Conformal Prediction is a machine learning methodology that produces valid prediction regions under mild conditions. In this paper, we explore the application of making predictions over multiple data sources of different sizes without disclosing data between the sources. We propose that each data source applies a trans…
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48 results for “source predictive”
Spatial blind source separation simplifies multivariate spatial prediction.
problem Predicting multivariate measurements at unobserved locations with spatial dependencies.
method Spatial blind source separation as a pre-processing tool compared to Cokriging and neural networks.
result Spatial blind source separation simplifies spatial prediction by avoiding cross-dependencies.
The paper tackles distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-source data.
problem Challenges in achieving valid inferences due to distribution shifts and privacy concerns.
method Derives efficient influence functions, incorporates machine learning, and proposes data-adaptive strategies.
result Achieves parametric rates of convergence to nominal coverage probabilities for prediction intervals.
TASFAR adapts regression models without labeled source data.
problem Lack of labeled source data for domain adaptation.
method Uses prediction confidence to estimate target label distribution and calibrate source model.
result Substantially reduces errors in various regression tasks.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification in multi-source settings.
problem Uncertainty quantification under covariate shift is challenging in multi-source settings.
method The paper addresses this by proposing two extensions of weighted conformal prediction: merge-based aggregation and data-pooling.
result Theoretical guarantees are provided for the proposed approaches, and experiments validate their effectiveness.
Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources that cannot be pooled. We here consider the regression case and propose a method …
sJIVE combines structure and prediction in multi-source data.
problem Analyzing multi-source data with shared and unique structures.
method Supervised Joint and Individual Variation Explained (sJIVE) method.
result sJIVE outperforms existing methods in noisy data.
Unsupervised Domain Adaptation for Binary Classification with an Unobservable Source Subpopulationstat.ML
New method recovers predictions from unobservable source subpopulation in binary classification.
problem Challenging binary classification with unobservable subpopulation in source domain.
method Distribution matching method to estimate subpopulation proportions, rigorous derivation of prediction models.
result Our method outperforms naive benchmarks in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Paper tackles multi-source domain adaptation for regression.
problem Predicting HDL cholesterol levels using gut microbiome data.
method Two-step procedure: 1) Extend a flexible single-source DA algorithm for classification to regression. 2) Augment with ensemble learning for multi-source DA.
result Consistent improvement in HDL cholesterol level prediction performance over existing methods.
In data stream mining, predictive models typically suffer drops in predictive performance due to concept drift. As enough data representing the new concept must be collected for the new concept to be well learnt, the predictive performance of existing models usually takes some time to recover from concept drift. To spe…
New method quantifies redundant information using information bottleneck.
problem Quantifying redundant information among multiple sources.
method Formulated as an information bottleneck problem, termed redundancy bottleneck.
result Extracts information that best predicts the target without revealing source identity.
Study evaluates cross-validation methods for clinical ECG classification, finding leave-source-out more reliable.
problem Overoptimistic cross-validation estimates for new patient sources.
method Empirical evaluation of K-fold and leave-source-out cross-validation methods.
result Leave-source-out cross-validation provides more reliable performance estimates.
Anytime-valid confirmation of label-shift corrections
problem Small-batch scientific deployments with scarce labeled outcomes
method Conditional e-value and martingale-based rule
result Nonnegative martingale and anytime-valid confirmation rule
New approach models computer network activity as mixtures of sources.
problem Malicious activity detection in computer networks using standard algorithms is ineffective.
method Source separation approach to model short-term dynamics of computer network activity.
result Qualitative and quantitative experiments validate the approach.
New findings on representation learning beyond linear functions.
problem Achieving diversity in representation learning beyond linear prediction functions.
method Analysis of eluder dimension and empirical risks.
result Diversity holds even with nonlinear prediction functions and multiple layers in neural networks.
Enhancing Stock Market Prediction with Extended Coupled Hidden Markov Model over Multi-Sourced Dataq-fin.ST
Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some recent works propose event-driven prediction approaches by considering the even…
New method evaluates LLMs fairness in universal prediction.
problem Evaluating fairness of large language models in universal prediction.
method Introducing batch regret as a modification of average regret for LLMs.
result Asymptotical value of batch regret for add-constant predictors on memoryless and first-order Markov sources.
Motivation: Modelling methods that find structure in data are necessary with the current large volumes of genomic data, and there have been various efforts to find subsets of genes exhibiting consistent patterns over subsets of treatments. These biclustering techniques have focused on one data source, often gene expres…
Under covariate shift, training (source) data and testing (target) data differ in input space distribution, but share the same conditional label distribution. This poses a challenging machine learning task. Robust Bias-Aware (RBA) prediction provides the conditional label distribution that is robust to the worstcase lo…
In the era of big data, a large amount of noisy and incomplete data can be collected from multiple sources for prediction tasks. Combining multiple models or data sources helps to counteract the effects of low data quality and the bias of any single model or data source, and thus can improve the robustness and the perf…
We extend a recent synchronization analysis of exact finite-state sources to nonexact sources for which synchronization occurs only asymptotically. Although the proof methods are quite different, the primary results remain the same. We find that an observer's average uncertainty in the source state vanishes exponential…
Study derives error decay rates for kernel classification under source and capacity conditions.
problem Understanding prediction error decay rates for real data sets.
method Derived decay rates for misclassification error under Gaussian design for SVM and ridge classification.
result Rates accurately describe learning curves for data sets satisfying source and capacity conditions.
Proposes LVGP for multi-source data fusion in science and engineering.
problem Differences in quality and comprehensiveness of data sources.
method Latent Variable Gaussian Process (LVGP) framework.
result Improved predictions for sparse-data problems.
This work tackles robust multi-source domain adaptation under label shift.
problem Label shift and data contamination in multi-source domain adaptation.
method Domain-weighted empirical risk minimization framework with refinement procedure.
result The proposed method achieves superior performance in multi-category classification problems.
Bayesian model predicts iron deficiency from multi-source multi-way molecular data.
problem Predicting iron deficiency in rhesus monkeys from multi-source multi-way molecular data.
method Developed a Bayesian approach with a linear model incorporating multi-way dependence and varying signal sizes across sources.
result Model accurately classifies iron deficiency in monkeys and outperforms simpler models.
Paper proposes a method to predict disk failures using multi-layer domain adaptive learning.
problem Traditional machine learning models struggle to predict disk failures due to limited data.
method Multi-layer domain adaptive learning with source and target domains.
result The proposed method improves failure prediction accuracy on disk data with few failure samples.
RECaST calibrates source models for target populations with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in transfer learning predictions.
method Random effect calibration of source to target models.
result Nominal coverage of prediction sets in linear models, robust to nonlinear approximations.
Method constructs uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
problem Uniformly valid prediction sets across multiple distributions.
method Max-p aggregation scheme and optimization programs.
result Optimal and efficient prediction sets for multiple distributions.
The investment on the stock market is prone to be affected by the Internet. For the purpose of improving the prediction accuracy, we propose a multi-task stock prediction model that not only considers the stock correlations but also supports multi-source data fusion. Our proposed model first utilizes tensor to integrat…
Graph network predicts circRNA-disease associations using multi-source similarity features.
problem Identifying circRNA-disease associations is challenging and time-consuming.
method Proposes a graph convolution network framework using multi-source similarity information.
result Framework predicts circRNA-disease associations with promising results and outperforms existing methods.
Feature extraction from financial data is one of the most important problems in market prediction domain for which many approaches have been suggested. Among other modern tools, convolutional neural networks (CNN) have recently been applied for automatic feature selection and market prediction. However, in experiments …
Sporting events are extremely complex and require a multitude of metrics to accurate describe the event. When making multiple predictions, one should make them from a single source to keep consistency across the predictions. We present a multi-task learning method of generating multiple predictions for analysis via a s…
Backdoors can be implanted in neural models of source code, and we detect and remove them.
problem Vulnerability of neural models to backdoors in source code.
method Defined and implemented various backdoor classes, adapted robust statistics algorithms, and detected poisoned data through spectral signatures.
result Demonstrated the ease of injecting and removing backdoors in neural models of source code.
Study shows diverse data sources improve cryptocurrency forecasting models.
problem Improving cryptocurrency market forecasting accuracy.
method Integrating various data types, including on-chain metrics, traditional indices, and macroeconomic indicators.
result Data source diversity significantly enhances forecasting model performance.
Paper proposes a method to identify negative transfers in multitask learning using surrogate models.
problem Identifying subsets of source tasks that improve target task performance in multitask learning.
method Surrogate modeling to precompute multitask learning performances and approximate them with a linear regression model.
result The approach predicts negative transfers from multiple source tasks to target tasks more accurately than existing methods.
New approach predicts under latent shifts using high-dimensional images.
problem Prediction under latent subgroup shifts with high-dimensional observations.
method Recognition-parametrised model (RPM) for identifying causal latent structure.
result Successfully adapts predictions for high-dimensional image data.
Learning from multiple sources of information is an important problem in machine-learning research. The key challenges are learning representations and formulating inference methods that take into account the complementarity and redundancy of various information sources. In this paper we formulate a variational autoenc…
Paper proposes a new method to aggregate multiple sources with different label distributions.
problem Aggregating from multiple target-shifted sources with different label distributions.
method Unified framework to select relevant sources for domain adaptation with limited label, unsupervised, and label partial unsupervised scenarios.
result Empirical results significantly outperform baselines.
A new method for separating mixed signals in space and time.
problem Nonlinear and nonstationary spatio-temporal data challenges.
method Identifiable autoregressive variational autoencoder.
result The method outperforms existing techniques in blind source separation and spatio-temporal prediction.
The paper derives a new theorem for predicting batches of data.
problem Finding lower bounds on minimal batch regret.
method Derives a conditional version of the regret-capacity theorem.
result Reveals a connection between conditional Rényi divergence and conditional Sibson's mutual information.
We consider unsupervised domain adaptation: given labelled examples from a source domain and unlabelled examples from a related target domain, the goal is to infer the labels of target examples. Under the assumption that features from pre-trained deep neural networks are transferable across related domains, domain adap…
This paper improves stock price prediction using multimodal data.
problem Accurate stock price prediction with diverse data integration.
method Combining financial metrics, tweets, and news articles through multimodal machine learning.
result Significant performance improvement in stock price prediction by up to 5%.
ABO3 Perovskites' Formability Prediction and Crystal Structure Classification using Machine Learningcond-mat.mtrl-sci
Machine learning predicts perovskite formability and classifies crystal structures.
problem Predicting and classifying perovskite formability and crystal structures.
method Machine learning, specifically Random Forest, with 5-fold cross-validation.
result 98.57% accuracy in predicting perovskite formability and 90.53% in classifying crystal structures.
This study predicts parking availability using multi-source data and a self-supervised learning enhanced transformer.
problem Accurate parking availability prediction to support urban planning and management.
method Proposes SST-iTransformer, a self-supervised learning enhanced spatio-temporal inverted transformer, integrating multi-source data.
result SST-iTransformer achieves state-of-the-art performance in parking availability prediction.
Paper proposes hybrid modeling to improve surrogate accuracy using multiple data sources.
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy by integrating simulation and real-world data.
method Two novel probabilistic approaches: separate and combined surrogates with weighting strategy.
result Hybrid models improve predictive accuracy and coverage compared to single-source surrogates.
Bayesian transfer learning improves predictive performance with limited source data.
problem Improving statistical procedures with limited target and source datasets.
method Total risk prior for joint parameter distribution, Bayesian Lasso, model averaging, Gibbs sampling.
result Superior predictive performance compared to frequentist baseline, especially with limited source data.
Time Series Vector Autoregression Prediction of the Ecological Footprint based on Energy Parametersphysics.soc-ph
Sustainability became the most important component of world development, as countries worldwide fight the battle against the climate change. To understand the effects of climate change, the ecological footprint, along with the biocapacity should be observed. The big part of the ecological footprint, the carbon footprin…
Heterogenous Multi-Source Data Fusion Through Input Mapping and Latent Variable Gaussian Processstat.ML
Proposes a framework to fuse heterogeneous data sources for better modeling.
problem Heterogeneous data sources with different input parameter spaces.
method Input mapping calibration (IMC) and latent variable Gaussian process (LVGP).
result Improved predictive accuracy over single source models.