A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Accelerating Speculative Diffusions via Block Verification
Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.
Accelerates TPP sampling with speculative decoding for faster sequence generation.
Cactus improves auto-regressive decoding speed without sacrificing quality.
This paper analyzes speculative decoding, a method to speed up large language model inferences.
New method reduces diffusion model function evaluations for discrete data.
We introduce the speculate-correct method to derive error bounds for local classifiers. Using it, we show that k nearest neighbor classifiers, in spite of their famously fractured decision boundaries, have exponential error bounds with O(sqrt((k + ln n) / n)) error bound range for n in-sample examples.
GSI improves efficiency of large language model inference.
Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.
A model of open economics composed of producers and speculators is investigated by numerical simulations. The capital flows from the environment to the producers and from them to the speculators. The price fluctuations are suppressed by the speculators. When the aggressivity of the speculators grows, there is a transit…
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which grant them a positive gain. Indeed the average number of active speculators grows wi…
Agent-based model simulates speculative electronic market with price bubbles.
The paper develops a theory for speculative decoding acceptance criteria.
The paper revisits classical competition theory to explain speculative asset price dynamics.
Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called subprime crisis there is clearly an ur…
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recen…
We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which emphasize the role of fancy and collective behavior. In our conclusion, we propose a…
Adaptive speculative decoding framework for LLMs using bandit algorithms.
The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a divergence from the behavior of real market. The market price of the model tends to be …
The object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his "Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse" (Stock Market Sp…
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differin…
A novel CAB-XDE framework predicts speculative stock prices with high accuracy.
During a stock market peak the price of a given stock () jumps from an initial level to a peak level before falling back to a bottom level . The ratios and are referred to as the peak- and bottom-amplitude respectively. The paper show…
The Nasdaq Composite fell another on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corresponds to a total loss of over 35% since its all-time high of 5133 on the 10'th of March 2000. Simil…
Agent optimizes risky asset trading times based on Prospect Theory.
Study tests if deep hedging differs from delta hedging in a GARCH market model.
NFT royalties boost creator earnings by sharing risk, reducing info asymmetry, and enabling price discrimination.
We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the investment attitude of other traders. Bubbles and crashes are understood and descr…
Study speculative trading using RL with exploratory framework.
This paper models cryptocurrencies using -stable distributions, outperforming other models.
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctu…
The Minority Game is a generic model of competing adaptive agents, which is often believed to be a model of financial markets. We discuss to which extend this is a reasonable statement, and present minimal modifications that make this model reproduce stylized facts. The resulting model shows that without speculators, p…
New risk measure uses Fourier analysis of stock prices.
Model analyzes Proof-of-Stake network dynamics and speculative capital effects on token prices.
The aim of this paper is to propose a heterogeneous agent model of stock markets that develop complicated endogenous price fluctuations. We find occurrences of non-stationary chaos, or speculative bubble, are caused by the heterogeneity of traders' strategies. Furthermore, we show that the distributions of returns gene…
Simultaneous reproduction of all financial stylized facts is so difficult that most existing stochastic process-based and agent-based models are unable to achieve the goal. In this study, by extending the decision-making structure of Minority Game, we propose a novel agent-based model called "Speculation Game," for a b…
Modeling price impacts and trading signals for optimal execution and speculation.
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time…
The paper models cryptocurrency market bubbles using agent-based models.
Modeling high-frequency speculative markets as auction search processes.
We introduce a system of kinetic equations describing an exchange market consisting of two populations of agents (dealers and speculators) expressing the same preferences for two goods, but applying different strategies in their exchanges. We describe the trading of the goods by means of some fundamental rules in price…
What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behavior? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, we approach these topics by exploring the consequences of two simple hypotheses about risk. The first is a common-sense…
This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order Markov process, which after simple transformations can be viewed as a turning two-d…
Brain uses synaptic failure to sample from posterior distributions.
Study shows houses appreciated more during pandemic due to speculation, not just price uncertainty.
This note corrects a mistake in the paper "consistent cross-validatory model-selection for dependent data: -block cross-validation" by Racine (2000). In his paper, he implied that the therein proposed -block cross-validation is consistent in the sense of Shao (1993). To get this intuition, he relied on the spec…
The paper accelerates LLM inference by adding early exit heads trained in a self-supervised manner.
During a speculative episode the price of an item jumps from an initial level p_1 to a peak level p_2 before more or less returning to level p_1. The ratio p_2/p_1 is referred to as the amplitude A of the peak. This paper shows that for a given market the peak amplitude is a linear function of the logarithm of the pric…