Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.
New KCM tests improve specification testing via RKHS.
problem Improving specification tests for econometric models.
method Kernel conditional moment (KCM) tests based on RKHS.
result KCM tests have better finite-sample performance than existing tests.
New method for group testing robust to errors in group membership specifications.
problem Errors in specifying group memberships during group testing.
method Debiased Robust Lasso Test Method (DRLT) based on Lasso debiasing.
result Extends LASSO bias mitigation to handle group membership specification errors.
Study provides selective inference method for latent block models.
problem Challenges in constructing a test on a block structure selected by clustering algorithms.
method Developed a selective inference method for latent block models using squared residue minimization and simulated annealing.
result Proposed tests effectively handle selective bias in block structures compared to naive tests.
Over 150,000 new people in the United States are diagnosed with colorectal cancer each year. Nearly a third die from it (American Cancer Society). The only approved noninvasive diagnosis tools currently involve fecal blood count tests (FOBTs) or stool DNA tests. Fecal blood count tests take only five minutes and are av…
Kernel tests assess equivalence between distributions without assuming specific moments.
problem Traditional goodness-of-fit tests fail to detect meaningful distributional differences.
method Proposes kernel-based tests using kernel Stein discrepancy and Maximum Mean Discrepancy.
result Tests assess the absence of meaningful distributional differences under controlled error rates.
Concolic testing combines program execution and symbolic analysis to explore the execution paths of a software program. This paper presents the first concolic testing approach for Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). More specifically, we formalise coverage criteria for DNNs that have been studied in the literature, and then d…
A new test for conditional independence in discretized data.
problem Testing conditional independence when only discretized observations are available.
method Proposes a conditional independence test designed for discretized observations, using bridge equations to recover latent variables' information.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed test through theoretical and empirical validation.
We propose a novel framework of the model specification test in regression using unlabeled test data. In many cases, we have conducted statistical inferences based on the assumption that we can correctly specify a model. However, it is difficult to confirm whether a model is correctly specified. To overcome this proble…
This work constructs a hypothesis test for detecting whether an data-generating function h:Rp→R belongs to a specific reproducing kernel Hilbert space H0 , where the structure of H0 is only partially known. Utilizing the theory of reproducing kernels, we reduce this hypothesis …
Three bootstrap tests compare categorical time series generating processes.
problem Testing equality of generating processes in categorical time series.
method Proposes three tests using dissimilarity measures and bootstrap methods.
result Advantages and disadvantages of each bootstrap method discussed.
The article explains how to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers using unlabeled data.
problem Estimating sensitivity and specificity of binary medical diagnostic tests without gold standard tests.
method Modifying diagnostic test solutions to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers on unlabeled data.
result The approach can be used to estimate accuracy statistics for supervised or unsupervised binary classifiers on unlabeled data.
Test log-likelihood comparisons can be misleading.
problem Misinterpretation of test log-likelihood in model comparison.
method Simple examples of model comparison and forecast accuracy.
result Test log-likelihood does not always correlate with model accuracy.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a workhorse of probabilistic modeling and inference, but are difficult to debug, and are prone to silent failure if implemented naively. We outline several strategies for testing the correctness of MCMC algorithms. Specifically, we advocate writing code in a modular way, w…
New test identifies specific biological parameters for personalized CVD detection.
problem Ineffectual pathology tests fail to consider platelet activation and inter-individual variability.
method Stochastic platelet deposition model and approximate Bayesian computation with discriminative summary statistics.
result Inferred parameters help identify specific biological parameters for personalized CVD detection.
Neuron-specific dropout reduces overfitting and data needs for neural networks.
problem Overfitting and insufficient training data for deep neural networks.
method Compares training and validation passes of a layer, drops targeted neurons based on feature analysis.
result Achieves similar or better testing accuracy with less data, reducing overfitting.
A keyword spotting (KWS) system determines the existence of, usually predefined, keyword in a continuous speech stream. This paper presents a query-by-example on-device KWS system which is user-specific. The proposed system consists of two main steps: query enrollment and testing. In query enrollment step, phonetic pos…
Universal supervised learning is considered from an information theoretic point of view following the universal prediction approach, see Merhav and Feder (1998). We consider the standard supervised "batch" learning where prediction is done on a test sample once the entire training data is observed, and the individual s…
Nonparametric two sample testing deals with the question of consistently deciding if two distributions are different, given samples from both, without making any parametric assumptions about the form of the distributions. The current literature is split into two kinds of tests - those which are consistent without any a…
New method estimates data influence efficiently by leveraging test samples.
problem Efficiently estimating influence of training data on model predictions.
method Mirrored Influence Hypothesis, forward pass for test samples.
result Significant improvement in efficiency over existing methods.
In this work, we consider hypothesis testing and anomaly detection on datasets where each observation is a weighted network. Examples of such data include brain connectivity networks from fMRI flow data, or word co-occurrence counts for populations of individuals. Current approaches to hypothesis testing for weighted n…
Two-sample tests using MMD control type I error and achieve optimal power.
problem Developing reliable nonparametric two-sample tests for small sample sizes.
method Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for constructing novel nonparametric tests, proving non-asymptotic error control and optimality.
result MMDAgg test controls type I error and achieves minimax rate over Sobolev balls, outperforming other tests.
Information retrieval (IR) systems often leverage query data to suggest relevant items to users. This introduces the possibility of unfairness if the query (i.e., input) and the resulting recommendations unintentionally correlate with latent factors that are protected variables (e.g., race, gender, and age). For instan…
Study improves statistical power for detecting algorithmic bias in educational data.
problem Challenges in measuring algorithmic bias using ABROCA due to skewed distribution.
method Investigates ABROCA's distributional properties and proposes nonparametric randomization tests.
result ABROCA-based bias assessments are underpowered in typical EDM sample sizes.
A common challenge in nonparametric inference is its high computational complexity when data volume is large. In this paper, we develop computationally efficient nonparametric testing by employing a random projection strategy. In the specific kernel ridge regression setup, a simple distance-based test statistic is prop…
Drawing on some recent results that provide the formalism necessary to definite stationarity for infinite random graphs, this paper initiates the study of statistical and learning questions pertaining to these objects. Specifically, a criterion for the existence of a consistent test for complex hypotheses is presented,…
Real-world machine learning applications often have complex test metrics, and may have training and test data that are not identically distributed. Motivated by known connections between complex test metrics and cost-weighted learning, we propose addressing these issues by using a weighted loss function with a standard…
Detects which features have shifted in data distributions.
problem Identifying which specific features have caused a distribution shift.
method Formalizes the problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests, proposes non-parametric and parametric statistical tests, and uses a test statistic based on the density model score function.
result Demonstrates methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have transformed several artificial intelligence research areas including computer vision, speech recognition, and natural language processing. However, recent studies demonstrated that DNNs are vulnerable to adversarial manipulations at testing time. Specifically, suppose we have a testing …
Study tests if input gradients highlight discriminative features, finds they often fail.
problem Validity of assumption that input gradients highlight discriminative features in model predictions.
method Developed DiffROAR framework and BlockMNIST dataset to test assumption on four benchmarks.
result Input gradients of standard models often fail to highlight discriminative features, while robust models do.
TTT improves transformer models for in-context learning.
problem Improving transformer models for efficient in-context learning.
method Gradient-based TTT method for linear transformers, with theoretical and empirical analysis.
result TTT significantly reduces the sample size required for in-context learning.
New method infers viral load from pooled tests.
problem Inefficient viral load inference in pooled testing.
method Message passing algorithm with PCR noise function.
result Accurate viral load inference possible.
Simple methods combine statistical tests for out-of-distribution detection.
problem Detecting data points not following the training distribution.
method Combining classical parametric tests (Rao's score test) and a typicality test.
result Combining Fisher's method of test statistics improves out-of-distribution detection accuracy.
New method tests DAGs without assuming linear or independent data.
problem Testing DAGs with nonlinear and time-dependent data.
method Structural, supervised and generative adversarial learning.
result Asymptotic guarantees for the test, allowing diverging data dimensions.
The PC algorithm allows investigators to estimate a complete partially directed acyclic graph (CPDAG) from a finite dataset, but few groups have investigated strategies for estimating and controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) of the edges in the CPDAG. In this paper, we introduce PC with p-values (PC-p), a fast al…
Meta two-sample testing uses auxiliary data to quickly find powerful tests from limited samples.
problem Challenges in identifying powerful kernels for distinguishing complex distributions with limited data.
method Introduces meta two-sample testing (M2ST) to leverage abundant auxiliary data on related tasks.
result Proposed algorithms improve over baselines and identify powerful tests from scarce observations.
In dynamic selection (DS) techniques, only the most competent classifiers, for the classification of a specific test sample are selected to predict the sample's class labels. The more important step in DES techniques is estimating the competence of the base classifiers for the classification of each specific test sampl…
Financial econometrics has become an increasingly popular research field. In this paper we review a few parametric and nonparametric models and methods used in this area. After introducing several widely used continuous-time and discrete-time models, we study in detail dependence structures of discrete samples, includi…
This paper is about two related decision theoretic problems, nonparametric two-sample testing and independence testing. There is a belief that two recently proposed solutions, based on kernels and distances between pairs of points, behave well in high-dimensional settings. We identify different sources of misconception…
Test-asset construction affects factor model performance.
problem How test assets are constructed impacts factor model performance.
method Forming characteristic-unsorted random portfolios and varying stock selection, initial weighting, holding, and rebalancing.
result Test-asset construction shifts factor model rankings materially.
New research shows testing IIA in discrete choice is nearly impossible with current sample sizes.
problem Testing the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) in discrete choice models is challenging.
method Combinatorial analysis of Eulerian orientations of cycle decompositions of a bipartite graph.
result Any general test for IIA with low worst-case error requires an exponential number of samples in the number of alternatives.
Equivalent tests for SGD batch size selection found.
problem Finding equivalent tests for adaptive batch size selection in SGD.
method Norm and inner product/orthogonality tests equivalence demonstration.
result Norm and inner product/orthogonality tests are equivalent under specific conditions.
Hotelling's T2-test for the mean of a multivariate normal distribution is one of the triumphs of classical multivariate analysis. It is uniformly most powerful among invariant tests, and admissible, proper Bayes, and locally and asymptotically minimax among all tests. Nonetheless, investigators often prefer non-inva…
Risk monitoring detects when TTA models degrade at test time.
problem Detecting when TTA models degrade at test time.
method Extended risk monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of TTA monitoring framework across various datasets and methods.
We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting a shift between the means of two multivariate normal distributions in the high-dimensional setting, allowing for the data dimension p to exceed the sample size n. Specifically, we propose a new test statistic for the two-sample test of means that integrates a rand…
Deep-learning method improves hypothesis testing for independence.
problem Improving hypothesis testing for independence using deep learning.
method Proposes deep-testing, a novel procedure that uses a deep neural network to distinguish between data generated under and outside a given statistical model.
result Deep-testing achieves the highest overall power against nineteen competing methods across various dependence structures.
Early stopping of iterative algorithms is an algorithmic regularization method to avoid over-fitting in estimation and classification. In this paper, we show that early stopping can also be applied to obtain the minimax optimal testing in a general non-parametric setup. Specifically, a Wald-type test statistic is obtai…
Active testing reduces label costs for efficient model evaluation.
problem Real-world applications require expensive test labels, disconnecting from existing model evaluation methods.
method Derives acquisition strategies to select test points efficiently, addressing label bias and variance.
result Active testing improves model evaluation efficiency without sacrificing accuracy.