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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for startup evaluation

This paper evaluates investment risks in LATAM AI startups using DCF method.

problem Unique challenges and risks faced by LATAM tech startups.
method Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) metrics; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method.
result Developed a ranking of emerging powers in Latin America for tech startup investment.

YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.

problem Difficult forecasting of startup success due to sparse meaningful outcomes and slow evaluation cycles.
method Developed a live benchmark using publicly available traction signals and web visibility metrics.
result Revealed 6 out of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day with a simple proxy for prior brand recognition.

Business cycles affect startup valuations, both directly and indirectly.

problem How do business cycles impact startup valuations?
method Structural Equation Model approach using a dataset of 1,089 venture capital investments.
result Business cycles impact startup valuations both directly and indirectly.

Study predicts startup outcomes like funding, patenting, IPOs using machine learning.

problem Forecasting startup success metrics like funding, patenting, IPOs.
method Developed interpretable machine learning framework, used preprocessing, class imbalance handling, and compared multiple models.
result Achieved high AUROC values for patent, funding, and exit predictions.

Thanks to the recent availability of comprehensive and detailed online databases of startup companies, it has become possible to more directly investigate startup ecosystems i.e. startup populations in specific regions. In this paper, we analyze the emergence of 20+ such ecosystems in Europe and the USA, with a specifi…

2019-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Enhances VC startup success predictions using graph augmented time series models.

problem Challenges in predicting startup success due to limited financial data and subjective forecasts.
method Integrates inter-company relationships into time series analysis using GraphRAG.
result Significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions.

In the domain of technology startups, biotechnology has often been considered as specific. Their unique technology content, the type of founders and managers they have, the amount of venture capital they raise, the time it takes them to reach an exit as well as the technology clusters they belong to are seen as such un…

2018-04-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Study evaluates early-stage cybersecurity firms' performance using Crunchbase data.

problem Assessing performance of early-stage cybersecurity startups.
method Empirical analysis of 19 cybersecurity sectors using Crunchbase data.
result Significant variations in capital raised and post-money valuations across cybersecurity sectors.

Designed to compete with fiat currencies, bitcoin proposes it is a crypto-currency alternative. Bitcoin makes a number of false claims, including: solving the double-spending problem is a good thing; bitcoin can be a reserve currency for banking; hoarding equals saving, and that we should believe bitcoin can expand by …

2013-12-07abs ↗pdf ↗

PHBench predicts Series A funding from Product Hunt launch signals with 7.8% accuracy.

problem Predicting startup Series A funding from launch signals on Product Hunt.
method Constructed PHBench from 67,292 Product Hunt posts, linked to funding records, and used a three-component ensemble model.
result Best-performing model achieved F0.5 = 0.097 and AP = 0.037, with a statistically significant advantage over logistic regression.

We analyze the sectoral dynamics of startup venture financing. Based on a dataset of 52000 start-ups and 110000 funding rounds in the United States from 2000 to 2017, and by applying both Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Tensor Component Analysis (TCA) in sector space, we visualize and measure the evolution of th…

2019-06-05abs ↗pdf ↗

A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders, such as startups using ICOs to raise funding, is managing their FX risk. Specifically, a misinformed decision to convert Bitcoin to fiat currency could, by itself, cost USD millions. In contrast to financial exchanges, Blockchain based crypto-currencies expose the ent…

2018-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Safe offline RL for chemical reactors using input convex neural networks.

problem Safe control of exothermic polymerization reactors using historical data.
method Gymnasium-compatible simulation, behaviour cloning, implicit Q-learning, input convex neural networks (PICNNs).
result Offline RL with convex action correction outperforms traditional control approaches.

This research examines relationship between staging of Venture Capital (VC) investments and social feedback visible in publicly available data on the Web. We address the question of Venture Capital investment sensitivity to performance and prospects of new venture, given as likelihood of obtaining future financing, ava…

2012-12-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Nowadays with a growing number of online controlling systems in the organization and also a high demand of monitoring and stats facilities that uses data streams to log and control their subsystems, data stream mining becomes more and more vital. Hoeffding Trees (also called Very Fast Decision Trees a.k.a. VFDT) as a B…

2019-02-10abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes game theory in convertible contracts during liquidity events.

problem Optimizing payments in convertible contracts during liquidity events.
method Defined a general model for games, showed non-existence of pure strategy Nash equilibria, developed algorithms for computing equilibria.
result Optimum pure strategy Nash equilibria exist when all contracts are of the same type (SAFE).

Sparse regression models CMs from oscillatory shear data efficiently.

problem Discovering parsimonious constitutive models from oscillatory shear experiments.
method Sparse regression with tensor basis functions, l1 regularization, and greedy two-stage algorithm.
result Inferred CMs extrapolate well beyond training data and flow conditions.

LeanML reduces machine learning project waste by estimating best performance without training models.

problem Avoidable wastes in machine learning projects.
method Lean design pattern based on mutual information and performance metrics.
result Estimating best performance without training models is faster and cheaper.

Geoeconomic analysis of venture capital portfolios reveals key emerging tech domains and countries.

problem Quantifying geoeconomic power and technological sovereignty through venture capital data.
method Economic complexity methods applied to venture capital portfolios and RVA metrics.
result Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity Tools, and Medtech have the highest concentration of specialization among high-GCI countries.

Develops a method to evaluate OPE robustness to hyperparameters and policies.

problem Difficulty in selecting and tuning OPE estimators due to limited experimental evaluations.
method Introduces IEOE (Interpretable Evaluation for Offline Evaluation) to assess robustness.
result Demonstrates improved evaluation of OPE estimators' reliability.

This paper evaluates and validates cluster results using external and internal evaluation methods.

problem Evaluating and validating the quality of clustering results.
method External evaluation using Homogeneity, Correctness, and V-measure scores; internal evaluation using Silhouette Index and Sum of Square Errors.
result Validation of the number of clusters using dendrogram and statistical frequency distribution.

Optimizes crowdsourced preference-based subjective evaluation with online learning.

problem Large-scale evaluation of generative media using crowdsourcing due to combinatorial explosion.
method Automatic optimization of pair combination selections and evaluation volumes with online learning.
result Optimizes evaluation by reducing pair combinations and allocating optimal evaluation volumes.

Our research extends the Bilingual Evaluation Understudy (BLEU) evaluation technique for statistical machine translation to make it more adjustable and robust. We intend to adapt it to resemble human evaluation more. We perform experiments to evaluate the performance of our technique against the primary existing evalua…

2015-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds AUC is most consistent across different prevalence in binary classification.

problem Consistency of model evaluation metrics across varying prevalence in binary classification.
method Analysis of 156 data scenarios with 18 metrics, 5 models, and a random guess model.
result AUC has the smallest variance in evaluating individual models and ranking of models.

Cramming method evaluates learned policies from contextual bandits efficiently.

problem Evaluating final learned policies from contextual bandit algorithms.
method On-policy evaluation using a single pass of data, ensuring consistency and asymptotic normality.
result Cramming method reduces evaluation standard error by approximately 40% compared to off-policy methods.

Cer-Eval saves LLM evaluation costs while maintaining accuracy.

problem Challenges in evaluating large language models due to large dataset requirements.
method Adapts to different evaluation objectives, uses test sample complexity, and develops a partition-based algorithm.
result Cer-Eval can save 20-40% test points with comparable accuracy and 95% confidence guarantee.

The study addresses biases in evaluating molecular optimization methods and proposes methods to reduce these biases.

problem Biases in in silico evaluation of molecular optimization methods.
method Discussion and empirical investigation of bias reduction methods for predictor misspecification and sample reuse.
result Empirical investigation of bias reduction methods for predictor misspecification and sample reuse.