Paper proposes a new test to detect spurious seasonality in time series data.
problem Detecting spurious seasonality in time series data.
method Developed a non-parametric test based on ordinal patterns using symbolic dynamics.
result The day-of-the-week effect is partly an artifact of hidden correlation structure.
Framework isolates causal effects from time series data, improving accuracy under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.
problem Causal inference in non-stationary, autocorrelated time series data.
method Decomposes time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components; performs component-specific causal analysis.
result Framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, especially under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.
ST-MTM models complex time series by decomposing and masking seasonal and trend components.
problem Forecasting complex time series with intricate temporal variations.
method Seasonal-Trend Decomposition with Masking and Contrastive Learning.
result ST-MTM achieves superior forecasting performance compared to existing methods.
Novel algorithm SAODE improves high-dimensional stream classification in seasonal data.
problem Handling seasonal concept drift in high-dimensional stream classification.
method SAODE classifier that includes time as a super parent to handle seasonal drift.
result SAODE consistently outperforms other methods in stream and concept drift classification.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
problem Forecasting time series with both short-term and long-term seasonality is challenging.
method Two-stage method: first generalizes ARMA model for multiple seasonality, second selects lag order.
result Method outperforms `Facebook Prophet` model in predictive performance.
New model learns relative importance of multiple seasonal patterns in time series data.
problem Complex seasonal patterns in business time series data.
method Mixed hierarchical seasonality (MHS) model using Stan.
result Significant improvements in prediction error and predictive density compared to existing models.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Modeling seasonal and Samuelson effects in agricultural futures markets.
problem Understanding volatility patterns in agricultural futures markets.
method Multi-factor stochastic volatility model incorporating seasonality and Samuelson effect.
result Seasonal model significantly outperforms non-seasonal model in all markets.
Removing spurious features can hurt model accuracy and disproportionately affect different groups.
problem Interference from spurious features in robust model performance across different groups.
method Characterization and analysis of spurious feature removal in noiseless overparameterized linear regression.
result Removal of spurious features can decrease accuracy and disproportionately affect different groups, even in balanced datasets.
SGD quickly learns a spurious XOR feature before the signal feature, revealing learning dynamics.
problem Over-reliance on spurious correlations in neural networks trained by SGD.
method Theoretical analysis of SGD on two-layer ReLU networks trained on XOR data.
result SGD learns the spurious feature first and exponentially fast, dominating the signal feature.
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return vo…
This research examines rare spurious correlations in neural networks and their impact on accuracy and privacy.
problem Rare spurious correlations in neural networks and their privacy risks.
method Introducing spurious patterns correlated with a fixed class to a few training examples, analyzing ℓ2 regularization and Gaussian noise. result Rare spurious correlations can significantly impact neural network accuracy and privacy, and specific mitigation methods can be effective.
LSTM-MSNet forecasts time series with multiple seasonal patterns using a unified model.
problem Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal cycles.
method Decomposition-based, unified prediction framework using LSTM.
result LSTM-MSNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various datasets.
RobustSTL decomposes time series robustly to detect anomalies and forecast.
problem Handling complex time series with seasonality fluctuation, trend shifts, and data anomalies.
method RobustSTL uses least absolute deviations regression for trend extraction and non-local seasonal filtering for seasonality extraction.
result RobustSTL outperforms existing solutions in synthetic and real-world time series datasets.
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston volatility process that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. First, we give conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined. These conditions appear to be rather mild. Second, we…
New model detects anomalies robustly in noisy, seasonal multivariate time series.
problem Detecting anomalies in noisy, seasonal multivariate time series data.
method Proposes Robust Seasonal Multivariate Generative Adversarial Network (RSM-GAN).
result Improves robustness and precision in detecting anomalies.
Robust algorithm detects season length without parameters.
problem Automatic detection of season length in time series.
method Interpolating, filtering, detrending followed by autocorrelation analysis.
result Outperforms existing algorithms in practical applications.
Mitigates spurious correlations without bias labels.
problem Spurious correlations bias model performance.
method Introduces a novel training objective and debiasing method DPR.
result DPR achieves state-of-the-art performance.
Modeling daily river flow distribution with seasonal and long-term trends.
problem Capturing both seasonal and gradual long-term changes in environmental variables.
method Distributional regression using GAMLSS framework to estimate daily distribution of river flows.
result Model successfully captures seasonal variation and long-term trends in river flow data.
Complex-valued neural networks avoid spurious local minima.
problem Finding spurious local minima in neural networks.
method Proved no spurious local minima for shallow complex neural networks with quadratic activations.
result Complex-valued weights eliminate spurious local minima in neural networks.
CLIP models robustness to spurious features is re-evaluated using a new dataset.
problem Existing robustness tests of CLIP models may not fully reflect their performance on spurious features.
method Crafted a new dataset (CounterAnimal) to reveal CLIP models' reliance on realistic spurious features.
result CLIP models are robust to spurious features learned from their training data, not ImageNet.
Study identifies and analyzes spurious correlations in data-driven models.
problem Spurious correlations in data-driven models are unreliable and hard to detect.
method Collect and analyze synthetic datasets generated from causal graphs to investigate spurious correlations.
result Patterns connecting spurious correlation hypotheses and model design choices were observed.
Self-training avoids spurious features in domain adaptation.
problem Domain shift with large differences between source and target domains.
method Entropy minimization on unlabeled target data, initialized with a source classifier.
result Entropy minimization avoids using spurious features in large domain shifts.
Deep learning models perform variably across continents/seasons in land cover mapping.
problem Variability in deep learning model performance across different continents/seasons.
method Clustering techniques on satellite imagery from different continents.
result Model performance varies significantly between different continents/seasons.
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
Algorithm removes spurious concepts from neural network representations without harming task performance.
problem Spurious correlations hinder neural network out-of-distribution generalization.
method Iterative algorithm that identifies two orthogonal subspaces in neural network representation.
result Algorithm outperforms existing methods on computer vision and natural language processing benchmarks.
Study combines variational inference and transformers for seasonal climate predictions.
problem Lack of robust seasonal predictions due to limited historical records and computational constraints.
method Combines variational inference with transformer models trained on climate model output.
result Method provides skilful predictions beyond climate change-induced trends in various regions.
A robust algorithm for forecasting vector time series with seasonal components.
problem Forecasting vector time series with seasonal patterns and handling missing data.
method Auto-regression with seasonal annual, weekly, and daily baselines, and a Gaussian process for residuals. Custom truncated eigendecomposition and low-rank plus block-diagonal Gaussian kernel. Schur complement and Tikhonov regularization for efficient inference.
result The model can scale to very large datasets and is efficient in terms of memory and computation.
Spurious valleys hinder optimization in neural networks.
problem Understanding why gradient descent succeeds in non-convex neural network optimization.
method Characterizing topological properties of neural network loss landscapes, focusing on spurious valleys.
result Intrinsic dimension determines the presence or absence of spurious valleys in overparametrized neural networks.
RSM-GAN detects anomalies in noisy, multivariate, seasonal time series.
problem Anomaly detection in complex, noisy multivariate time series with seasonality.
method Convolutional-LSTM layers and attention mechanism in a GAN framework.
result RSM-GAN outperforms existing models in false positive rate and precision.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
Deep linear networks avoid spurious local minima under certain conditions.
problem Existence of spurious local minima in deep linear networks.
method Reduction to two-layer case, quadratic loss analysis, and perturbation argument to show full rank property.
result Deep linear networks have no spurious local minima under specific conditions.
Current OOD benchmarks overestimate model robustness to spurious correlations.
problem Spurious correlations degrade OOD performance, but benchmarks show the opposite.
method Analyze OOD datasets for spurious correlations and derive conditions for robustness.
result Current OOD benchmarks are misspecified and overestimate model robustness.
KEDformer improves long-term time series forecasting with seasonal-trend decomposition.
problem Accurate long-term predictions in energy, finance, and meteorology.
method Knowledge extraction-driven framework integrating seasonal-trend decomposition.
result KEDformer enhances model's ability to capture short-term and long-term patterns.
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Expe…
Robust PCA detects anomalies and fills gaps in seasonal time series data.
problem Anomaly detection and data imputation in seasonal time series.
method Online robust PCA framework for temporal observations.
result Empirically compared and showed effectiveness in practical situations.
Mitigates biases in reward models using variational inference.
problem Spurious correlations in reward models that align large language models with human preferences.
method Formulates data-generating process, identifies non-spurious latent variables, and uses variational inference to recover them.
result Effective mitigation of spurious correlation issues, yielding more robust reward models.
AFR simplifies reducing reliance on spurious features, improving model performance.
problem Reducing reliance on spurious features for out-of-distribution generalization.
method Automatic Feature Reweighting (AFR) updates the model with a weighted loss.
result AFR improves model performance on benchmarks with minimal compute.
This paper explores loss landscapes of sparse neural networks, finding unique characteristics compared to dense networks.
problem Understanding the loss landscape of sparse neural networks, especially one-hidden-layer networks.
method Analyzes sparse networks with dense and sparse final layers, focusing on linear and non-linear models.
result Sparse networks can have no spurious valleys under certain conditions, but spurious valleys and minima can exist for wide sparse networks.
Advanced forecasting models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA for stock market data.
problem Forecasting stock market data with improved accuracy.
method Developed 24 two-parameter families of forecasting functions using a nonparametric approach.
result Our models outperform Holt-Winters and ARIMA in terms of lower sum of absolute errors and higher number of accurate forecasts.
Paper shows moderate RIP is insufficient for avoiding spurious local minima in matrix recovery.
problem The need for moderate RIP to avoid spurious local minima in matrix recovery.
method Analyzes the necessity of RIP constants and provides counterexamples.
result Counterexamples show spurious local minima exist even with moderate RIP.
Riemannian gradient descent escapes some spurious critical points on low-rank matrix manifold.
problem Spurious critical points on the boundary of low-rank matrix manifold.
method Riemannian gradient descent with dynamical low-rank approximation and rescaled gradient flow.
result Riemannian gradient descent escapes some spurious critical points on the boundary of the manifold.
Paper proves conditions for nonconvex matrix recovery to avoid spurious local minima.
problem Ensuring no spurious local minima in nonconvex matrix recovery.
method Sharp restricted isometry bounds proof technique.
result RIP constant of δ < 1/2 is necessary and sufficient for exact recovery.
Last layer retraining improves robustness to spurious correlations without high computational costs.
problem Neural networks can rely on spurious features like backgrounds for predictions.
method Simple last layer retraining on large models.
result Last layer retraining matches or outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on spurious correlation benchmarks.
The paper proves deep ReLU networks avoid spurious local minima in NTK regime.
problem The existence of spurious local minima in deep ReLU neural networks.
method Theoretical proof under Neural Tangent Kernel regime.
result Deep ReLU networks do not lie in spurious local minima in NTK regime.
Logit correction improves model performance by correcting spurious correlations.
problem Spurious correlations lead to poor model performance during inference.
method Proposes logit correction (LC) loss to mitigate spurious correlations.
result LC loss outperforms state-of-the-art solutions by 5.5% absolute improvement.
Unified framework for long-range and cold-start seasonal forecasts.
problem Forecasting seasonal profiles with limited historical data.
method Combining high-dimensional regression and matrix factorization.
result Framework accurately forecasts seasonal profiles on multiple datasets.
Resolves spurious correlations in causal models via intervention design.
problem Spurious correlations lead to incorrect causal models in reinforcement learning environments.
method Proposes a method to design interventions that improve causal models by incentivizing agents to find errors.
result Experimental results show improved causal models compared to baselines.