem Inefficiencies and statistical significance issues in asymmetric causality tests.
method Improved asymmetric causality tests via partial cumulative sums for positive and negative components, explicitly testing differences between causal parameters.
result Efficiently tested hypotheses on asymmetric causal interaction between financial markets.
Method identifies causal drivers from background features.
problem Distinguishing causal influence from hidden confounding.
method Stability of regression coefficients measured by statistic V.
result V converges to zero if and only if no causal drivers exist.
Proposes a method to evaluate generalizability in causal inference models.
problem Lack of formal procedures to statistically evaluate generalizability in causal inference.
method Frugal parameterization to simulate from causal benchmarks, using mean and distributional regression methods.
result Ensures more realistic evaluations of causal inference models, avoiding over-reliance on conventional metrics.
Responds to critiques on tests for causal parameter confidence intervals.
problem Testing nominal confidence interval coverage for causal parameters estimated by machine learning.
method Rejoinder to critiques on nearly assumption-free tests.
result Clarifies and supports the original research's approach.
Causal discovery predicts unobserved joint statistics from observed data.
problem Inferring properties of unobserved joint distributions from observed data.
method Infer causal models from observed data to predict statistical properties of unobserved sets.
result Sparse causal graphs can be more useful than dense ones in predicting unobserved joint distributions.
New criteria distinguish cause from effect in data, overcoming statistical limitations.
problem Determining causal direction from statistical dependence alone.
method Intuitive criteria based on simplicity of prediction, tested on synthetic data.
result Criteria accurately distinguish cause from effect in various scenarios.
LOAD discovers optimal adjustments locally for scalable causal inference.
problem Scalable causal inference for unknown causal graphs.
method Local Optimal Adjustments Discovery (LOAD) method.
result LOAD combines local and global approaches for efficient and accurate causal effect estimation.
We consider basic conceptual questions concerning the relationship between statistical estimation and causal inference. Firstly, we show how to translate causal inference problems into an abstract statistical formalism without requiring any structure beyond an arbitrarily-indexed family of probability models. The forma…
This survey explores causal inference in banking, finance, and insurance.
problem Explaining decisions in banking, finance, and insurance using causal inference.
method Categorizes 37 papers on causal inference applications in banking, finance, and insurance.
result Causal inference is still in its infancy in banking and insurance sectors.
New method reduces errors in causal discovery from data.
problem Errors in causal discovery from limited data.
method Hierarchical wrapper for constraint-based algorithms.
result Significantly fewer tests, more accurate graphs, shorter run-times.
Paper identifies and estimates CAPCEs in continuous treatment settings.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal effects of continuous treatments.
method Instrumental variable approach to identify CAPCEs under weaker conditions.
result Developed three families of CAPCE estimators with statistical properties analyzed.
Many questions in Data Science are fundamentally causal in that our objective is to learn the effect of some exposure, randomized or not, on an outcome interest. Even studies that are seemingly non-causal, such as those with the goal of prediction or prevalence estimation, have causal elements, including differential c…
A model learns causal graphs from summary statistics of synthetic data.
problem Causal discovery algorithms are brittle with large sets of variables and limited data.
method A supervised model trained on synthetic data predicts causal graphs from summary statistics.
result The model generalizes well beyond its training set and runs on large graphs.
New benchmarks show LLMs struggle with causal discovery.
problem Leveraging LLMs for causal discovery is unreliable due to dataset leakage.
method Developing science-grounded benchmarks and hybrid methods combining LLM predictions with statistical analysis.
result LLMs perform poorly on novel, real-world scientific studies compared to classical methods.
Survey on causal inference methods for observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data.
method Comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework.
result Various causal effect estimation methods have been developed and compared.
New causal analysis reconciles predictive and statistical fairness.
problem Mutual exclusivity of predictive and statistical fairness notions.
method Derive a new causal decomposition formula for fairness measures.
result Predictive and statistical fairness are complementary, not mutually exclusive.
The paper proposes a new evaluation framework for causal inference models.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects from observational data.
method Complements evaluation of causal inference models with statistical evidence and non-parametric tests.
result Eliminates the influence of a few instances or simulations on benchmarking results.
Study finds a method to discover causal relationships that are invariant to marginal distributions.
problem Current causal discovery methods are sensitive to marginal distributions, leading to unreliable results.
method Proposes a non-parametric estimator that marginalizes the marginals to find intrinsic causal relationships.
result The proposed method yields causal estimators competitive with current methodologies and emphasizes uncertainty.
This paper integrates LLMs into SCD to improve causal inference accuracy.
problem Challenges in acquiring domain expert knowledge for causal models.
method Statistical causal prompting (SCP) for LLMs and prior knowledge augmentation for SCD.
result LLM-KBCI and SCD augmented with LLM-KBCI approach ground truths more closely.
TRAM-DAG models bridge interpretability and flexibility in causal modeling.
problem Modeling causal relationships in diverse data types while maintaining interpretability.
method Using transformation models (TRAMs) within structural causal models (SCMs) to handle various data types and maintain interpretability.
result TRAM-DAG models achieve equal or superior performance in causal queries across different levels of the causal hierarchy.
Summary statistics of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) teach causal relationship between millions of genetic markers and tens and thousands of phenotypes. However, underlying biological mechanisms are yet to be elucidated. We can achieve necessary interpretation of GWAS in a causal mediation framework, looking to…
We analyze a family of methods for statistical causal inference from sample under the so-called Additive Noise Model. While most work on the subject has concentrated on establishing the soundness of the Additive Noise Model, the statistical consistency of the resulting inference methods has received little attention. W…
FoundCause: Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders from Observational Data
problem Causal discovery from observational data
method FoundCause, an amortized causal discovery model trained on synthetic data
result FoundCause outperforms classical and amortized methods on real-world datasets
Algorithm learns causal structures from time-series data, reducing tests for temporal vs. contemporaneous relations.
problem Learning causal structures from time-series data with latent confounders.
method Constraint-based algorithm that refines a causal graph by learning temporal relations first, then contemporaneous ones.
result Reduces the number of statistical tests and improves accuracy for synthetic and real-world data.
New method falsifies causal discovery results without ground truth.
problem Evaluation of causal discovery algorithms without ground truth data.
method Detects incompatibilities between causal graphs learned on different subsets of variables.
result Detection of incompatibilities can falsify wrongly inferred causal relations.
New algorithm improves causal discovery in biomedical data.
problem Stability and accuracy issues in causal discovery algorithms.
method Exploits temporal structure and tiered background knowledge.
result Increases accuracy in finite samples for causal structure estimation.
CausAdv detects adversarial examples using causal reasoning.
problem Vulnerability of CNNs to adversarial perturbations.
method Causal framework based on counterfactual reasoning.
result Adversarial examples exhibit different CI distributions compared to clean samples.
Local method identifies causal relations in Markov equivalent DAGs.
problem Identifying causal relations when multiple DAGs are Markov equivalent.
method Graphical condition and local criteria for identifying causal paths.
result Local learning algorithm efficiently identifies causal variables.
Novel causal effect estimators and distributionally robust prediction methods.
problem Estimating causal effects and distributional robustness in statistical models.
method Developed novel estimators and proposed a general framework for distributional robustness.
result Mean squared error improvements in causal effect estimation compared to existing methods.
QPE identifies causal effects without assuming mechanisms or noise.
problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data.
method Quantile Partial Effect (QPE) and Fisher Information.
result Causal directions can be distinguished using QPE and Fisher Information.
We describe a method that infers whether statistical dependences between two observed variables X and Y are due to a "direct" causal link or only due to a connecting causal path that contains an unobserved variable of low complexity, e.g., a binary variable. This problem is motivated by statistical genetics. Given a ge…
Study clarifies variance of stratification estimators for causal effects.
problem Estimating average causal effects with discrete covariates.
method Combines insights from potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models.
result Derives expressions for the variance of stratification estimators.
Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only single observations are present. We develop a theory how to generate causal grap…
New method prevents invalid inference after causal discovery.
problem Invalid inference after causal discovery.
method Developed tools for valid post-causal-discovery inference.
result Our method provides reliable coverage while achieving more accurate causal discovery.
FinCARE combines financial data and AI reasoning to improve causal analysis of financial performance.
problem Correlation-based analysis fails to capture true causal relationships in financial performance.
method Hybrid framework integrating causal discovery algorithms with financial domain knowledge from SEC filings and LLM reasoning.
result KG+LLM-enhanced methods improve causal discovery across PC, GES, and NOTEARS by 36-366%.
New method identifies causal relationships without strong assumptions.
problem Causal Representation Learning (CRL) is ill-posed due to representation and causal discovery issues.
method Identifiability based on grouping of observational variables, self-supervised estimation framework.
result Practical identifiability conditions without temporal structure, interventions, or weak supervision.
The paper investigates causal relationships in heart failure prediction using machine learning.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between clinical variables and heart failure.
method Proposes a new computational framework for causal structure discovery (CSD) of mixed-type clinical variables for binary disease outcomes.
result Feature importance from nonlinear classifiers strongly correlates with causal strength of variables, but not differentiating cause and effect.
Kernel measures similarity of nonlinear causal structures in heterogeneous populations.
problem Learning causal structure in populations with diverse underlying structures.
method Distance covariance-based kernel for measuring similarity of causal structures.
result Kernel enables clustering of homogeneous subpopulations for causal structure learning.