The paper proposes a method to stabilize predictions by identifying causal variables using a seed variable.
problem Stable prediction across unknown test data with potential spurious correlations.
method Conditional independence test based algorithm using a seed variable to separate causal from non-causal variables.
result The algorithm precisely separates causal and non-causal variables for stable prediction across test data.
Proposes BSSP to stabilize predictions in biased data.
problem Distribution shift between training and test data causes prediction instability.
method Balance-subsampled stable prediction (BSSP) algorithm based on fractional factorial design.
result Significantly improves prediction stability across unknown test data.
In many important machine learning applications, the training distribution used to learn a probabilistic classifier differs from the testing distribution on which the classifier will be used to make predictions. Traditional methods correct the distribution shift by reweighting the training data with the ratio of the de…
Stable health predictions need deconfounding test set features.
problem Stability of predictions in health machine learning is compromised by selection biases.
method Deconfounding the test set features improves prediction stability across different environments.
result Improved stability achieved by deconfounding test set features.
Improved CFR achieves faster convergence to Nash equilibrium.
problem Theoretical slow convergence rate of CFR algorithms.
method Combining predictive and stable regret minimizers within CFR.
result Achieves O(T−3/4) convergence rate, faster than O(T−1/2). A new method for faster prediction in distributed Gaussian processes.
problem Inefficient aggregation of distributed Gaussian processes with correlations.
method Proposes a novel approach for aggregated prediction in distributed GPs that incorporates correlations among experts.
result Results in more stable predictions in less time compared to state-of-the-art methods.
To date, the instability of prognostic predictors in a sparse high dimensional model, which hinders their clinical adoption, has received little attention. Stable prediction is often overlooked in favour of performance. Yet, stability prevails as key when adopting models in critical areas as healthcare. Our study propo…
Two prediction models improve supply-demand forecasting for autonomous vehicles.
problem Improving accuracy and stability of supply-demand predictions for autonomous vehicles.
method Two prediction models based on residual network, LSTM, attention mechanism, and multi-attention mechanism.
result Our frameworks provide more accurate and stable prediction results than existing methods.
Overwhelming majority of econometric models applied on a long term basis in the financial forex market do not work sufficiently well. The reason is that transaction costs and arbitrage opportunity are not included, as this does not simulate the real financial markets. Analyses are not conducted on the non equidistant d…
Bayesian Invariant Prediction models stable features from multi-environment data.
problem Analyzing stable features across multiple environments for better prediction and understanding.
method Developed Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP) model that encodes invariant feature indices as latent variables and infers them via posterior inference.
result BIP and its variational approximation (VI-BIP) outperform existing methods in accuracy and scalability for invariant prediction.
New method provides formal uncertainty guarantees for image classifiers.
problem Uncertainty quantification for image classifiers without formal guarantees.
method Adapts conformal prediction to give stable, formal coverage guarantees.
result Method outperforms existing approaches in coverage and set size.
This research evaluates neural network robustness through loss visualization and a new metric.
problem Neural networks' robustness property is insufficiently investigated compared to adversarial attacks and defenses.
method Loss visualization and a new robustness metric to evaluate model stability.
result The proposed robustness metric provides a more reliable evaluation of model stability, uniformed across different models and settings.
Thermalizer stabilizes autoregressive models for long-term predictions in chaotic systems.
problem Long-term predictions in chaotic spatiotemporal systems are unreliable due to trajectory divergence.
method Diffusion models are used to implicitly estimate the score of an invariant measure, which stabilizes autoregressive emulators by applying denoising during inference.
result Thermalization extends the time horizon of stable predictions by an order of magnitude in chaotic systems.
A2I Transformer predicts atom energies from coordinates, avoiding heavy featurization.
problem Efficiently predicting atom energies from molecular coordinates with minimal featurization.
method End-to-end model using self-attention, permutation-equivariant.
result Stable predictions with significantly smaller errors than molecular dynamics simulations.
Stable long-term predictions for fluid flows using neural networks.
problem Predicting complex dynamics of fluid flows with high temporal stability.
method End-to-end trained neural network architecture combining CNN for spatial compression and LSTM for temporal prediction.
result Novel latent space subdivision (LSS) allows stable and controllable long-term predictions.
A method to stabilize radiomics data for better cancer prediction.
problem Inconsistent performance of standard machine learning in radiomics data.
method Two-stage maximum-likelihood approach projecting high-dimensional data to a lower-dimensional latent-feature space.
result The method produces stable features that improve classifier performance.
Automates PDE model reduction with time-scale separation.
problem Computational expense in solving high-dimensional PDEs.
method Combines autoencoder and time-continuous model for latent dynamics.
result Automatically learns independent temporal scales in complex systems.
Improves prediction stability with model misspecification and distribution shift.
problem Inaccurate parameter estimation and instability of prediction in real-world applications.
method Proposes Decorrelated Weighting Regression (DWR) algorithm to optimize weights for samples and variables.
result Significantly improves accuracy of parameter estimation and prediction stability.
The paper proposes a method to create domain-invariant representations using Wasserstein distance.
problem Domain shifts in training data affect machine learning model performance across different domains.
method The method combines classification/regression losses with a GAN-type discriminator to minimize the Wasserstein distance between domains.
result The approach produces the highest minimum classification accuracy and most invariant representation across domains.
Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.
problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.
New method offsets DML's error-compounding issue and provides more stable causal parameter estimates.
problem Estimating ATE from observational data with robustness and stability.
method Robust Causal Learning (RCL) method to offset DML's deficiencies.
result RCL estimators are more stable and perform better than DML and traditional estimators.
Study predicts configurational energy of high entropy alloys using Bayesian methods.
problem Accurately predict the configurational energy of high entropy alloys with limited data.
method Robust data-driven framework based on Bayesian approaches, including effective pair interaction (EPI) model and ensemble sampling.
result Effective prediction of configurational energy with small data, demonstrating robust performance.
This paper improves SVM prediction uncertainty quantification methods.
problem Lack of comprehensive UQ methods for SVM predictions.
method Developed SSVQR model for sparse PI estimation and feature selection algorithm.
result Proposed SSVQR model achieves sparse solutions and improves PI quality.
Method predicts disease outbreaks using search logs, overcoming instability.
problem Predicting disease outbreaks from search logs is challenging due to short-term and long-term instability.
method Seasonal-adjustment method decomposes logs into seasonal, trend, and irregular components; feature selection method selects relevant search terms.
result Proposed method outperforms comparative methods in prediction accuracy for seven of ten diseases.