We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that, reciprocally…
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48 results for “state dependence”
State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.
problem Understanding probabilistic dependencies in state-space systems.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework and proving sufficient conditions for output existence and uniqueness.
result State-space systems can generate probabilistic dependencies, even without functional relations.
A Hawkes process with state-dependent factor models order flows in limit order books.
problem Modeling order flows in limit order books for better market prediction.
method A Hawkes process with a state-dependent factor for conditional intensity estimation.
result State-dependent formulations improve the fit of LOB models to financial data.
Study of SGD with state-dependent noise, improving escape from local minima.
problem Understanding and improving the dynamics of SGD in non-convex optimization.
method Formal study on SGD with state-dependent noise, proposing power-law dynamic with state-dependent diffusion.
result Power-law dynamic can escape from sharp minima exponentially faster than flat minima.
Proposes a new framework for optimizing utility with state-dependent benchmarks.
problem Various interpretations of benchmarks in utility functions.
method General framework of state-dependent utility optimization with stochastic benchmarks.
result Provides optimal solutions and addresses issues of well-definedness and feasibility.
Unique optimal strategy identified for state-dependent risk aversion.
problem Consistency of optimal portfolio choice for varying risk aversion.
method Analysis of state-dependent exponential utilities in arbitrage-free markets.
result Uniqueness of optimal strategy across any time horizon.
Study controlled contagion with state-dependent killing, proving a comparison principle.
problem Analyzing controlled McKean--Vlasov contagion with state-dependent killing.
method Proof of a comparison principle using Wasserstein smooth-gauge comparison and killing-jump absorption estimates.
result Established a comparison principle for the two-population killed-particle HJB.
We consider reinforcement learning in input-driven environments, where an exogenous, stochastic input process affects the dynamics of the system. Input processes arise in many applications, including queuing systems, robotics control with disturbances, and object tracking. Since the state dynamics and rewards depend on…
We study the dependence structure of market states by estimating empirical pairwise copulas of daily stock returns. We consider both original returns, which exhibit time-varying trends and volatilities, as well as locally normalized ones, where the non-stationarity has been removed. The empirical pairwise copula for ea…
In a dual risk model, the premiums are considered as the costs and the claims are regarded as the profits. The surplus can be interpreted as the wealth of a venture capital, whose profits depend on research and development. In most of the existing literature of dual risk models, the profits follow the compound Poisson …
Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.
problem Estimating dependent parameters from a hidden Markov model.
method Developed a novel non-parametric shrinkage algorithm combining Tweedie-based ideas and efficient state estimation.
result Superior performance compared to non-shrinkage methods in hidden Markov models.
Policy gradient methods are a widely used class of model-free reinforcement learning algorithms where a state-dependent baseline is used to reduce gradient estimator variance. Several recent papers extend the baseline to depend on both the state and action and suggest that this significantly reduces variance and improv…
Direct approach for handling contextual bandits with latent state dynamics.
problem Handling contextual bandits with latent state dynamics, especially when rewards depend on posterior probabilities of hidden states.
method Direct reduction to standard linear contextual bandits, extended analysis of HMM parameters, periodic update of reward-model parameters.
result Periodic update of reward-model parameters allows handling complex dependencies in hidden states.
New model captures state-dependent variability in partially observed systems.
problem Structured stochasticity not captured by constant-variance models.
method State-coupled stochastic volatility framework with particle expectation-maximization.
result Model consistently reduces recovery bias under partial observation.
Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy …
The paper defines and characterizes conditional nonlinear expectations.
problem Defining and characterizing conditional nonlinear expectations.
method Embedding in decision theory, using state-dependent preferences, and continuous utility representation.
result Consistent backward conditional projections are characterized by the Sure-Thing Principle.
Theory integrates loss aversion into expected utility for monetary returns.
problem Modeling loss aversion in expected utility theory.
method Develops state-dependent linear utility functions incorporating loss aversion.
result Contracts from monopolists in insurance markets.
A framework combining HSMM and survival analysis for lifecycle-oriented mobility analysis.
problem Understanding individual metro usage dynamics over multi-year horizons.
method A state-based lifecycle modeling framework integrating HSMM and discrete-time survival analysis.
result Identification of interpretable mobility states, transition dynamics, and state-dependent exit and re-entry processes.
A new RNN model tackles long-time dependencies with fast, invertible, and memory-efficient hidden states.
problem Challenges in processing sequential inputs with long-time dependencies in RNNs.
method A novel RNN architecture based on a Hamiltonian system of oscillators.
result The proposed RNN mitigates exploding and vanishing gradient problems, providing state-of-the-art performance.
This paper improves credit risk analysis by incorporating state-dependent recovery rates into a factor model.
problem Accurate default forecasting in credit risk analysis.
method Extends a one-factor Gaussian copula model to include state-dependent recovery rates and a common factor.
result The proposed model outperforms other models in default prediction, especially during hectic periods.
Study efficient algorithms for nonconvex optimization with state-dependent Markov data.
problem Stochastic optimization with Markovian data and state-dependent transition kernels.
method Projection-based and projection-free algorithms for constrained nonconvex problems.
result The number of oracle calls to achieve an -stationary point is .
Despite its potential to improve sample complexity versus model-free approaches, model-based reinforcement learning can fail catastrophically if the model is inaccurate. An algorithm should ideally be able to trust an imperfect model over a reasonably long planning horizon, and only rely on model-free updates when the …
In this paper, we consider the asset-liability management under the mean-variance criterion. The financial market consists of a risk-free bond and a stock whose price process is modeled by a geometric Brownian motion. The liability of the investor is uncontrollable and is modeled by another geometric Brownian motion. W…
Structured state space models improve ECG classification and reveal new insights.
problem Improving ECG analysis through deep learning.
method Applying structured state space models to capture long-term dependencies in ECG data.
result SSMs lead to significant improvements in ECG classification over current state-of-the-art.
New invariant for tied links connects states without resolution dependence.
problem Understanding the Kauffman-like states for tied links.
method Defined Aicardi-Juyumaya states and showed their contribution to the invariant is independent of resolution.
result The double bracket of a tied link diagram can be computed and used to find linked but differently polynomial tied links.
On absence of steady state in the Bouchaud-Mézard network modelcond-mat.stat-mech
In the limit of infinite number of nodes (agents), the Itô-reduced Bouchaud-Mézard network model of economic exchange has a time-independent mean and a steady-state inverse gamma distribution. We show that for a finite number of nodes the mean is actually distributed as a time-dependent lognormal and inverse gamma is q…
Optimizes electric field to control molecule states in Hartree-Fock theory.
problem Optimizing electric field to drive molecule from initial to target state.
method Trust region optimization with gradients from adjoint state method.
result Achieves desired target states with minimal control effort.
Paper models non-linear dynamics from time series data.
problem Modeling non-linear dynamical systems from time series data.
method Introduces latent state modeling and a novel alternating minimization algorithm.
result LaNoLem achieves competitive performance in dynamics estimation and prediction.
Interactions such as double negation in sentences and scene interactions in images are common forms of complex dependencies captured by state-of-the-art machine learning models. We propose Mahé, a novel approach to provide Model-agnostic hierarchical éxplanations of how powerful machine learning models, such as deep ne…
Transitions between quasi-stationary states in traffic systems: Cologne orbital motorways as an examplephysics.soc-ph
Study identifies transitions between traffic modes on Cologne motorways.
problem Understanding transitions between different traffic modes.
method Constructed state transition network, identified dominant states using PageRank algorithm.
result Identified seasonal dependence in traffic modes.
We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.
problem Estimating failure probabilities in safety-critical autonomous systems is challenging due to the rarity of failures and large state spaces.
method We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that minimizes forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and uses Markov score ascent methods.
result Our method provides more accurate failure probability estimates than existing techniques.
The paper solves a consumption-investment problem with state-dependent lower bounds.
problem A life-time consumption-investment problem with a state-dependent lower bound on consumption.
method Transformed the problem into a state-independent control problem to apply standard theory.
result Explicit optimal strategies provided for both homogeneous and non-homogeneous constraints.
Robust feature-weighted jump models for time-dependent clustering
problem Temporal clustering
method Robust feature-weighted jump model
result Accurate recovery of true cluster sequence and feature identification
Develops new Markov processes with switching rates and past dependence.
problem Modeling processes with dynamic switching rates and path dependence.
method Introduces a new class of Markov jump processes with regime switching and path dependence. Derives distributional properties and maximum likelihood estimates.
result Maximum likelihood estimates of the process parameters are derived in closed form and have asymptotic normality.
Distributed strategic learning has been getting attention in recent years. As systems become distributed finding Nash equilibria in a distributed fashion is becoming more important for various applications. In this paper, we develop a distributed strategic learning framework for seeking Nash equilibria under stochastic…
The paper proposes a machine learning approach for state-dependent asset allocation.
problem Market conditions cause performance deviations from long-term averages.
method Analyzes historical market states and asset returns to directly relate state variables to portfolio weights.
result The proposed approach generates a more efficient portfolio compared to traditional methods.
Quantum neural networks need both data-dependent and trainable unitaries for effective geometric deformation.
problem Quantum neural networks lack the geometric flexibility of classical networks due to limitations in state reachability.
method Viewing quantum states as embedded manifolds, we analyze infinitesimal unitary actions and introduce the CLA maps and aCLS criterion.
result Geometric flexibility in quantum neural networks requires a joint dependence on data and trainable weights.
New RNN model handles long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series.
problem Handling long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series data.
method Designing ODE-LSTMs that separate memory from continuous-time state.
result ODE-LSTMs outperform other RNN-based models on non-uniformly sampled data with long-term dependencies.
The paper tackles reward-relevance in offline RL with sparse decision dynamics.
problem Offline reinforcement learning with sparse decision dynamics and estimation sparsity.
method Reward-filtered least-squares policy evaluation using thresholded lasso.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees with sample complexity dependent on sparse component size.
We propose a method for non-projective dependency parsing by incrementally predicting a set of edges. Since the edges do not have a pre-specified order, we propose a set-based learning method. Our method blends graph, transition, and easy-first parsing, including a prior state of the parser as a special case. The propo…
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and a…
On the Curses of Future and History in Future-dependent Value Functions for Off-policy Evaluationcs.LG
Study on future-dependent value functions for off-policy evaluation in complex environments.
problem Exponential dependence on horizon in off-policy evaluation for complex observations.
method Developed novel coverage assumptions for POMDPs to achieve polynomial bounds.
result Achieved polynomial bounds on previously exponential quantities, improving off-policy evaluation.
Develops a new method to discover causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships from observational data, especially for nonstationary time series.
method State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for conditionally stationary time series.
result SDCI can recover underlying causal dependencies with provable identifiability for state-dependent causal structures.
Develops a new reinforcement learning framework for complex control problems.
problem Continuous-time extended mean field control with deterministic policies.
method Model-free sensitivity formula, deterministic policy gradient, local value and advantage-rate representations.
result Demonstrates efficiency, stability, and robustness in solving complex control problems.
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is normally used in recurrent neural network (RNN) as basic recurrent unit. However,conventional LSTM assumes that the state at current time step depends on previous time step. This assumption constraints the time dependency modeling capability. In this study, we propose a new variation of…
The paper extends intensity models for limit order books using marked point processes.
problem Modeling intensity ratios in limit order books with state dependency and clustering.
method Developed a new model combining three multiplicative components for marked point processes.
result The new model outperforms other intensity-based methods in predicting market order signs and aggressiveness.
The paper introduces a new volatility model for state heterogeneous financial markets using high-frequency data.
problem State heterogeneity in financial volatility processes.
method Developed a state heterogeneous GARCH-Ito (SG-Ito) model based on continuous Ito diffusion process.
result Empirical studies reveal various state heterogeneities in S&P 500 index volatility.
The paper analyzes fill probabilities in limit order books with varying price levels.
problem Determining the likelihood of limit orders being executed in a limit order book.
method Developed a state-dependent stochastic framework to model limit order book dynamics.
result Derived semi-analytical expressions for fill probabilities and mid-price changes.