Unified deep sequential and state-space models for robust option pricing with uncertainty.
problem Combining robustness to noise and uncertainty measurement in option pricing models.
method Unscattered reservoir smoother (URS) integrating deep sequential and state-space models.
result URS achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and uncertainty measurement in noisy datasets.
Unified approach to mortality modeling using state-space framework.
problem Dynamic mortality modeling and forecasting.
method State-space framework, alternative model identification constraints, Bayesian state-space models, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
result Enhanced models with improved model fit and forecasting properties.
A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.
problem Inference in non-linear state-space models.
method StateMixNN method using neural networks for proposal and transition distributions.
result Significantly improved recovery of hidden state, especially in highly non-linear scenarios.
Bayesian state-space model accounts for cohort effects in mortality modeling.
problem Capturing cohort effects in mortality modeling for various countries.
method State-space methodology with Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler.
result Cohort factors are crucial for accurate mortality forecasting and life expectancy calculations.
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
problem Efficient inference for probabilistic deep state-space models.
method Deterministic inference algorithm for ProDSSM with neural network weights.
result Superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.
A new framework for time series analysis using state-space learning.
problem Ineffectiveness of traditional Kalman filtering in handling big data and multiple explanatory variables.
method State Space Learning (SSL) framework using statistical learning for high-dimensional regression.
result SSL outperforms traditional methods in subset selection and forecasting accuracy.
Paper offers fast deep learning approach for SSMs.
problem Approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs.
method Deep learning and variational inference.
result Fast approach for SSMs.
New framework for AI to learn causal models through experience.
problem Lack of guidance for variable choice and interventions in causal models for AI.
method Defines actions as state space transformations, introduces causal variables, and identifies interventions.
result Clarifies the concept of interventions and makes causal representation learning clearer.
A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
problem Adapting models to new data under distributional shift
method State-space modelling architecture
result Characterizing parameter learning, time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction
New framework analyzes temporal features in state space models.
problem Understanding temporal dependencies in data streams.
method Proposes a framework for rigorous analysis of state representations in ESNs, using temporal feature spaces and kernel machines.
result Phase transition in kernel richness for cycle reservoir topology.
This paper reviews deep learning methods for state space models.
problem Analyzing temporal dynamics in dynamical systems.
method Selective review of deep neural network approaches for state space models.
result Unified perspective on discrete and continuous time SSMs.
Improves state space models' resistance to noise.
problem State space models' initialization assumes noise-free data, which is often violated.
method Uncertainty-aware initialization for state space models, reformulating HiPPO with measurement noise.
result Improves model resistance to noise at training and inference time.
A new framework using kernel packets overcomes limitations of state space models for multi-dimensional data.
problem Computational limitations of Gaussian process regression in large-scale applications.
method Kernel packet approach, identifying KPs via forward and backward state space representations.
result Exact, memory-efficient inference with linear-time training and logarithmic/predictive time.
Robust state-space radio interferometric imaging using Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization
problem Improving state-space radio interferometric imaging in the presence of heavy-tailed noise
method Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization
result Significant improvement in reconstruction fidelity and robustness to radio-frequency interference
Paper improves calcium signal deconvolution using efficient state-space models.
problem Deconvolving calcium signals from imaging data.
method Dynamic compressed sensing framework with two nested EM algorithms.
result Proves recovery guarantees and derives confidence bounds for state estimates.
Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.
problem Analyzing complex interactions between fast and slow processes.
method Hierarchical state-space modeling with Sequential Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian approach accurately tracks state transitions and identifies switching dynamics.
A new method learns complex dynamical systems from data efficiently.
problem Learning complex dynamical systems from large-scale data efficiently.
method Low-rank structured variational autoencoding framework for nonlinear Gaussian state-space models.
result Consistently demonstrates better predictive capabilities compared to other models.
State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.
problem Understanding probabilistic dependencies in state-space systems.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework and proving sufficient conditions for output existence and uniqueness.
result State-space systems can generate probabilistic dependencies, even without functional relations.
Proposes learning latent reward model for planning from rewards.
problem Planning in high-dimensional state spaces with limited reward information.
method Directly learns a latent dynamics model from rewards, planning in latent state-space.
result Successfully learns accurate latent reward prediction model, achieving strong performance and high sample efficiency.
Improved state estimation in high-dimensional models using Zig-Zag Sampler.
problem Weight degeneracy in particle filtering methods for high-dimensional state space models.
method Discrete Zig-Zag Sampler applied within the Composite MH Kernel of SMCMC framework.
result Improves estimation accuracy and increases acceptance ratio in high-dimensional state estimation.
Framework helps RL agents generalize from simpler to more complex domains.
problem RL agents struggle to generalize to new domains.
method Recurrent attention mechanism to decompose state space into subtasks.
result Meta-controller learns to create subgoals within attention.
Improved tracking and prediction of moving objects in visual data streams.
problem Tracking and predicting multiple moving objects in visual data streams.
method Disentangled latent state-space model with amortized variational Bayesian inference.
result Significantly improved long-term prediction and object decomposition in the presence of occlusions.
Improves Gaussian process models for large datasets.
problem Complexity and memory limitations in Gaussian process models.
method Combines variational sparse approximation and state-space formulation.
result Significant computational and memory savings for large datasets.
New method improves deep learning model robustness and accuracy for long sequences.
problem Challenges in learning long-range sequence tasks using state-space models.
method Proposes a perturb-then-diagonalize (PTD) methodology to address ill-posed diagonalization problems in SSMs.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and accuracy of S5-PTD model on Long-Range Arena benchmark.
This paper generalizes neural transport learning for free energy estimation in arbitrary state spaces.
problem Efficient estimation of free energy in various state spaces.
method Generalized neural transport learning approach for arbitrary state spaces.
result Validation of the proposed method's effectiveness and efficiency in diverse settings.
A DRL framework optimizes portfolios using a LFSS module for feature extraction.
problem Optimizing dynamic portfolios in financial markets.
method Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Latent Feature State Space module.
result The proposed DRL framework outperforms benchmarks in portfolio optimization.
Bayesian model learns multiscale interactions in complex systems.
problem Understanding dynamic interplay between processes at different time scales.
method Bayesian learning framework with Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) algorithm.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach through simulations.
We develop the HJM framework for forward rates driven by affine processes on the state space of symmetric positive matrices. In this setting we find a representation for the long-term yield and investigate the yield's asymptotic behaviour.
Researchers derived Kauffman bracket polynomial for Celtic link shadows using two methods.
problem Calculating the Kauffman bracket polynomial for Celtic link shadows.
method Two complementary approaches: recursive relation and 4-tangle algebra.
result Derived Kauffman bracket polynomial for CK42n shadows. Improved DSSMs for easier interpretable latent variables.
problem Complex and hard-to-interpret latent variables in DSSMs.
method Simplified predictive decoder and shrinkage priors.
result Interpretable latent variables improve forecasting performance.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
A new state-space approach improves NMF for dynamic data.
problem Modeling time series with strong temporal dependencies.
method Probabilistic framework with state-space approach and multi-lag N-VAR model.
result D-NMF outperforms static NMF and other state-of-the-art methods.
ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.
problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.
New approach to concentration inequalities for unbounded state space dynamical systems.
problem Concentration inequalities for unbounded state space dynamical systems.
method Functional analytic framework, transport-entropy inequality.
result Exponential concentration inequalities for sampling from stationary distribution.
Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.
problem Decentralized counterfactual reasoning in coupled industrial systems with private data.
method Federated causal representation learning in state-space systems.
result Proves convergence to centralized oracle and provides privacy guarantees.
Graph Kalman filters adapt classical filters to graph data.
problem Adapting classical Kalman filters to graph data.
method Generalizes Kalman filters to attributed graphs, learning state-transition and readout functions end-to-end.
result Adapted Kalman filters can predict graph outputs.
DSSM separates domain-invariant dynamics from domain-specifics in sequential data.
problem Learning cross-domain sequence representations from diverse data domains.
method Introduce disentangled state space models (DSSM) using unsupervised VAE-based training.
result Improves knowledge transfer and robust prediction across domains.
From social networks to Internet applications, a wide variety of electronic communication tools are producing streams of graph data; where the nodes represent users and the edges represent the contacts between them over time. This has led to an increased interest in mechanisms to model the dynamic structure of time-var…
Recurrent Neural Processes model time series with conditional independence to capture slow variabilities efficiently.
problem Modeling time series data with slow long-term variabilities efficiently.
method Recurrent Neural Processes (RNP) model state space with conditional independence among subsequences.
result RNP state spaces improve predictive performance on real-world time-series data and nonlinear system identification.
We prove a conjecture about approximating Gaussian Processes on one dimension.
problem Computational scaling issues with Gaussian Processes on one dimension.
method Developed a new family of state-space models (LEG) to approximate any stationary GP on one dimension.
result Proved that any stationary GP on one dimension can be approximated using the LEG family.
Combines pseudo-point and state space approximations for scalable GPs.
problem Handling large numbers of off-the-grid spatial data-points and long time-series.
method Combines pseudo-point approximations for spatial data with state space GP approximations for temporal data.
result Combined approach is more scalable and applicable to a greater range of spatio-temporal problems.
Bayesian PA regression improves prediction and hyperparameter tuning.
problem Limited model uncertainty and hyperparameter sensitivity in PA learning.
method Bayesian state-space interpretation and variational inference.
result Significantly better performance than linear Gaussian model.
Developed a method to estimate PLRNNs from neural data, revealing dynamics of working memory.
problem Reconstructing neural dynamics from experimental data for computational analysis.
method Semi-analytical maximum-likelihood estimation using state space models.
result 5-state PLRNN model captures essential working memory dynamics.
A new Fourier model improves ODE prediction.
problem Improving the accuracy of ODE solutions, especially for periodic functions.
method Constructing a Fourier state space model and a hybrid model combining Taylor and Fourier methods.
result The hybrid model can predict ODE solutions more accurately, especially for periodic functions.
Study uses a bivariate model to price crude oil futures.
problem Pricing crude oil futures using latent factors and state-space models.
method Modelled short and long term factors as OU processes, estimated using Kalman Filter and maximised Gaussian likelihood.
result Successfully estimated model parameters and factors from WTI Crude Oil NYMEX futures data.
New framework improves sample efficiency and robustness in RL with smooth policies.
problem Sample inefficiency and lack of robustness in deep reinforcement learning.
method SR^2L framework, smoothness-inducing regularization.
result Improved sample efficiency and robustness in both on-policy and off-policy RL algorithms.
Kernel Bayesian inference with faster regularization for state-space filtering.
problem Nonlinear state-space filtering problems.
method Posterior regularization framework based on RKHS embedding.
result Faster and comparable performance to squared regularization, with consistency analysis.
MambaStock predicts stock prices with high accuracy using a state space model.
problem Inaccurate stock price predictions due to nonlinearity in stock market data.
method Mamba-based state space model with selection mechanism and scan module.
result MambaStock outperforms previous methods in stock price prediction accuracy.