A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study stationary measures and orbit closures for non-abelian actions on surfaces.
problem Classify stationary measures and orbit closures for non-abelian action on a surface.
method Use a finite verifiable average growth condition and results from Brown and Rodriguez Hertz.
result Show that under certain conditions, the only nonatomic stationary measure is the given smooth invariant measure, and every orbit closure is either finite or dense.
In this short report, we investigate the ability of the DCCA coefficient to measure correlation level between non-stationary series. Based on a wide Monte Carlo simulation study, we show that the DCCA coefficient can estimate the correlation coefficient accurately regardless the strength of non-stationarity (measured b…
Bandit algorithms have been predominantly analyzed in the convex setting with function-value based stationary regret as the performance measure. In this paper, motivated by online reinforcement learning problems, we propose and analyze bandit algorithms for both general and structured nonconvex problems with nonstation…
We introduce a new unsupervised learning problem: clustering wide-sense stationary ergodic stochastic processes. A covariance-based dissimilarity measure together with asymptotically consistent algorithms is designed for clustering offline and online datasets, respectively. We also suggest a formal criterion on the eff…
In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility…
For stationary harmonic maps between Riemannian manifolds, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the uniform interior and boundary gradient estimates in terms of the total energy of maps. We also show that if analytic target manifolds do not carry any harmonic S^2, then the singular sets of stationary map…
The paper models financial markets using information theory to minimize information.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets.
method Modeling financial market dynamics with independent stationary scalar diffusions, interpreting the market as a communication system, and minimizing information-theoretical joint information.
result Financial market dynamics are represented by squared radial Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with additivity and self-similarity properties.
We characterize stationary solutions to McKean-Vlasov equations on the circle.
problem Stationary solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations on the circle.
method Exact equivalence to an infinite-dimensional quadratic system of equations over Fourier coefficients, leading to explicit characterization of stationary states.
result Analytic expressions for the emergence, form, and shape of bifurcations involving multiple Fourier modes, and connections with discontinuous phase transitions.
In the paper, we introduce a new measure of correlation between possibly non-stationary series. As the measure is based on the detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA), we label it as the DMCA coefficient ρDMCA(λ) with a moving average window length λ. We analytically show that the coefficient…
We consider a non-stationary variant of a sequential stochastic optimization problem, in which the underlying cost functions may change along the horizon. We propose a measure, termed variation budget, that controls the extent of said change, and study how restrictions on this budget impact achievable performance. We i…
Enhances time-series regression trees with latent factors for robust financial analysis.
problem Handling predictors with measurement error, trends, seasonality, and missing data.
method Integrates latent stationary factors extracted via state-space methods into time-series regression trees.
result Factor-augmented trees provide a reliable approach for macro-finance problems, exemplified by the lead-lag effect between equity volatility and the business cycle.
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…
The notion of the stationary equilibrium ensemble has played a central role in statistical mechanics. In machine learning as well, training serves as generalized equilibration that drives the probability distribution of model parameters toward stationarity. Here, we derive stationary fluctuation-dissipation relations t…
We construct stationary flat three-dimensional Lorentzian manifolds with singularities that are obtained from Euclidean surfaces with cone singularities and closed one-forms on these surfaces. In the application to (2+1)-gravity, these spacetimes correspond to models containing massive particles with spin. We analyse t…
Study tackles non-stationary bandit convex optimization with new algorithms.
problem Minimizing regret in non-stationary environments with various measures of non-stationarity.
method Proposed Tilted Exponentially Weighted Average with Sleeping Experts (TEWA-SE) for strongly convex losses and clipped Exploration by Optimization (cExO) for general convex losses.
result Proved minimax-optimality of TEWA-SE for strongly convex losses and introduced cExO for general convex losses.