Statistical arbitrageurs have inelastic demand, contrary to classical models.
problem Understanding the demand elasticity of statistical arbitrageurs.
method Thirteen models from the literature and a quantitative equilibrium model.
result Aggregate demand remains inelastic even with statistical arbitrageurs.
Study identifies Bitcoin arbitrageurs and their trading strategies.
problem Detecting and understanding Bitcoin arbitrageurs on Mt. Gox.
method Analyzing historical trade data from Mt. Gox (2011-2014) to identify and categorize arbitrageurs.
result Expert arbitrageurs have a positive profit margin, while novice users do not.
Dark blockchain venues increase miners' profits but raise users' execution risk.
problem Exploitable information leakage in blockchain transactions.
method Economic incentive analysis and empirical study of dark venues.
result Dark venues increase miners' profits but raise users' execution risk.
Modeling gas fee competition in decentralized exchanges to optimize arbitrage profits.
problem Gas fees and transaction ordering in decentralized exchanges create arbitrage opportunities.
method Developed a first equilibrium model of gas fee competition between two arbitrageurs under three transaction reversion settings.
result Mixed equilibria exist, and their characteristics depend on inventory risk and transaction settings.
Develops a deep learning approach for statistical arbitrage.
problem Temporal price differences between similar assets.
method Constructs arbitrage portfolios using latent asset pricing factors and a convolutional transformer for time series signals.
result High risk-adjusted returns and Sharpe ratios with optimal trading policy.
A blockchain replaces central counterparties with time-consuming consensus protocols to record the transfer of ownership. This settlement latency slows cross-exchange trading, exposing arbitrageurs to price risk. Off-chain settlement, instead, exposes arbitrageurs to costly default risk. We show with Bitcoin network an…
The study examines how backrun auctions can protect traders from price manipulation.
problem Price manipulation by arbitrageurs in batched trading venues.
method Developed a laminated queueing model to study price manipulation and introduced a price manipulation coefficient.
result Bound the price manipulation coefficient and found it approximated by a 'zeta value' with measurable parameters.
The notion that economies should normally be in equilibrium is by now well-established; equally well-established is that economies are almost never precisely in equilibrium. Using a very general formulation, we show that under dynamics that are second-order in time a price system can remain away from equilibrium with p…
In this work, we aim to gain a better understanding of the volatility smile observed in options markets through microsimulation (MS). We adopt two types of active traders in our MS model: speculators and arbitrageurs, and call and put options on one underlying asset. Speculators make decisions based on their expectatio…
Geometric Mean Market Makers super-hedge impermanent loss without models.
problem Super-hedging impermanent loss in Geometric Mean Market Makers.
method Model-free rebalancing strategy.
result Loss-versus-rebalancing vanishes due to finite variation exchange rate.
Optimal dynamic fees found for AMMs to deter arbitrageurs and attract noise traders.
problem Optimizing fees in AMMs to balance against arbitrage and noise trading.
method Approximate closed-form solutions to control problem, study of fee structure.
result Two distinct fee regimes identified: high fees to deter arbitrage, low fees to attract noise traders.
Study shows AMM liquidity providers lose more than they earn, with varying profitability across pairs.
problem Arbitrage losses by liquidity providers on AMMs exceed fees earned.
method Empirical study of losses and profitability across different AMM pools and block times.
result Uniswap v2 pools are more profitable for passive LPs than Uniswap v3.
Study on efficiency of Dutch auctions on blockchains considering various parameters.
problem Efficiency and fairness in Dutch auctions on blockchains.
method Modeling Dutch auctions with Poisson process and geometric Brownian motion, computing expected losses and time-to-fill.
result Tradeoff between speed and quality in Dutch auctions, useful for setting parameters.
Study compares Web3 tokens to traditional assets, finding similar statistical properties.
problem Understanding statistical properties of Web3 tokens compared to traditional financial assets.
method Statistical analysis of various Web3 tokens across multiple time scales, comparing with traditional financial assets.
result Most Web3 tokens exhibit similar stylized facts to traditional financial assets, including heavy tails and volatility clustering.
Modeling fees impacts on arbitrage profits and LP losses in AMMs.
problem Impact of trading fees on arbitrage profits and LP losses in AMMs.
method Extended model of AMMs with fees and Poisson block generation times, computed instantaneous rate of arbitrage profit.
result Fees scale down arbitrage profits, reducing LP losses with faster block rates and lower gas fees.
JIT liquidity providers can sometimes reduce overall market liquidity by crowding out passive LPs.
problem JIT liquidity providers can reduce overall market liquidity by crowding out passive LPs.
method Game-theoretic model with asymmetrically informed agents to analyze JIT liquidity provision in blockchain-based decentralized exchanges.
result JIT LPs only provide liquidity to uninformed orders and crowd out passive LPs when order volume is not sufficiently elastic to pool depth, potentially reducing overall market liquidity.
This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign exchange trader-arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three-currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a "balanced" ensemble of exc…
We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the nonlinear feedbacks, the termination of a bubble is found to be characterized by a …
Paper predicts M&A deal success using ML and DL techniques.
problem Predicting the success of M&A deals to avoid costly mistakes.
method Data preprocessing with ML techniques, feedforward neural networks, and sentiment scores integration.
result Methodology outperforms benchmark models in preliminary tests.
This article examines arbitrage investment in a mispriced asset when the mispricing follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and a credit-constrained investor maximizes a generalization of the Kelly criterion. The optimal differentiable and threshold policies are derived. The optimal differentiable policy is linear with …
Statistical physics method analyzes minority game dynamics in financial markets.
problem Analyzing arbitrage dynamics in financial markets with noise.
method Cavity method from statistical physics for linear and time-dependent responses.
result Noise reduces arbitrage, and market dynamics exhibit non-Markovian behavior.
New formula identifies and quantifies costs for automated market makers.
problem Adverse selection costs faced by liquidity providers in automated market makers.
method Derives a Black-Scholes-like formula for AMMs and identifies loss-versus-rebalancing cost.
result Closed-form expressions for LVR applicable to all automated market makers.
This paper introduces a new metric to improve the performance of AMMs over centralised exchanges.
problem Lack of a precise metric to compare AMM performance with centralised exchanges.
method Introduces Rebalancing-versus-Rebalancing (RVR) to measure AMM performance more accurately.
result AMMs can offer superior execution and rebalancing efficiency compared to centralised exchanges, even with low fees.
Paper shows how to replicate payoffs without oracles in CFMMs.
problem Replicating payoffs without oracles in CFMMs.
method Using liquidity provider shares in CFMMs to match any monotonic payoff.
result Explicit method and formula for trading functions and earnings.
Study reveals a hidden cost in derivatives markets through option-implied discount factors.
problem The hidden cost in derivatives markets, not visible in price space.
method Minute-level NBBO data on options, reduced-form specification linking carry gap to implementation risk, trading frictions, and financial conditions.
result An annualized carry gap exists, linked to implementation risk and financial conditions.
We consider models of financial markets in which all parties involved find incentives to participate. Strategies are evaluated directly by their virtual wealths. By tuning the price sensitivity and market impact, a phase diagram with several attractor behaviors resembling those of real markets emerge, reflecting the ro…
If financial markets displayed the informational efficiency postulated in the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), arbitrage operations would be self-extinguishing. The present paper considers arbitrage sequences in foreign exchange (FX) markets, in which trading platforms and information are fragmented. In Kozyakin et …
Develops a mathematical model for CLMM dynamics in DeFi.
problem Analyzing CLMMs in continuous time trading.
method Modeling CLMM dynamics as measure-valued processes, examining three arbitrage models.
result Trading fees limit admissible price processes, impacting CLMM design.
We examine the Foreign Exchange (FX) spot price spreads with and without Last Look on the transaction. We assume that brokers are risk-neutral and they quote spreads so that losses to latency arbitrageurs (LAs) are recovered from other traders in the FX market. These losses are reduced if the broker can reject, ex-post…
PDLPs reduce borrowing costs for perpetual futures traders.
problem High capital costs for market makers and traders in decentralized settings.
method Formalize PDLPs and target weight mechanisms, describe pool arbitrage and expected payoffs.
result PDLPs are easy to delta hedge, improving capital efficiency.
Study finds a phase transition in flash crashes involving large and liquid stocks.
problem Systemic risk and propagation of shocks in high frequency trading.
method In-depth investigation of co-crashes in high frequency trading.
result Large co-crashes involve mostly illiquid stocks, while small crashes involve a mix of liquid and illiquid stocks.
DFMM automates market making with adaptive pricing and risk management.
problem Challenges in decentralised automated market making (AMMs).
method Data aggregator, order routing, rebalancing, arbitrageurs, protective buffers, algorithmic accounting.
result DFMM optimises inventory risk and ensures market stability.
Transient market impact explained via Nash equilibrium in a game.
problem Understanding the transient nature of market impact.
method Analyzing a game between a trader and an arbitrageur, deriving decay kernels.
result Implied transient impact can be derived from trader behavior at Nash equilibrium.
Study liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges considering risk aversion and replication costs.
problem Economic viability of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Formulated strategic interactions as a sequential game with risk-averse LP, traders, and arbitrageurs.
result DEX liquidity depth is crucial for risk management, influenced by risk aversion and replication costs.
New method evaluates language model forecasters by checking consistency of predictions.
problem Evaluating the performance of language model forecasters is difficult due to lack of ground truth.
method Developed a consistency check framework based on arbitrage to evaluate forecasters.
result Consistency metrics correlate with ground truth performance of LLM forecasters.
This paper addresses AMMs for expiring assets, ensuring liquidity and risk management.
problem AMMs struggle with assets that expire, leading to liquidity issues and risk exposure.
method Combines AMM and limit-order book features, ensuring liveness and dynamic price adjustment.
result A DEX for expiring assets maintains liquidity and risk management.
This paper analyzes and compares different Automated Market Maker mechanisms.
problem Impermanent loss in Constant Function Market Makers.
method Mean-Variance analysis of liquidity providers' profit and loss, comparison of different mechanisms.
result Optimized oracle-based mechanisms outperform Constant Function Market Makers.
Developing an Agent-Based Model to Mitigate Adverse Selection in Uniswap v3 Liquidity Providers
problem Adverse selection in Uniswap v3 liquidity providers
method Agent-Based Model incorporating blockchain microstructure and volatility dynamics
result Dynamic fee schedules improve hedged Profit and Loss for liquidity providers
Optimal fees protect passive LPs in AMMs under varying market conditions.
problem Adverse selection losses in AMMs are not offset by static trading fees.
method Dynamic reduced-form model with parallel AMM and CEX, large-scale simulations, real market data analysis.
result Optimal AMM fees are stable under normal conditions but high in volatile periods to protect LPs.
Optimal rebalancing strategy improves AMM pool performance by 25%.
problem Optimizing the sequence of weights in dynamic AMM pools to minimize rebalancing costs.
method Using optimal interpolation and a cheap-to-compute approximation to achieve nearly optimal rebalancing.
result Approximately-optimal weight changes lead to significant increases in pool performance (up to 25%) under various conditions.
Optimizes liquidity withdrawal timing for AMM LPs to balance fees and impermanent loss.
problem Balancing fees and impermanent loss in automated market makers.
method Stochastic control problem with endogenous stopping time, numerical solutions via Euler scheme and Longstaff-Schwartz method.
result Optimal exit strategy depends on volatility, fees, and market dynamics.
New dynamic curves improve cryptocurrency exchange liquidity.
problem Low liquidity and arbitrage opportunities in existing AMMs.
method Dynamic curves adjust AMM function based on market prices.
result Maintains liquidity and total LP value over wide market price ranges.
Dynamic-weight AMMs outperform traditional CEX rebalancing in tokenized funds, especially on L2s.
problem Improving asset allocation efficiency in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.
method Block-level arbitrage analysis and long-term performance benchmarks on two live pools.
result Dynamic-weight AMMs can achieve performance comparable to or better than traditional CEX rebalancing, especially on Layer 2 (L2) networks.
Study finds discrepancies in open interest reporting for Bitcoin perpetual swaps.
problem Misquoted open interest in perpetual swaps leads to liquidity and solvency concerns.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data from seven exchanges to identify discrepancies.
result Open interest reported by exchanges varies widely, some implausible.
This paper uses a mean-field game to model stablecoin market dynamics and recovery.
problem Understanding who restores the peg during de-pegging events of stablecoins.
method Dynamic, agent-based mean-field game framework for fiat-collateralized stablecoins.
result The equilibrium formulation endogenously maps market frictions into a price path and order flows, allowing for stress testing and attribution of peg-reverting pressure.
Study on costs of manipulating AMM-based price oracles.
problem Cost of manipulation in AMM-based on-chain price oracles.
method Analyzes the robustness of AMM-based oracles to strategic manipulation, considering different aggregation methods and market conditions.
result Manipulation costs depend on the total quote depth and can be minimized by optimal liquidity weights.
DeFi lending protocols faced challenges during Ethereum's merge, but avoided major liquidations.
problem Ethereum's merge caused volatility and potential liquidations in DeFi lending.
method Analyzed AAVE and Compound lending protocols during the merge and hard fork.
result Borrowing rates spiked but no significant liquidations occurred.
FLAIR measures LP competitiveness in AMMs, improving LP performance evaluations.
problem LP returns are affected by both market risk and competitive strategies.
method Introduces FLAIR metric to quantify LP competitiveness and assesses its impact on LP returns.
result FLAIR captures dynamic behavior of LPs and differentiates between active provisioning strategies.