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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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60121181241 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for statistical brittleness

The paper highlights AI brittleness and the need for robust testing out-of-distribution performance.

problem The brittleness of AI systems, especially Deep Neural Networks, limits their reliability and certification.
method Analysis of AI brittleness and OOD performance, emphasizing the need for resilience and improved evaluation methods.
result AI systems are more failure-prone than certified in critical systems, and OOD performance falls off gradually.

Machine learning predicts failure in brittle materials with high accuracy.

problem Predicting failure in brittle materials under repetitive loads.
method Phase-field model combined with supervised machine learning.
result Framework predicts failure with acceptable accuracy even in noisy data.

Study identifies key parameters and input dimensions making LLMs and VLMs brittle.

problem Vulnerability of large language and vision-language models to perturbations.
method Proposed FI measure based on information geometry to quantify sensitivity.
result Small subset of high FI parameters significantly contribute to brittleness.

AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.

problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.

ARO overfits by making constraints dependent on uncertainty, leading to brittleness.

problem ARO's adaptive policies become brittle when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set.
method Assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes with probabilistic guarantees.
result Regularization through specific uncertainty set sizes ensures stability and flexibility.

New framework detects out-of-distribution samples efficiently.

problem Detecting samples from different distributions in deep neural networks.
method Statistical hypothesis testing framework combining evidence from entire network.
result Framework maintains Type I Error and achieves comparable results to state-of-the-art methods.

Recent reinforcement learning algorithms, though achieving impressive results in various fields, suffer from brittle training effects such as regression in results and high sensitivity to initialization and parameters. We claim that some of the brittleness stems from variance differences, i.e. when different environmen…

2019-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

A model learns causal graphs from summary statistics of synthetic data.

problem Causal discovery algorithms are brittle with large sets of variables and limited data.
method A supervised model trained on synthetic data predicts causal graphs from summary statistics.
result The model generalizes well beyond its training set and runs on large graphs.

OPAL optimizes labeling strategy for precise inference from uncertain models.

problem Inference from uncertain machine learning models is brittle.
method OPAL learns a smooth policy to adaptively label data points based on model uncertainty.
result OPAL yields estimators with the lowest variance and achieves nominal coverage in finite samples.

Inference-Time Scaling can be extended to domains prone to systematic failure using intrinsic statistics.

problem Scaling inference time in domains prone to systematic failure
method Intrinsic Selection (iS), Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF), and Particle Distillation (dPF)
result Intrinsic Selection improves engineering design selection by 20% and pass@1 by 6.1 points on average.

DAFNO learns surrogates for complex systems on irregular geometries.

problem Learning accurate surrogates for complex physical systems on irregular geometries.
method DAFNO incorporates a smoothed characteristic function in the integral layer architecture of FNOs, leveraging FFT for rapid computations.
result DAFNO achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on material modeling and airfoil simulation datasets.

Adversarial examples have attracted significant attention in machine learning, but the reasons for their existence and pervasiveness remain unclear. We demonstrate that adversarial examples can be directly attributed to the presence of non-robust features: features derived from patterns in the data distribution that ar…

2019-05-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in software engineering and program analysis tasks. They usually take a program and make some predictions about it, e.g., bug prediction. We call these models neural program analyzers. The reliability of neural programs can impact the reliability of the encompassing anal…

2019-08-25abs ↗pdf ↗

IGNIS uses neural networks to estimate copula parameters robustly.

problem Pathological properties of Archimedean copulas make traditional estimators brittle.
method Unified neural estimation framework with multi-input architecture and softplus output layer.
result Accurate and stable estimates for real-world datasets.

Optimizes structure topology for ductile and brittle fracture resistance.

problem Minimizing mass while ensuring structural damage and fracture resistance.
method Phase-field approach for modeling fracture, level-set topology optimization.
result Enhanced fracture resistance through two formulations.

While current benchmark reinforcement learning (RL) tasks have been useful to drive progress in the field, they are in many ways poor substitutes for learning with real-world data. By testing increasingly complex RL algorithms on low-complexity simulation environments, we often end up with brittle RL policies that gene…

2018-11-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Standard stochastic optimization methods are brittle, sensitive to stepsize choices and other algorithmic parameters, and they exhibit instability outside of well-behaved families of objectives. To address these challenges, we investigate models for stochastic minimization and learning problems that exhibit better robu…

2019-03-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have developed into useful tools for probabilistic modelling due to recent advances in variational inference enabling large scale BNNs. However, BNNs remain brittle and hard to train, especially: (1) when using deep architectures consisting of many hidden layers and (2) in situations wit…

2019-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

A robust approach compensates for small-data tasks in mixed linear regression.

problem Learning from small batches of data in tasks with many similar but insufficiently labeled examples.
method Spectral approach combining outlier-robust PCA and sum-of-squares algorithms.
result The approach achieves a graceful statistical trade-off, allowing smaller tasks than previously required.

A simple method treats heteroscedastic variance variatively, improving model calibration and sample quality.

problem Brittle optimization impacts model likelihoods for mean and variance estimation.
method Proposes a variational approach to heteroscedastic variance, improving predictive mean and variance calibration.
result The proposed method significantly improves parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.

K-means clustering improved for robustness to outliers and distribution shifts.

problem K-means is brittle to outliers, distribution shifts, and limited samples.
method Developed a distributionally robust variant using Wasserstein-2 ball around the empirical distribution.
result Substantial gains in outlier detection and robustness to noise demonstrated.

The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.

problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.

Machine learning is currently dominated by largely experimental work focused on improvements in a few key tasks. However, the impressive accuracy numbers of the best performing models are questionable because the same test sets have been used to select these models for multiple years now. To understand the danger of ov…

2018-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the problem of using i.i.d. samples from an unknown multivariate probability distribution pp to estimate the mutual information of pp. This problem has recently received attention in two settings: (1) where pp is assumed to be Gaussian and (2) where pp is assumed only to lie in a large nonparametric smooth…

2017-02-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Reinforcement learning offers the promise of automating the acquisition of complex behavioral skills. However, compared to commonly used and well-understood supervised learning methods, reinforcement learning algorithms can be brittle, difficult to use and tune, and sensitive to seemingly innocuous implementation decis…

2019-12-31abs ↗pdf ↗

New method reduces over-pessimism in Bayesian control under parameter uncertainty.

problem Over-pessimism in Bayesian control due to misspecified priors.
method Distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) with strong duality and optimization.
result Validated algorithm on synthetic and real data, reducing over-pessimism.

Deconfounding scores improve causal effect estimation with weak overlap.

problem Challenges in causal treatment effect estimation due to weak overlap in high-dimensional data.
method Propose deconfounding scores to preserve identification and target estimation while improving overlap.
result Prognostic scores are overlap-optimal under a broad family of generalized linear models with Gaussian features.