A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Simulates multi-asset spot and option markets using normalizing flows.
Paper develops new spot regression estimators using candlesticks for asset pricing.
Model simulates Perpetual Futures market with agent behavior.
Improved particle pricing methods for path-dependent options.
We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the anti-correlations are modeled in the same way as in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, i.e. via…
Study compares two factor models for electricity spot prices across different periods.
We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure, decorrelation of moves in different points on the forward curve, and implied volatil…
The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits the correlations structures for the two commodities. The dynamics are based on Or…
Study prices energy derivatives using specific stochastic processes.
Study normal tempered stable processes for energy derivative pricing.
TGARCH model shows CSI-300 futures reduce spot price volatility.
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot prices can be modelled di…
Hybrid models forecast EPEC energy spot prices.
Research forecasts electricity spot prices using stochastic volatility models.
In this paper we introduce a flexible HJM-type framework that allows for consistent modelling of intraday, spot, futures, and option prices. This framework is based on stochastic processes with economic interpretations and consistent with the initial term structure given in the form of a price forward curve. Furthermor…
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
A new model adds stochastic spot/volatility correlation to Heston model for better exotic pricing.
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key characteristics of electricity spot prices such as their link to fuel prices, consumption leve…
Most models for barrier pricing are designed to let a market maker tune the model-implied covariance between moves in the asset spot price and moves in the implied volatility skew. This is often implemented with a local volatility/stochastic volatility mixture model, where the mixture parameter tunes that covariance. T…
We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market using high-frequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small magnitudes. We find intra-day variations in the number and length of arbitrage opportunities, with la…
Study simulates Variance Gamma processes for energy derivatives pricing.
In this paper analytic formulas for electricity derivatives are calculated. To this end, we assume that electricity spot prices follow a 3-regime Markov regime-switching model with independent spikes and drops and periodic transition matrix. Since the classical derivatives pricing methodology cannot be used in case of …
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is…
Consider the problem of pricing options on forwards in energy markets, when spot prices follow a geometric multi-factor model in which several rates of mean reversion appear. In this paper we investigate the role played by slow mean reversion when pricing and hedging options. In particular, we determine both upper and …
Study shows different price correlations in European electricity markets.
Deep Hedging removes drift for cleaner option pricing.
This review classifies electricity price models for risk management.
In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity while trading…
In electricity markets, it is sensible to use a two-factor model with mean reversion for spot prices. One of the factors is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a Brownian motion and accounts for the small variations. The other factor is an OU process driven by a pure jump Lévy process and models the characteri…
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…
We consider a market model that consists of financial investors and producers of a commodity. Producers optionally store some production for future sale and go short on forward contracts to hedge the uncertainty of the future commodity price. Financial investors take positions in these contracts in order to diversify t…
Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price to link storage theory with risk premium.
Study Fourier estimator for spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps.
The paper examines variable annuities pricing and risk management using the Black-Scholes model and identifies key risk drivers.
For a commodity spot price dynamics given by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility, we price forwards using a class of pricing measures that simultaneously allow for change of level and speed in the mean reversion of both the price and the volatility. The risk premium i…
It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper inv…
It is known that the implied volatility skew of FX options demonstrates a stochastic behavior which is called stochastic skew. In this paper we create stochastic skew by assuming the spot/instantaneous variance correlation to be stochastic. Accordingly, we consider a class of SLV models with stochastic correlation wher…
We introduce a new and highly tractable structural model for spot and derivative prices in electricity markets. Using a stochastic model of the bid stack, we translate the demand for power and the prices of generating fuels into electricity spot prices. The stack structure allows for a range of generator efficiencies p…
The paper explains stock predictability by integrating rational finance without behavioral finance assumptions.
The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has two major drawbacks: one is that it is still based on the traditional hourly sche…
GG distribution improves option pricing for negatively skewed spot price distributions.
Paper presents fast methods for pricing energy derivatives using mean-reverting jump-diffusion models.
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
China uses two Renminbi markets to hedge cross-border risks, leading to a price discrepancy.
We derived similar to Bo et al. (2010) results but in the case when the dynamics of the FX rate is driven by a general Merton jump-diffusion process. The main results of our paper are as follows: 1) formulas for the Esscher transform parameters which ensure that the martingale condition for the discounted foreign excha…
A third-order approximation for close-to-the-money European option prices under an infinite-variation CGMY Lévy model is derived, and is then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian component. The asymptotic regime considered, in which the strike is made to converge to the spot stock price as the ma…
Fast probabilistic option price predictions using modular Bayesian inference.