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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for state-space residuals

KBB algorithm reduces sample complexity for policy evaluation in general state spaces.

problem Policy evaluation in large state spaces with high sample complexity.
method Alternates between fitting Bellman residual and estimating value function via adaptive feature set growth.
result Super-linear convergence rates demonstrated, with reductions in sample complexity.

SPECTRA improves probabilistic energy forecasting by separating trends and uncertainties.

problem Interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, demand flexibility, market volatility, and weather impact probabilistic forecasts.
method Adaptive state-space exogenous context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture.
result Achieved best CRPS in 14 out of 18 settings, reducing CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27%.

This paper examines foreign exchange risk premia from simple univariate regressions to the state-space method. The adjusted traditional regressions properly figure out the existence and time-evolving property of the risk premia. Successively, the state-space estimations overall are quite rationally competent in examini…

2016-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Framework identifies discrepancies in physics models, improving sensor accuracy.

problem Model inaccuracies leading to poor control algorithms.
method Learning systematic state-space residuals and deterministic dynamical errors.
result Improved quantification of system dynamics and control algorithms.

CW-EDMD improves prediction accuracy by learning local Koopman models for different state-space regions.

problem Inefficient global Koopman operator approximation for distinct local dynamics.
method Cluster-Weighted EDMD (CW-EDMD) learns a soft phase-space partition and per-cluster EDMD operators using EM objective.
result CW-EDMD significantly reduces prediction errors across various systems and configurations.

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those …

2013-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper forecasts financial trading durations using a new point process model.

problem Forecasting limit order book durations in high-frequency financial data.
method Self-exciting flexible residual point process incorporating empirical distributional features.
result The model achieves strong predictive performance compared to alternative approaches.

Enhances Gaussian process models for handling variable error variances and multiple responses.

problem Limited ability of Gaussian process models to capture abrupt changes and heteroscedastic errors.
method Introduces a novel heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HeGP) framework coupled with variational inference and EM algorithm.
result Effective modeling of multivariate responses with varying error variances.

Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.

problem Analyzing nonlinear systems with noisy data.
method Combining empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling.
result Empirical mode modeling enhances state-space representations in noisy data.

The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.

problem Efficient regression and state estimation for deep Gaussian processes.
method Hierarchical transformed Gaussian process priors, state-space representation, linear stochastic differential equations, sequential methods.
result The state-space approach enables efficient state estimation and regression for deep Gaussian processes.

State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are linear transformations of the nonnegative orthant.

problem Characterizing state spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes.
method Explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.
result State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are given by explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.

Divides state space into regions with identical term structure shapes.

problem Classifying term structure shapes in the two-factor Vasicek model.
method Using envelopes and winding numbers to divide and classify the state space.
result Nearly complete classification of parameter space regarding term structure shapes.

We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in O(n)\mathcal{O}(n) time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression …

2018-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.

problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.

Residual finiteness is known to be an important property of groups appearing in combinatorial group theory and low dimensional topology. In a recent work [2] residual finiteness of quandles was introduced, and it was proved that free quandles and knot quandles are residually finite. In this paper, we extend these resul…

2019-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

In this note, residual finiteness of quandles is defined and investigated. It is proved that free quandles and knot quandles of tame knots are residually finite and Hopfian. Residual finiteness of quandles arising from residually finite groups (conjugation, core and Alexander quandles) is established. Further, residual…

2018-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.

problem Inference in non-linear state-space models.
method StateMixNN method using neural networks for proposal and transition distributions.
result Significantly improved recovery of hidden state, especially in highly non-linear scenarios.

Robust state-space radio interferometric imaging using Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization

problem Improving state-space radio interferometric imaging in the presence of heavy-tailed noise
method Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization
result Significant improvement in reconstruction fidelity and robustness to radio-frequency interference

State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.

problem Understanding probabilistic dependencies in state-space systems.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework and proving sufficient conditions for output existence and uniqueness.
result State-space systems can generate probabilistic dependencies, even without functional relations.

In this paper we investigate a link between state- space models and Gaussian Processes (GP) for time series modeling and forecasting. In particular, several widely used state- space models are transformed into continuous time form and corresponding Gaussian Process kernels are derived. Experimen- tal results demonstrat…

2016-10-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Researchers identify critical protein residues using advanced graph theory.

problem Identifying essential residues in proteins for function.
method Learning Random Geometric Graphs (RGG) with Cramer's V correlation and organic thresholding.
result Advanced RGG methods accurately identify critical residues compared to existing techniques.

Defines Wodzicki residue using groupoids and fibered distributions.

problem Defining and understanding the Wodzicki residue in noncommutative geometry.
method Using groupoid language and filtered manifolds, defining the residue and showing its properties.
result The groupoidal residue is a trace on pseudodifferential operators and matches the usual residue in certain cases.

The volume of the quantum mechanical state space over nn-dimensional real, complex and quaternionic Hilbert-spaces with respect to the canonical Euclidean measure is computed, and explicit formulas are presented for the expected value of the determinant in the general setting too. The case when the state space is endo…

2006-04-14abs ↗pdf ↗

In this work we prove a Baum-Bott type residue theorem for flags of holomorphic foliations. We prove some relations between the residues of the flag and the residues of their correspondent foliations. We define the Nash residue for flags and we give a partial answer to the Baum-Bott type rationality conjecture in this …

2016-02-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We revisit residual algorithms in both model-free and model-based reinforcement learning settings. We propose the bidirectional target network technique to stabilize residual algorithms, yielding a residual version of DDPG that significantly outperforms vanilla DDPG in the DeepMind Control Suite benchmark. Moreover, we…

2019-05-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores learning good policies from past data in large state spaces.

problem Learning good policies from historical data in large state spaces.
method Introduces expressivity assumptions and data coverage for function approximation and algorithmic design.
result A variety of algorithms and their guarantees are presented based on assumptions and desired complexity.

Wide residual networks generalize well with uniform convergence to RNTK as width increases.

problem Understanding the generalization ability of wide residual networks.
method Uniform convergence of residual network kernel to residual neural tangent kernel (RNTK).
result Generalization error converges to kernel regression error with respect to RNTK.

Study proves steady state space hypersurfaces are hyperplanes under certain curvature constraints.

problem Characterizing complete spacelike hypersurfaces in steady state space.
method Extended Omori-Yau's maximum principle.
result Proves complete spacelike hypersurfaces are hyperplanes under specific curvature conditions.

The paper studies residues of manifolds and their applications in geometry.

problem Understanding the residues of manifolds and their geometric implications.
method Analytic continuation and Möbius invariance of residues, introduction of relative and weighted residues.
result Scalar curvature, mean curvature, and Euler characteristic can be expressed in terms of residues.

Given a prime pp, a group is called residually pp if the intersection of its pp-power index normal subgroups is trivial. A group is called virtually residually pp if it has a finite index subgroup which is residually pp. It is well-known that finitely generated linear groups over fields of characteristic zero are …

2010-04-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New model for insurance states using Markov jump processes with non-countable state space.

problem Modeling insurance states with non-countable state spaces.
method Developed a new Thiele's differential equation for continuous time rehabilitation rates.
result Allows for consistent calculation of reserves in disability insurance.