The paper explains how speculative supply and demand amplify financial market fluctuations.
problem The wild fluctuations of financial prices.
method Formally, the paper shows that asset returns follow a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input.
result The theory explains the power-law distribution of returns and related variables.
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel t…
Model shows speculative trading agents create price bubbles with increasing risk of crash.
problem Speculative trading and price bubbles creation.
method Agent-based modeling with adaptive stock-to-bond ratios and risk levels.
result Persistent price bubbles and growing risk of crash.
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differin…
Modeling price impacts and trading signals for optimal execution and speculation.
problem Optimal execution and speculation in markets with trade signals.
method Price impact model driven by order flow, stochastic price impact, Meyer-σ-fields signal process, Marcus-type SDEs. result Derivation and numerical solution of HJB equation for optimal execution, enhanced speculative strategies.
Modeling speculative markets with varying costs of carrying positions.
problem Analyzing the impact of varying costs of carrying positions on speculative markets.
method Continuous-time model with heterogeneous beliefs, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
result Decreasing shorting costs can lead to market collapse and price collapse.
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctu…
Study shows houses appreciated more during pandemic due to speculation, not just price uncertainty.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on house prices and speculation.
method Quasi-experimental design, unit-level matching, multivariate difference-in-difference regression.
result Properties listed for sale appreciated an additional 1% per month after pandemic onset, with an excess annual growth of 12.7 percentage points.
Brokers and an informed trader compete for liquidity, affecting trading costs and inventory risk.
problem How brokers and an informed trader manage liquidity and trading costs.
method Sequential Stackelberg game, solving for trading strategies, numerical solutions.
result Equilibrium strategies and liquidity prices determined, not Pareto efficient.
Game of plates and olives counts Morse functions on a sphere.
problem Counting Morse functions on a sphere.
method Analyzing the game's rules and mapping to Morse functions.
result Confirming the speculation that log M_n ~ n log n.
Analysis of the 2007-8 credit crisis has concentrated on issues of relaxed lending standards, and the perception of irrational behaviour by speculative investors in real estate and other assets. Asset backed securities have been extensively criticised for creating a moral hazard in loan issuance and an associated incre…
This review is about the convenience, the benefits, as well as the destructive capacities of money. It deals with various aspects of money creation, with its value, and its appropriation. All sorts of money tend to get corrupted by eventually creating too much of them. In the long run, this renders money worthless and …
Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.
problem Characterizing speculative bubbles in discrete-time models.
method Introduces a new definition based on discounted stock price behavior and provides probabilistic characterizations.
result Speculative bubbles in discrete time are linked to solutions of a linear Volterra integral equation.
A model of open economics composed of producers and speculators is investigated by numerical simulations. The capital flows from the environment to the producers and from them to the speculators. The price fluctuations are suppressed by the speculators. When the aggressivity of the speculators grows, there is a transit…
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which grant them a positive gain. Indeed the average number of active speculators grows wi…
Agent-based model simulates speculative electronic market with price bubbles.
problem Understanding speculative behavior and price bubbles in electronic markets.
method Agent-based model with two types of traders: mean reverting and speculative.
result Speculative traders lead to increased volatility and price deviations from fundamental value.
Accelerating Speculative Diffusions via Block Verification
problem Adapting speculative decoding for continuous diffusion models
method Introducing a novel speculative sampling mechanism for diffusion models
result Improves acceptance rate and speeds up inference
Extended speculation game improves Hurst exponent of financial time series.
problem Anti-persistent market price behavior resulting in small Hurst exponent.
method Introduced a perturbative part to price change considering additional effects.
result Improved Hurst exponent value of financial time series.
The paper revisits classical competition theory to explain speculative asset price dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of speculative asset prices and their volatility.
method Specialized classical model of competition with reservation prices, incorporating speculation.
result The model explains excess, fat-tailed, and clustered volatility in speculative asset prices.
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…
This paper analyzes speculative decoding, a method to speed up large language model inferences.
problem Theoretical understanding of speculative decoding is lacking.
method Conceptualizes speculative decoding as a markov chain problem and studies its key properties.
result Reveals fundamental connections between LLM components and their impact on decoding efficiency.
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recen…
We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which emphasize the role of fancy and collective behavior. In our conclusion, we propose a…
Adaptive speculative decoding framework for LLMs using bandit algorithms.
problem Adaptive speculative decoding for LLMs to balance speed and quality.
method Formulated as a Multi-Armed Bandit problem, proposed UCBSpec and EXP3Spec algorithms.
result UCBSpec algorithm achieves optimal regret performance up to universal constants.
Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.
problem Generating samples from computationally expensive diffusion models.
method Extending speculative sampling to diffusion models, using fast draft models for candidate token generation.
result Significant speedup in generation, halving the number of function evaluations.
Model explains deleveraging risks in non-custodial stablecoins.
problem Deleveraging risks in non-custodial stablecoins during market crises.
method Developed a stochastic model incorporating speculators' profit optimization and collateral liquidation costs.
result Identified deflationary deleveraging spirals and higher price variance in unstable domains.
Accelerates TPP sampling with speculative decoding for faster sequence generation.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex temporal point processes.
method Adapting speculative decoding techniques from language models to TPPs.
result Achieves significant speedup (2-6x) while maintaining distributional accuracy.
Supply uncertainty leads to inefficient supply chain network formation.
problem How supply uncertainty affects supply chain network structure.
method Modeling a supply chain network with uncertain yield, where retailers and suppliers must form relationships and compete.
result Retailers tend to link to too few suppliers, leading to insufficient diversification of the supply base.
Cactus improves auto-regressive decoding speed without sacrificing quality.
problem Accelerating auto-regressive decoding while maintaining output quality.
method Formalizes speculative sampling as constrained optimization and proposes Cactus for controlled divergence from the verifier distribution.
result Empirically validated effectiveness across various benchmarks.
The object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his "Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse" (Stock Market Sp…
A novel CAB-XDE framework predicts speculative stock prices with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting speculative stock prices in volatile markets.
method Customized attention BiLSTM with XGBoost, integrating attention mechanism and weight determination theory-error reciprocal method.
result Empirically validated with MAPE of 0.0037, MAE of 84.40, and RMSE of 106.14.
Kinetic models predict speculators' strategy can affect market prices.
problem Understanding how speculators' behavior affects market prices in a multi-agent exchange system.
method Developed kinetic equations to model interactions between dealers and speculators, using utility functions and mean quantities.
result Speculators' strategy can drive the price of goods towards a zone with marked utility for their group.
Develops price dynamics equations with symmetric supply/demand functions, affecting tail behavior of price distributions.
problem Understanding the tail behavior of price distributions based on supply and demand functions.
method Created price dynamics equations using a symmetric function of demand/supply, analyzing linear and nonlinear cases.
result The exponent of the tail behavior of price distributions depends on the function of supply and demand, with exponents approaching -1 for large exponents in the function.
GSI improves efficiency of large language model inference.
problem Efficiently guiding test-time alignment in large language models.
method Combines soft best-of-n scaling with a reward model and speculative samples. result Achieves higher accuracy and reduced latency compared to standard methods.
Supply chain resilience depends on balancing competition and self-interest.
problem Maintaining resilience in decentralized supply chains under uncertainty and competition.
method Modeling competitive suppliers and retailers with yield uncertainty and congestion, analyzing network formation.
result Decentralized supply chains can form resilient networks through competition and self-interest, contrary to intuition.
GNNs improve supply chain analytics with real-world benchmarks.
problem Limited research on applying GNNs to supply chain management.
method Conceptual discussions, detailed formulations, examples, mathematical definitions, and task guidelines.
result GNN-based models outperform other methods by 10-40% in various supply chain tasks.
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
problem Booking models ignore supply, leading to regime-specific ceilings.
method Three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention).
result Booking models learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile.
The Nasdaq Composite fell another ≈10 on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corresponds to a total loss of over 35% since its all-time high of 5133 on the 10'th of March 2000. Simil…
Agent optimizes risky asset trading times based on Prospect Theory.
problem Optimizing speculative trading times with transaction costs.
method Formulated as a sequential optimal stopping problem, characterized the solution.
result Trading patterns influenced by preference and market friction.
New game model improves financial stylized facts reproduction.
problem Difficulty in reproducing financial stylized facts.
method Agent-based speculation game with unique features.
result Successfully reproduces 10 out of 11 stylized facts.
Speculation leads to power law price changes.
problem Financial price changes follow a power law distribution.
method Identified speculation as the underlying mechanism.
result Price changes follow a random coefficient autoregressive process.
We introduce the speculate-correct method to derive error bounds for local classifiers. Using it, we show that k nearest neighbor classifiers, in spite of their famously fractured decision boundaries, have exponential error bounds with O(sqrt((k + ln n) / n)) error bound range for n in-sample examples.
Deep-Gap predicts crowdsourcing supply-demand gaps using deep learning.
problem Balancing supply and demand in mobile crowdsourcing.
method Residual learning-based deep neural networks trained on time series data and external factors.
result Deep-Gap achieves lowest forecasting errors compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Study liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges considering risk aversion and replication costs.
problem Economic viability of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Formulated strategic interactions as a sequential game with risk-averse LP, traders, and arbitrageurs.
result DEX liquidity depth is crucial for risk management, influenced by risk aversion and replication costs.
Study tests if deep hedging differs from delta hedging in a GARCH market model.
problem Whether deep hedging includes speculative components in a GARCH market.
method Tested in a GARCH-based market model, comparing deep hedging and delta hedging.
result The difference between deep hedging and delta hedging is speculative if risk measure does not prioritize adverse outcomes.
NFT royalties boost creator earnings by sharing risk, reducing info asymmetry, and enabling price discrimination.
problem NFTs' royalties are criticized for being neutralized by speculators.
method Analyzes NFTs' royalties in various market conditions and their effects on creators.
result Royalties enable creators to capitalize on speculators' presence through risk sharing, info reduction, and price discrimination.
Blockchain and AI improve invoice financing for supply chains.
problem Challenges in invoice financing for upstream suppliers in complex supply chains.
method Combining blockchain and AI technologies to solve financing issues.
result Atomic crosschain functionality enables informed decisions under uncertainty.
We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the investment attitude of other traders. Bubbles and crashes are understood and descr…